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Astros 21, Stars 5                                          2026-08-14 · #1371
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Houston                21      0   21   16    0
Nashville               4      1    5    5    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Rivas   ph ......    3   4   3   0   0   1   4   1   0   1   0  1.000
Braun       1b ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Morales ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Moros       cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Neely       2b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.333
Thom        c  ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.250
Gómez       ss ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Takada      3b ......    5   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.200
Humphreys   rf ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.250
Faber       p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  c-Tassew  pr ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-O'Conno ph ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  e-Henríqu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  37  21  16   3   1   4  20   9   9   1   0  0.432
  2B: Gómez (11), Tassew (1), O'Connor (9).
  3B: Takada (1).
  HR: Braun (6), off Trujillo; Moros (3), off Louis; Humphreys (1), off Faríñez; Rivas (6), off Forrest.
  CS: Gómez (11).
  GIDP: Takada (5).
  a-Batted for Kingsbury in the 2nd.
  b-Batted for Braun in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Faber in the 4th.
  d-Batted in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Morales in the 9th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Coupe       3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Cooper      lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Karouani    1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Sappington  c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fusano      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Boattin     cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Torrero     2b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Trujillo    p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Burani  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   5   3   0   1   4   4  18   0   0  0.172
  2B: Spence (7), Boattin (7), Torrero (2).
  HR: Coupe (2), off Fenty.
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Faber (W, 4-7) ......    19   16   83  4.4    3    2    2    1   12    0    -
Fenty (F, 36) .......    13   11   58  4.5    2    3    2    3    6    1    -

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Trujillo ............     8    5   30  3.8    2    3    2    1    4    1    -
Forrest .............     4    2   17  4.2    1    4    3    1    0    1  1-1
Louis ...............    15   11   67  4.5    4    4    4    4    4    1    -
Scotti (L, 0-1) .....    13    6   42  3.2    6    5    5    3    0    0  2-2
Faríñez .............     5    3   26  5.2    2    5    4    0    1    1  3-2

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Faber (Outs 1-16) → Fenty (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Braun (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Neely (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Takada (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Trujillo (Outs 1-5) → Forrest (Outs 6-7) → Louis (Outs 8-18) → Scotti (Outs 19-24) → Faríñez (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Torrero (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  Seconds: HOU o26 (21-0), NSH o23 (4-21).
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 92°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 872125.
  Powerplays: Stars — Burani NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Fenty 1, off Trujillo 1, off Forrest 1, off Faríñez 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.44    Peak faced 13.50
    27 outs left: 2.44
    18 outs left: 3.67
     9 outs left: 7.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Brayan Braun Brayan Braun (HR) 1–0 —
T 1 Mirko Moros Brayan Braun (3B) 2–0 —
T 4 Masamichi Takada Van Neely (1B) 3–0 —
T 4 Korey Humphreys Masamichi Takada (3B) 4–0 —
T 5 Scoville Rivas Rhys Faber (1B) 5–0 —
T 5 Scoville Rivas Scoville Rivas (HR) 6–0 —
T 5 Brayan Braun Scoville Rivas (3B) 7–0 —
T 6 Mirko Moros Mirko Moros (HR) 8–0 —
T 11 Jeyland Morales Iapani Thom (3B) 9–0 —
T 11 Jeyland Morales Korey Humphreys (2B) 10–0 —
T 17 Shimeket Tassew Mayer Gómez (1B) 11–0 —
T 17 Scoville Rivas Jeyland Morales (3B) 12–0 —
T 17 Scoville Rivas Shimeket Tassew (2B) 13–0 —
T 18 Van Neely Scoville Rivas (3B) 14–0 —
T 19 Mayer Gómez Iapani Thom (1B) 15–0 —
T 23 Dante O'Connor Scoville Rivas (2B) 16–0 —
T 26 Korey Humphreys Angel Henríquez (3B) 17–0 —
T 26 Korey Humphreys Dante O'Connor (2B) 18–0 —
T 26 Korey Humphreys Van Neely (1B) 19–0 —
T 26 Korey Humphreys Korey Humphreys (HR) 20–0 —
T 26 Shimeket Tassew Korey Humphreys (3B) 21–0 —
B 9 Elias Torrero Pepe Boattin (3B) 21–1 3.50
B 21 Hady Coupe Khosilot El Karouani (1B) 21–2 10.00
B 21 Hady Coupe Hady Coupe (HR) 21–3 9.50
B 23 Derlis Trujillo Hady Coupe (3B) 21–4 13.50
seconds_second 2 Sean Spence Derlis Trujillo (3B) 21–5 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.44
Peak faced 13.50
27 outs left 2.44
18 outs left 3.67
9 outs left 7.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Astros — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 7 1B · 4 XBH · 4 HR
279' 373' 278' Brayan Braun — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +39° · 408 ft Mirko Moros — fly_out · EV 59 mph · LA +31° · 121 ft Masamichi Takada — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +14° · 197 ft Scoville Rivas — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +39° · 454 ft Van Neely — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 235 ft Dante O'Connor — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +30° · 313 ft Shimeket Tassew — double · EV 80 mph · LA +37° · 248 ft Brayan Braun — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -13° · 75 ft Mirko Moros — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Mayer Gómez — single · EV 87 mph · LA +24° · 226 ft Scoville Rivas — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Dante O'Connor — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -0° · 65 ft Shimeket Tassew — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -20° · 72 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Van Neely — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 90 mph · LA +15° · 163 ft Mayer Gómez — double · EV 103 mph · LA +22° · 289 ft Korey Humphreys — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 73 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 223 ft Shimeket Tassew — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 114 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Masamichi Takada — double_play · EV 111 mph · LA +2° · 106 ft Korey Humphreys — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +40° · 375 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Pepe Boattin — double · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 203 ft Derlis Trujillo — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -13° · 76 ft Justo Burani — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -9° · 69 ft Hady Coupe — hr · EV 96 mph · LA +31° · 325 ft Derlis Trujillo — single · EV 117 mph · LA +2° · 111 ft Sean Spence — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Elias Torrero — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 210 ft Hady Coupe — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 209 ft Tracy Fusano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 215 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
97% deserve-to-win  ·  14.2 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +6.8 vs expected
contact: 22.2 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 32.0 (+9.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Korey Humphreys 98 / +40° Oppo Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.55
Brayan Braun 102 / +39° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Masamichi Takada 103 / +14° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Shimeket Tassew 80 / +37° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Scoville Rivas 108 / +39° Oppo Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.12
Stars
3% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +2.4 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+5.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hady Coupe 96 / +31° Pull Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.93
Sean Spence 92 / +14° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Pepe Boattin 94 / +18° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Elias Torrero 92 / +19° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Derlis Trujillo 80 / -13° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.34
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