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Braves 12, Brewers 10                                       2026-08-16 · #1390
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee              10   10    9    0
Atlanta                12   12   16    1

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Trejo       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mesidor     c  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Gentry      lf ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Edwards     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kaplan      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-William ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Penickova   3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Flores      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Johnston    cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Saravia pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cortizo     p  ......    2   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   1  1.000
  e-Struthe ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Kass    ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Chura   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ayers       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0  1.000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29  10   9   3   0   1   9   6  10   1   1  0.310
  2B: Mesidor (34), Gentry (11), Penickova (7).
  HR: Cortizo (5), off Homans.
  HBP: Penickova (1).
  a-Batted for Trejo in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Edwards in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Kaplan in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Johnston in the 4th.
  e-Walked for Cortizo in the 7th.
  f-Grounded out for Eggleston in the 6th.
  g-Grounded out for Ayers in the 7th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vargas      rf ......    4   2   4   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Chu         ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nilo        cf ......    4   1   3   0   1   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.750
Homans      p  ......    3   3   2   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.667
Spencer     lf ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bray        2b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.250
Nightingale 1b ......    4   1   1   0   1   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
  a-Kaloger ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Weah        j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  36  12  16   3   3   1  12   3  12   0   1  0.444
  2B: Vargas 2 (14), Sauerbrunn (14).
  3B: Nilo (3), Homans (1), Nightingale (2).
  HR: Spencer (5), off Cortizo.
  CS: Sauerbrunn (11).
  E: Sauerbrunn (5).
  HBP: Chu (4).
  a-Struck out in the 8th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cortizo (L, 12-4) ...    15    9  33%    8    7    6    0    1    1   46    -
August ..............    14   11  41%    6    2    2    0    7    0   52  1-1
Freeman .............    10    7  26%    2    3    3    3    4    0   47  1-1

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Homans ..............    16   11  41%    5    5    5    2    4    1   62    -
Chourio .............    12    9  33%    3    4    4    2    4    0   37  1-1
Barcello (W, 2-4) ...     8    7  26%    1    1    1    2    2    0   27  1-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cortizo (Outs 1-9) → August (Outs 10-20) → Freeman (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Penickova (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Johnston (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edwards (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Homans (Outs 1-11) → Chourio (Outs 12-20) → Barcello (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vargas (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Brewers batted second.
  First pitch 4:05 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 492135.
  Powerplays: Brewers — Chura NF (O3)
  Walk-Back runs: off Cortizo 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 4.00
    27 outs left: 1.44
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Oscar Nilo Mariano Vargas (2B) 0–1 —
B 2 Zack Spencer Ned Homans (1B) 0–2 —
B 2 Zack Spencer Zack Spencer (HR) 0–3 —
B 2 Hugo Bray Zack Spencer (3B) 0–4 —
B 5 Donny Nightingale Sean Ramon-Edwards (2B) 0–5 —
B 5 Cormani Weah Donny Nightingale (3B) 0–6 —
B 9 Ned Homans Cormani Weah (1B) 0–7 —
B 9 Oscar Nilo Ned Homans (3B) 0–8 —
B 13 Akili Sauerbrunn Mariano Vargas (3B) 0–9 —
B 23 Oscar Nilo Ned Homans (3B) 0–10 —
B 23 Oscar Nilo Akili Sauerbrunn (2B) 0–11 —
B 24 Mariano Vargas Oscar Nilo (3B) 0–12 —
T 2 Raymond Penickova Noel Gentry (3B) 1–12 1.44
T 2 Raymond Penickova Daniel Edwards (1B) 2–12 1.32
T 6 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (HR) 3–12 1.43
T 6 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (3B) 4–12 1.29
T 10 Jesse Williams Sergio Saravia (3B) 5–12 1.41
T 12 Noel Gentry Raymond Penickova (3B) 6–12 1.40
T 12 Stan Mesidor Noel Gentry (2B) 7–12 1.20
T 20 Stan Mesidor Toshihiro Ishida (2B) 8–12 2.14
T 20 Stan Mesidor Thierry Kass (1B) 9–12 1.71
T 24 Clifford Irving Percy Nava (3B) 10–12 3.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 4.00
27 outs left 1.44
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Brewers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
368' 355' 345' Stan Mesidor — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 100 mph · LA -17° · 95 ft Raymond Penickova — double · EV 99 mph · LA +12° · 156 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -6° · 75 ft Raul Johnston — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +1° · 75 ft Oscar Cortizo — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Noel Gentry — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 369 ft Thierry Kass — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA -12° · 89 ft Percy Nava — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Jon Chura — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -26° · 66 ft Percy Nava — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 73 ft Oscar Cortizo — single · EV 94 mph · LA -10° · 90 ft Raul Johnston — single · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 83 mph · LA -6° · 79 ft Raymond Penickova — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -9° · 73 ft Clifford Irving — error · EV 104 mph · LA +5° · 98 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 9 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
368' 355' 345' Mariano Vargas — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 257 ft Oscar Nilo — single · EV 100 mph · LA -21° · 95 ft Zack Spencer — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 194 ft Donny Nightingale — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Cormani Weah — single · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Donny Nightingale — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +11° · 176 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Ned Homans — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 293 ft Oscar Nilo — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Mariano Vargas — double · EV 119 mph · LA +19° · 349 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — double · EV 114 mph · LA +10° · 183 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 111 ft Ned Homans — single · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Mariano Vargas — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Oscar Nilo — triple · EV 113 mph · LA +19° · 312 ft Mariano Vargas — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 121 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
42% deserve-to-win  ·  8.4 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 12.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Raymond Penickova 99 / +12° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Percy Nava 68 / +5° Center Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Stan Mesidor 83 / -6° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Stan Mesidor 100 / +25° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Oscar Cortizo 94 / -10° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Braves
58% deserve-to-win  ·  9.9 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 20.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (+8.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donny Nightingale 108 / +11° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.61
Ned Homans 100 / +24° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Oscar Nilo 113 / +19° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.29
Cormani Weah 88 / -2° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Mariano Vargas 88 / -2° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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