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Canaries 12, Astros 11                                      2026-08-16 · #1391
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey             12   12    9    0
Houston                11   11    9    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Nachand     2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
  a-Barron  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kerr        rf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Israel      p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Pastore     c  ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.667
Campos      ss ......    1   4   1   0   0   1   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
Cordero     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rushing     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Savides ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Gutierr pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Navarro pr ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26  12   9   4   0   1  11   3  10   0   0  0.346
  2B: Israel (6), Pastore 2 (8), Navarro (6).
  HR: Campos (9), off Francavilla.
  SB: Barron (1).
  a-Ran for Nachand in the 6th.
  b-Struck out for Rushing in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Hollenbeck in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Tassew  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Braun       2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Herrera ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Moros       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-O'Conno ph ......    3   1   2   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Thom        c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gómez       1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Prince      cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Humphre pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Konig       rf ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Morales ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ayala       p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Rivas   ph ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  g-Arboled ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  11   9   4   1   1   8   2  10   0   1  0.281
  2B: Neely (4), Prince (3), Ayala (4), O'Connor (11).
  3B: O'Connor (1).
  HR: Konig (2), off Israel.
  SB: Braun (15).
  HBP: Neely (1).
  a-Ran for Kingsbury in the 5th.
  b-Struck out for Braun in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Moros in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Prince in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Konig in the 3rd.
  f-Batted for Ayala in the 2nd.
  g-Grounded out for Humphreys in the 7th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Israel ..............    15   10   62  4.1    6    6    5    0    4    1    -
Thom (W, 1-0) .......    16   13   64  4.0    1    5    5    2    6    0  1-1
Tesfaye .............     5    4   15  3.0    1    0    0    0    2    0    -

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Ayala (L, 8-3) ......    17   12   76  4.5    3    4    4    2    7    0    -
Francavilla .........     4    1   12  3.0    2    4    4    1    0    1  1-1
Abrams ..............     5    3   16  3.2    2    2    1    0    3    0  1-1
Basham ..............     2    1    9  4.5    2    2    2    0    0    0  1-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-10) → Thom (Outs 11-23) → Tesfaye (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ayala (Outs 1-12) → Francavilla (Outs 13-13) → Abrams (Outs 14-16) → Basham (Outs 17-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Braun (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Moros (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Prince (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Konig (Outs 1-17)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 1:05 PM CT. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 246519.
  Walk-Back runs: off Israel 1, off Abrams 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 2.00
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 1.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 4 Van Neely Brayan Braun (3B) 0–1 —
B 5 Cedrick Konig Van Neely (2B) 0–2 —
B 5 Cedrick Konig Cedrick Konig (HR) 0–3 —
B 5 Abdiel Ayala Cedrick Konig (3B) 0–4 —
B 10 Iapani Thom Korey Humphreys (2B) 0–5 —
B 10 Dante O'Connor Iapani Thom (1B) 0–6 —
B 10 Brayan Braun Dante O'Connor (3B) 0–7 —
B 14 Mayer Gómez Shimeket Tassew (3B) 0–8 —
B 16 Bernie Herrera Scoville Rivas (3B) 0–9 —
B 19 Jeyland Morales Van Neely (3B) 0–10 —
B 21 Van Neely Mayer Gómez (3B) 0–11 —
T 5 Tripp Hollenbeck Jerome Kerr (3B) 1–11 1.50
T 7 Levar Nachand Hugo Campos (3B) 2–11 1.50
T 12 Renaldo Pastore Ramón Navarro (3B) 3–11 1.80
T 12 Renaldo Pastore Hugo Campos (1B) 4–11 1.60
T 13 Renaldo Pastore Jerome Kerr (1B) 5–11 1.50
T 13 Renaldo Pastore Renaldo Pastore (3B) 6–11 1.29
T 13 Hugo Campos Renaldo Pastore (2B) 7–11 1.07
T 13 Hugo Campos Hugo Campos (HR) 8–11 0.86
T 13 Ramón Navarro Hugo Campos (3B) 9–11 0.64
T 16 Tripp Hollenbeck Ramón Navarro (3B) 10–11 0.55
T 17 Levar Nachand Edwin Gutierrez (2B) 11–11 0.30
T 17 Edwin Gutierrez Brandon Barron (2B) 12–11 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 2.00
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 1.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Canaries — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 4 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Jerome Kerr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +49° · 395 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +14° · 234 ft Raziel Israel — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -10° · 78 ft Hugo Campos — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Ramón Navarro — double · EV 114 mph · LA +26° · 406 ft Edwin Gutierrez — single · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 248 ft Levar Nachand — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +35° · 306 ft Raziel Israel — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 307 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 119 mph · LA +15° · 290 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 304 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 78 mph · LA +2° · 74 ft Levar Nachand — single · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 107 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Marcos Kingsbury — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -18° · 83 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -5° · 85 ft Van Neely — double · EV 107 mph · LA +21° · 303 ft Cedrick Konig — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +33° · 470 ft Abdiel Ayala — double · EV 96 mph · LA +30° · 315 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Dante O'Connor — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 269 ft Yasniel Arboleda — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 103 ft Jeff Prince — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 160 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 82 mph · LA +7° · 78 ft Jeyland Morales — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 259 ft Van Neely — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft Mayer Gómez — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +43° · 309 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 99 mph · LA +11° · 141 ft Iapani Thom — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +21° · 205 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 361 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
45% deserve-to-win  ·  8.0 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +4.0 vs expected
contact: 16.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renaldo Pastore 110 / +14° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.47
Levar Nachand 90 / +35° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Ramón Navarro 114 / +26° Oppo Double 2.9 → 2 -0.93
Tripp Hollenbeck 78 / +2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Raziel Israel 100 / +25° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.66
Astros
55% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 18.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scoville Rivas 100 / +32° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.95
Dante O'Connor 100 / +21° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Jeyland Morales 100 / +20° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Mayer Gómez 88 / +43° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Jeff Prince 92 / +37° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
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