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Rockies 12, Cubs 1                                          2026-08-15 · #1382
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Colorado               12      -   12   10    0
Chicago                 1      0    1    3    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martinho    ss ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Holzworth   p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Porteño     c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   3   0   0  0.250
Ruidíaz     1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Herr        2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Kaiuway     3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Alderman    rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Goss        lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Otamendi    cf ......    4   4   3   1   0   2   4   0   0   0   0  0.750
  a-Poling  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35  12  10   3   0   3  11   3  14   0   0  0.286
  2B: Porteño (18), Kaiuway (12), Otamendi (18).
  HR: Martinho (27), off Campaz; Otamendi 2 (12), off Campaz, Bay-Regula.
  SB: Otamendi (10).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sarkissian  ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Onyiuke     1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Santana     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.000
Shurtleff   lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
May         c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Seol        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Lamas   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   3   0   0   0   1   2  18   0   1  0.115
  SB: Sarkissian (1), May (13).
  GIDP: Seol (7).
  a-Batted in the 7th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Holzworth (W, 11-1) .    14   13  48%    2    1    1    0   10    0   52    -
Malin (F, 47) .......    14   14  52%    1    0    0    2    8    0   56  1-0

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (L, 9-11) ....     9    5  19%    3    5    4    2    3    2   32    -
Schnugg .............    13    9  33%    3    4    3    1    4    0   47  1-1
Bay-Regula ..........    15   13  48%    3    3    3    0    7    1   65  1-1

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Holzworth (Outs 1-13) → Malin (Outs 14-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Herr (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kaiuway (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alderman (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-5) → Schnugg (Outs 6-14) → Bay-Regula (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | May (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Onyiuke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Seol (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted second; Rockies batted first.
  Seconds: CHC o26 (1-12).
  First pitch 1:10 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 655514.
  Walk-Back runs: off Campaz 1, off Schnugg 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 12.00
    27 outs left: 1.44
    18 outs left: 2.17
     9 outs left: 4.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Markeylin Martinho Markeylin Martinho (HR) 1–0 —
T 3 Justin Kaiuway Markeylin Martinho (3B) 2–0 —
T 5 Wesly Otamendi Justin Kaiuway (3B) 3–0 —
T 5 Wesly Otamendi Ahkhari Goss (1B) 4–0 —
T 5 Wesly Otamendi Wesly Otamendi (HR) 5–0 —
T 10 Justin Kaiuway Wesly Otamendi (3B) 6–0 —
T 14 Mario Porteño Wesly Otamendi (3B) 7–0 —
T 14 Mario Porteño Markeylin Martinho (1B) 8–0 —
T 14 Marco Ruidíaz Mario Porteño (2B) 9–0 —
T 15 Allen Alderman Marco Ruidíaz (3B) 10–0 —
T 15 Allen Alderman Ronald Herr (3B) 11–0 —
T 25 Wesly Otamendi Wesly Otamendi (HR) 12–0 —
B 9 Jaume Santana Samuel Sarkissian (3B) 12–1 2.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 12.00
27 outs left 1.44
18 outs left 2.17
9 outs left 4.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Rockies — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 3 HR
311' 428' 340' Markeylin Martinho — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Justin Kaiuway — double · EV 93 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 109 mph · LA +7° · 104 ft Wesly Otamendi — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Corey Holzworth — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 237 ft Markeylin Martinho — line_out · EV 113 mph · LA +15° · 250 ft Marco Ruidíaz — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 93 ft Justin Kaiuway — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +32° · 289 ft Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 235 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 98 mph · LA +28° · 323 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 160 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 106 mph · LA +4° · 101 ft Allen Alderman — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -7° · 65 ft Wesly Otamendi — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 448 ft Corey Holzworth — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +7° · 89 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Omni Onyiuke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 75 ft Samuel Sarkissian — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 229 ft Yong-soo Seol — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -14° · 53 ft Samuel Sarkissian — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +32° · 279 ft Omni Onyiuke — single · EV 81 mph · LA +18° · 150 ft Teófilo Segovia — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 176 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
94% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 19.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Markeylin Martinho 113 / +15° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Justin Kaiuway 93 / +18° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Wesly Otamendi 119 / +26° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Justin Kaiuway 90 / +32° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Mario Porteño 98 / +28° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Cubs
6% deserve-to-win  ·  2.2 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 3.5 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bryce Shurtleff 81 / +8° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Samuel Sarkissian 76 / +11° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Samuel Sarkissian 88 / +32° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Omni Onyiuke 81 / +18° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Omni Onyiuke 76 / +5° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
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