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Expos 15, Phillies 3                                        2026-08-15 · #1383
at Halloran Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Montreal               15      -   15   15    0
Philadelphia            3      0    3    5    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solórzano   lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Creek       3b ......    5   3   3   1   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Rezac       p  ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.500
Grizzlies   c  ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.200
Pérez       rf ......    5   2   2   2   0   0   5   0   2   0   0  0.400
Geffrard    cf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
MacKay      ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Goodson     2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Spence      1b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Deener  ph ......    3   2   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  37  15  15   6   0   1  15   4  11   0   0  0.405
  2B: Creek (18), Rezac 2 (5), Grizzlies (28), Pérez 2 (22).
  HR: Creek (8), off Lussi.
  SB: Solórzano (10), Pérez (14).
  HBP: Solórzano (4).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martín      3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Skeen       2b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Grizzlies   cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Andrade     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mattke      1b ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Santos      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Israilov    lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Moor        rf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Maynard     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-DelSign pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Awoniyi ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   3   5   1   0   1   2   4  13   0   0  0.185
  2B: Skeen (3).
  HR: Mattke (4), off Rezac.
  SB: Martín 2 (8).
  CS: Santos (10).
  a-Ran for Maynard in the 8th.
  b-Struck out in the 6th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rezac (W, 8-1) ......    17   14  52%    3    1    1    2    9    1   72    -
Chará (F, 29) .......    14   13  48%    2    2    2    2    5    0   53  2-1

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maynard .............    14   10  37%    4    3    3    2    3    0   46    -
Izoje ...............     4    1   4%    2    2    2    0    1    0   17  1-1
Lussi (L, 1-5) ......     8    5  19%    2    5    5    1    3    1   27  2-2
Sippel ..............     9    6  22%    4    3    2    0    2    0   33  1-1
Poruri ..............     7    5  19%    3    2    2    1    2    0   22  1-1

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Rezac (Outs 1-14) → Chará (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Spence (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | MacKay (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Pérez (Outs 1-27)

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Maynard (Outs 1-10) → Izoje (Outs 11-11) → Lussi (Outs 12-16) → Sippel (Outs 17-22) → Poruri (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Skeen (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Martín (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Moor (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Phillies (home) batted second; Expos batted first.
  Seconds: PHI o25 (3-15).
  First pitch 2:00 PM ET. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 619754.
  Walk-Back runs: off Sippel 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.78    Peak faced 19.50
    27 outs left: 1.78
    18 outs left: 2.50
     9 outs left: 4.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Roscoe Spence Raiden MacKay (2B) 1–0 —
T 10 Jordi Pérez Roscoe Spence (2B) 2–0 —
T 10 Jordi Pérez Quincy Geffrard (1B) 3–0 —
T 10 Maciek Grizzlies Jordi Pérez (2B) 4–0 —
T 10 David Rezac Maciek Grizzlies (2B) 5–0 —
T 14 Jordi Pérez David Rezac (3B) 6–0 —
T 14 Jordi Pérez Rónald Solórzano (2B) 7–0 —
T 14 Jordi Pérez Roscoe Spence (1B) 8–0 —
T 16 Fran Creek Jordi Pérez (3B) 9–0 —
T 16 Fran Creek Fran Creek (HR) 10–0 —
T 16 Gabe Deener Fran Creek (3B) 11–0 —
T 18 Raiden MacKay Gabe Deener (2B) 12–0 —
T 22 Fran Creek David Rezac (2B) 13–0 —
T 22 Gabe Deener Fran Creek (2B) 14–0 —
T 23 Fran Creek Gabe Deener (1B) 15–0 —
B 2 Anthony Mattke Anthony Mattke (HR) 15–1 1.80
B 14 Zach Grizzlies Anthony Mattke (2B) 15–2 3.23
B 17 Anthony Mattke Jahiem Moor (3B) 15–3 3.90
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.78
Peak faced 19.50
27 outs left 1.78
18 outs left 2.50
9 outs left 4.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Halloran Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 271' · CF 492' · RF 299' · 36' wall). Bathtub.
Expos — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 8 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 112 mph · LA -5° · 107 ft Quincy Geffrard — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 83 ft Raiden MacKay — single · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft Marquis Goodson — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Roscoe Spence — single · EV 89 mph · LA +15° · 157 ft Gabe Deener — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 124 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Marquis Goodson — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 299 ft Jordi Pérez — double · EV 114 mph · LA +17° · 290 ft Maciek Grizzlies — double · EV 117 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft David Rezac — double · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 213 ft Gabe Deener — single · EV 100 mph · LA -13° · 95 ft Jordi Pérez — double · EV 115 mph · LA +18° · 309 ft Fran Creek — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -4° · 67 ft Quincy Geffrard — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -4° · 92 ft Gabe Deener — single · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Raiden MacKay — single · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Jordi Pérez — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft David Rezac — double · EV 118 mph · LA +15° · 274 ft Fran Creek — single · EV 82 mph · LA +7° · 78 ft Quincy Geffrard — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +3° · 93 ft Fran Creek — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 277 ft
Phillies — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 93 mph · LA +8° · 97 ft Anthony Mattke — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 315 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Sandy Santos — line_out · EV 61 mph · LA +15° · 74 ft Jahiem Moor — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 87 ft Anthony Mattke — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Zach Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +9° · 76 ft Bryan Andrade — single · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 87 ft Godfrey Skeen — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Godfrey Skeen — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
96% deserve-to-win  ·  13.4 expected runs
actual 15 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 22.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Maciek Grizzlies 117 / +42° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.58
Marquis Goodson 100 / +24° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
David Rezac 98 / +17° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Raiden MacKay 80 / -11° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Maciek Grizzlies 112 / -5° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Phillies
4% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+4.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthony Mattke 92 / +34° Pull Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.06
Godfrey Skeen 92 / +12° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Nicolas Martín 76 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Bryan Andrade 92 / -9° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Zach Grizzlies 80 / +9° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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