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Marlins 7, Padres 5                                         2026-08-13 · #1368
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               5    5    6    0
Miami                   7    7    6    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Andrade     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Susnjar     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hulbert     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schwinger   rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Alemu       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Manzano     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   1   0  0.333
Salcido     cf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Lettiere    c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  a-Atehort pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Banuelos    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Clarke  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   .000
Pearman     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   6   0   0   0   5   5  13   1   0  0.222
  HBP: Susnjar (2), Alemu (3).
  a-Ran for Lettiere in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Banuelos in the 6th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Fitzgerald  p  ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Dibert      2b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Suárez      3b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   3   1   0  0.250
Nantze      j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Mangin      c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  1b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Enterline   rf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   7   6   4   0   0   7   4  13   1   0  0.207
  2B: Fitzgerald (5), Dibert (8), Suárez (15), Altamirano (6).
  SB: Chieh-yu (11).
  CS: Chieh-yu (17), Mangin (12).
  HBP: Nantze (1), Enterline (5).


PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hulbert (L, 6-14) ...    18   10  37%    5    7    7    2    5    0   66    -
Molin ...............    16   15  56%    1    0    0    2    7    0   65  1-0
Mori ................     1    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0    4  2-0

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgerald (W, 8-10)     34   27 100%    6    5    5    5   13    0  135    -

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hulbert (Outs 1-10) → Molin (Outs 11-25) → Mori (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 92°F · Wind out · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 277848.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 9.00
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 2.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Alex Dibert Randall Fitzgerald (1B) 0–1 —
B 5 Jason Enquist Alex Dibert (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Jean Altamirano Wallace Enterline (3B) 0–3 —
B 8 Kendall Suárez Wallace Enterline (3B) 0–4 —
B 8 Kendall Suárez Devon Mangin (2B) 0–5 —
B 8 Kendall Suárez Cary Nantze (1B) 0–6 —
B 10 Montavious Chieh-yu Randall Fitzgerald (2B) 0–7 —
T 19 Cary Schwinger Ángelo Salcido (3B) 1–7 2.62
T 19 Jefry Manzano Haxzel Andrade (3B) 2–7 2.25
T 22 Lucas Clarke Cary Schwinger (3B) 3–7 3.00
T 22 Reed Lettiere Ángelo Salcido (3B) 4–7 2.40
T 25 Mark Pearman Keshav Atehortua (3B) 5–7 4.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 9.00
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 2.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Padres — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Haxzel Andrade — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Stefan Banuelos — fly_out · EV 63 mph · LA +33° · 144 ft Mark Pearman — fielders_choice · EV 56 mph · LA -9° · 53 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Ángelo Salcido — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Haxzel Andrade — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Jefry Manzano — single · EV 81 mph · LA +0° · 77 ft Reed Lettiere — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Ángelo Salcido — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Jefry Manzano — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -20° · 50 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Randall Fitzgerald — single · EV 94 mph · LA +11° · 132 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 111 mph · LA +15° · 244 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 110 mph · LA -12° · 105 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -10° · 65 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -5° · 67 ft Kendall Suárez — double · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 137 ft Randall Fitzgerald — double · EV 110 mph · LA +27° · 395 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 90 mph · LA -13° · 86 ft Devon Mangin — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA -16° · 75 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -21° · 83 ft Jean Altamirano — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 173 ft Randall Fitzgerald — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +48° · 253 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
30% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+2.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reed Lettiere 76 / -1° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Stefan Banuelos 76 / +8° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Jefry Manzano 81 / +0° Center Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Ángelo Salcido 76 / +19° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Ángelo Salcido 76 / +12° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Marlins
70% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kendall Suárez 110 / -12° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -1.97
Jean Altamirano 100 / +13° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Montavious Chieh-yu 90 / -13° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Alex Dibert 111 / +15° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.54
Jason Enquist 87 / -21° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.34
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