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Red Sox 6, Phillies 5                                       2026-08-16 · #1396
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            5    5    4    1
Boston                  6    6    9    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Skeen       2b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Grizzlies   cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Santos  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Andrade     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Awoniyi ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mattke      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Moor        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-DelSign pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Tabaracci   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Israilo ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ka'apana    ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Vásquez     3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Gullett     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Martín  pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ferguson-Re j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   5   4   2   0   0   5   6  11   0   0  0.143
  2B: Gullett (4), DelSignore (9).
  E: Skeen (1).
  a-Ran for Grizzlies in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Andrade in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Moor in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Tabaracci in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Gullett in the 3rd.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Rowley  ph ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Venegas     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Harrell     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Falby       1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Cordano     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Pope        c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Castillo    p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Miranda ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Echever pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Núñez   pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Tatum   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   6   9   2   0   0   5   6  10   0   0  0.321
  2B: Falby (18), Núñez (2).
  CS: Harrell (11), Nytes (3), Falby (10).
  a-Batted for Suazo in the 3rd.
  b-Batted in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Miranda in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Gullett .............    12    7  26%    4    3    1    3    3    0   44    -
Bisgrove (L, 0-3) ...     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    1    0   11  2-2
Quintana ............    14   15  56%    3    0    0    2    3    0   56  2-0
Flam ................     4    3  11%    1    1    1    0    3    0   13  1-1

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (W, 4-5) ...    24   21  78%    3    3    3    3    9    0   87    -
Schellenger (F, 32) .     9    6  22%    1    2    2    3    2    0   41  1-0

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Gullett (Outs 1-7) → Bisgrove (Outs 8-9) → Quintana (Outs 10-24) → Flam (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Skeen (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Vásquez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ka'apana (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moor (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tabaracci (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-21) → Schellenger (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pope (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Phillies batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 154594.
  Powerplays: Phillies — Martín NF (O8)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 4 Vinicius Cordano Inman Nytes (3B) 0–1 —
B 7 Ivo Malard Denis Echeverría (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Ivo Malard Raymond Rowley (2B) 0–3 —
B 7 Daylan Miranda Bernard Strachan (3B) 0–4 —
B 7 Pancho Pfister Ivo Malard (3B) 0–5 —
B 25 Walter Núñez Denis Echeverría (1B) 0–6 —
T 16 Nicolas Martín Nicolas Martín (3B) 1–6 1.64
T 21 Patrick DelSignore Alberto Vásquez (2B) 2–6 2.50
T 21 Patrick DelSignore Vitas Anthony (1B) 3–6 2.00
T 24 Alberto Vásquez Bright Awoniyi (3B) 4–6 3.00
T 26 Daniel Israilov Godfrey Skeen (2B) 5–6 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Phillies — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Zach Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -0° · 71 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -12° · 91 ft Andres Gullett — double · EV 106 mph · LA +33° · 409 ft Patrick DelSignore — double · EV 98 mph · LA +12° · 153 ft Anthony Mattke — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Nicolas Martín — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -12° · 57 ft Daniel Israilov — line_out · EV 69 mph · LA +18° · 113 ft Godfrey Skeen — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -22° · 89 ft Alberto Vásquez — single · EV 74 mph · LA +19° · 131 ft Jerome Ka'apana — line_out · EV 73 mph · LA +26° · 167 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +10° · 105 ft Daniel Israilov — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +5° · 76 ft Alberto Vásquez — single · EV 82 mph · LA +9° · 85 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Inman Nytes — single · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 95 ft Jide Falby — double · EV 83 mph · LA +47° · 276 ft Vinicius Cordano — single · EV 90 mph · LA +21° · 217 ft Raymond Rowley — error · EV 80 mph · LA -3° · 76 ft Ivo Malard — single · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Daylan Miranda — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 120 ft Walter Núñez — double · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 225 ft Ferdi Pope — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 298 ft Denis Echeverría — single · EV 105 mph · LA +8° · 124 ft Pancho Pfister — single · EV 91 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Inman Nytes — single · EV 95 mph · LA +6° · 90 ft Jide Falby — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Ferdi Pope — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 160 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
61% deserve-to-win  ·  5.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Patrick DelSignore 98 / +12° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Andres Gullett 106 / +33° Pull Double 2.9 → 2 -0.88
Anthony Mattke 89 / +10° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Anthony Mattke 96 / +6° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Alberto Vásquez 74 / +19° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Red Sox
39% deserve-to-win  ·  4.6 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jide Falby 83 / +47° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Ferdi Pope 96 / +27° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Walter Núñez 96 / +19° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Ferdi Pope 86 / +16° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Pancho Pfister 91 / +4° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
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