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Royals 8, Cubs 5                                            2026-08-13 · #1363
at Sokk Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 5    5    7    0
Kansas City             8    8    5    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shurtleff   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Segovia     rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Onyiuke     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-May     pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Santana     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Solis   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Casey       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sarkissian  c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Heinze  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Saprissa    3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Lamas   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kurth       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bailey      p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-O'Flahe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-McCullo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   5   7   3   0   0   4   3  12   0   0  0.233
  2B: Saprissa (7), Bailey (1), May (13).
  SB: Heinze (20), May (12).
  Squeeze: Heinze (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Onyiuke in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Santana in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Sarkissian in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Saprissa in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Kurth in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.
  g-Struck out for Solis in the 6th.
  h-Struck out in the 9th.

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Graham      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tanguilig   rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Talavera    3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Linnehan    c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Monson      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Gregory ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Fontes      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Espinoza    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Selden  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vera        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kortovich   p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Sabella ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Altamir pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Inglis  pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  f-Fuenzal ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Hsia    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Bortolo pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Press       j  ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   8   5   0   1   0   8  10  11   0   0  0.185
  3B: Press (1).
  SB: Tanguilig (9).
  a-Walked for Monson in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Espinoza in the 8th.
  c-Singled for Press in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Singled in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Gregory in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 7th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bailey ..............    31   24  89%    4    5    5    9    8    0  104    -
Boatright (L, 0-4) ..     5    3  11%    1    3    3    1    3    0   22  3-3

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kortovich (W, 13-5) .    18   15  56%    5    3    3    1    4    0   65    -
Kopinski (F, 12) ....    14   12  44%    1    2    2    2    8    0   52  1-0

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bailey (Outs 1-24) → Boatright (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Onyiuke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kurth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Kortovich (Outs 1-15) → Kopinski (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Linnehan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fontes (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Monson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Talavera (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Graham (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Vera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tanguilig (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Royals (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM CT. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 848316.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 20 Rich Linnehan Barry Bortolotti (2B) 0–1 —
B 20 Chico Press Connor Inglis (2B) 0–2 —
B 20 Chico Press Rich Linnehan (1B) 0–3 —
B 20 Barry Bortolotti Chico Press (3B) 0–4 —
B 24 Reinaldo Talavera Yung-chi Hsia (3B) 0–5 —
B 25 Chico Press Chris Selden (3B) 0–6 —
B 26 Barry Bortolotti Connor Inglis (3B) 0–7 —
B 26 Barry Bortolotti Reinaldo Talavera (2B) 0–8 —
T 14 Tomas Heinze Eddie Solis (3B) 1–8 1.85
T 14 Ivan Saprissa Tomas Heinze (1B) 2–8 1.62
T 15 Nathaniel Bailey Maurice Hollowell (1B) 3–8 1.50
T 19 Tomas Heinze Kristian O'Flaherty (3B) 4–8 1.88
T 20 Víctor Lamas Erick May (3B) 5–8 1.71
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sokk Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 278' · CF 521' · RF 288' · 32' wall). Bathtub.
Wire Basket
Cubs — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Jaume Santana — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA -11° · 87 ft Douglas Casey — single · EV 96 mph · LA -13° · 92 ft Samuel Sarkissian — single · EV 93 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Ivan Saprissa — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 155 ft Wyatt Conn — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +44° · 311 ft Víctor Lamas — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -3° · 78 ft Erick May — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +24° · 121 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Ivan Saprissa — double · EV 97 mph · LA +38° · 367 ft Davion Kurth — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA +5° · 89 ft Nathaniel Bailey — double · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 194 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft
Royals — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' George Graham — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Mario Espinoza — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 311 ft Efraín Sabella — single · EV 88 mph · LA -16° · 84 ft Jhonder Fuenzalida — single · EV 102 mph · LA -24° · 97 ft Barry Bortolotti — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +5° · 76 ft Reinaldo Talavera — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Eugenio Vera — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Chico Press — triple · EV 107 mph · LA +22° · 324 ft Barry Bortolotti — single · EV 65 mph · LA -5° · 62 ft Rich Linnehan — single · EV 110 mph · LA -12° · 104 ft George Graham — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +20° · 203 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
35% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 9.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wyatt Conn 88 / +44° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Nathaniel Bailey 95 / +16° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Teófilo Segovia 84 / -11° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Samuel Sarkissian 93 / -3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Ivan Saprissa 86 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Royals
65% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 7.8 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chico Press 107 / +22° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.32
Rich Linnehan 110 / -12° Oppo Single 2.0 → 1 -0.97
Mario Espinoza 92 / +34° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
George Graham 89 / +20° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Barry Bortolotti 65 / -5° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
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