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Nationals 23, Guardians 4                                   2026-08-16 · #1389
at Tannery Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Cleveland               4      0    4    5    0
Washington             23      0   23   19    0

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Granberry   2b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Carmona     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Mayotte     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Velez       c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Anwunah     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Brymer      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Cosper      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Céspedes    ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Galíndez    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
  a-Batt    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   4   5   1   0   0   3   3   9   0   3  0.200
  2B: Velez (11).
  HBP: Galíndez (1).
  GIDP: Brymer (4).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Burrows     c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Miguelito   lf ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.600
Pastore     2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
Thompkins   rf ......    5   5   3   1   0   2   6   0   1   0   0  0.600
Corrales    cf ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.400
Alvarado    3b ......    5   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.200
Baloy       1b ......    5   3   3   1   1   0   4   1   1   0   0  0.600
Menz        ss ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.600
Abadía      p  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   1   2   0   1  0.250
  a-DeMelo  ph ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  43  23  19   9   1   3  22   5  10   0   1  0.442
  2B: Miguelito 2 (11), Thompkins (8), Corrales (5), Alvarado (10), Baloy (3), Menz 2 (4), DeMelo (8).
  3B: Baloy (2).
  HR: Thompkins 2 (3), off Galíndez, Chadwick; Abadía (2), off Chadwick.
  a-Batted in the 3rd.

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Galíndez ............    13    4  15%    6    6    5    3    2    1   45    -
Robles (L, 1-3) .....    10    4  15%    5    8    8    2    2    0   39  2-2
Fazio ...............    14    9  33%    5    6    6    0    3    0   42  1-0
Chadwick ............    10   10  37%    2    3    3    0    3    2   22  1-1

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía (W, 8-18) ....    12   13  48%    1    0    0    0    6    0   42    -
Clemente ............    14   11  41%    3    3    3    3    3    0   49    -
Gilliom .............     3    3  11%    1    1    1    0    0    0   14  2-0

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Galíndez (Outs 1-4) → Robles (Outs 5-8) → Fazio (Outs 9-17) → Chadwick (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Velez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mayotte (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Anwunah (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cosper (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Brymer (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-13) → Clemente (Outs 14-24) → Gilliom (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Menz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted first; Guardians batted second.
  Seconds: CLE o26 (4-23), WSN o26 (23-0).
  First pitch 1:35 PM ET. Weather: 91°F · Wind in · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 92158.
  Walk-Back runs: off Galíndez 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.67    Peak faced 60.00
    27 outs left: 2.67
    18 outs left: 4.00
     9 outs left: 7.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Damion Thompkins Devron San Miguelito (2B) 0–1 —
B 1 Damion Thompkins Marcos Pastore (1B) 0–2 —
B 1 Damion Thompkins Damion Thompkins (HR) 0–3 —
B 1 Renaldo Corrales Damion Thompkins (3B) 0–4 —
B 2 Kendry Baloy Renaldo Corrales (2B) 0–5 —
B 3 Basil Burrows Kendry Baloy (2B) 0–6 —
B 5 Damion Thompkins Frickson Abadía (3B) 0–7 —
B 5 Damion Thompkins Basil Burrows (1B) 0–8 —
B 6 Kendry Baloy Damion Thompkins (2B) 0–9 —
B 6 Kendry Baloy Júnior Alvarado (1B) 0–10 —
B 7 Dante DeMelo Kendry Baloy (3B) 0–11 —
B 7 Dante DeMelo Raz Menz (2B) 0–12 —
B 7 Devron San Miguelito Dante DeMelo (2B) 0–13 —
B 7 Marcos Pastore Devron San Miguelito (2B) 0–14 —
B 9 Júnior Alvarado Damion Thompkins (1B) 0–15 —
B 10 Raz Menz Júnior Alvarado (2B) 0–16 —
B 12 Raz Menz Raz Menz (3B) 0–17 —
B 12 Kendry Baloy Raz Menz (1B) 0–18 —
B 12 Júnior Alvarado Kendry Baloy (3B) 0–19 —
B 15 Devron San Miguelito Renaldo Corrales (1B) 0–20 —
B 16 Frickson Abadía Devron San Miguelito (2B) 0–21 —
B 16 Frickson Abadía Frickson Abadía (HR) 0–22 —
B 21 Damion Thompkins Damion Thompkins (HR) 0–23 —
T 17 Boris Carmona Boris Carmona (3B) 1–23 6.90
T 19 Eddie Velez Kemari Granberry (3B) 2–23 8.25
T 22 Jovani Galíndez Eddie Velez (3B) 3–23 12.60
T 23 Tayavek Céspedes Tayavek Céspedes (2B) 4–23 15.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.67
Peak faced 60.00
27 outs left 2.67
18 outs left 4.00
9 outs left 7.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Guardians — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Kemari Granberry — single · EV 75 mph · LA -4° · 71 ft Eddie Velez — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA -16° · 55 ft Jovani Galíndez — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -12° · 62 ft Anthony Brymer — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 348 ft Jovani Galíndez — fielders_choice · EV 97 mph · LA -9° · 92 ft Aleksandar Cosper — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -14° · 81 ft Boris Carmona — single · EV 105 mph · LA +4° · 99 ft Kemari Granberry — single · EV 97 mph · LA +7° · 92 ft Eddie Velez — double · EV 108 mph · LA +10° · 158 ft Anthony Brymer — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 277 ft Boris Carmona — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 246 ft Aleksandar Cosper — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 81 ft Tayavek Céspedes — single · EV 77 mph · LA +2° · 73 ft Anthony Brymer — double_play · EV 82 mph · LA -14° · 78 ft Aleksandar Cosper — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 113 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
30 BIP· 5 1B · 10 XBH · 3 HR
331' 438' 348' Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 116 mph · LA -1° · 110 ft Damion Thompkins — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Renaldo Corrales — double · EV 107 mph · LA +15° · 229 ft Kendry Baloy — single · EV 96 mph · LA -15° · 91 ft Dante DeMelo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 232 ft Basil Burrows — single · EV 119 mph · LA +1° · 113 ft Damion Thompkins — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 184 ft Kendry Baloy — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 97 mph · LA -7° · 92 ft Júnior Alvarado — double · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 230 ft Raz Menz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 237 ft Frickson Abadía — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -13° · 95 ft Dante DeMelo — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 392 ft Devron San Miguelito — double · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Damion Thompkins — error · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Renaldo Corrales — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 125 ft Kendry Baloy — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +12° · 123 ft Raz Menz — single · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +10° · 158 ft Frickson Abadía — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Dante DeMelo — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 232 ft Kendry Baloy — triple · EV 117 mph · LA +17° · 299 ft Devron San Miguelito — double · EV 99 mph · LA +18° · 234 ft Raz Menz — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +13° · 143 ft Júnior Alvarado — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 75 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -3° · 83 ft Renaldo Corrales — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -14° · 84 ft Damion Thompkins — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Raz Menz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 180 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Guardians
8% deserve-to-win  ·  5.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthony Brymer 100 / +30° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Boris Carmona 94 / +22° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Aleksandar Cosper 88 / +11° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Kemari Granberry 75 / -4° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Tayavek Céspedes 77 / +2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Nationals
92% deserve-to-win  ·  18.8 expected runs
actual 23 runs  ·  +4.2 vs expected
contact: 37.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 38.0 (+0.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dante DeMelo 100 / +39° Pull Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Dante DeMelo 100 / +18° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Marcos Pastore 107 / +10° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Kendry Baloy 117 / +17° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.29
Kendry Baloy 92 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
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