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Giants 8, Orcas 4                                           2026-08-16 · #1395
at Kolenda Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver               4    4    3    0
San Francisco           8    8    7    1

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Krickstein  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Badger      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Kiesewetter p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-McInern pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Delía       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Beigel      rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Godín       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Edmonso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Noonan      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Irvin   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Quintero    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Millar  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Granber ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Teeguar pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Roker       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   3   0   0   0   4   4  15   0   0  0.103
  SB: Edmonson (3).
  HBP: Granberry (3).
  a-Ran for Kiesewetter in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Godín in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Noonan in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Quintero in the 6th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 5th.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Matos       rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Kelley      ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Cardozo     1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Rosado  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Galloway    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Jimenez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hoffken     3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Braxton     2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Marte       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Figuero pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
McNeal      c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Mateas      p  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.667
  d-Reyes   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lacasse     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sundling    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   8   7   2   0   0   8   5  16   0   1  0.241
  2B: Hoffken (6), Mateas (5).
  CS: Braxton (5), Mateas (6).
  E: Rosado (1).
  GIDP: Hoffken (2).
  a-Ran for Cardozo in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Galloway in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Marte in the 4th.
  d-Struck out for Rosado in the 5th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kiesewetter (L, 4-10)     20   13  48%    5    6    6    4    7    0   66    -
Aupiu ...............    14   14  52%    2    2    2    1    9    0   66  2-2

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mateas (W, 15-10) ...    28   20  74%    3    4    4    3   11    0  109    -
Villasanti (F, 7) ...     6    7  26%    0    0    0    1    4    0   22  2-0

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kiesewetter (Outs 1-13) → Aupiu (Outs 14-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Krickstein (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Godín (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Beigel (Outs 1-27)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Mateas (Outs 1-20) → Villasanti (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Braxton (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted first; Orcas batted second.
  First pitch 1:35 PM PT. Weather: 70°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 526106.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 5.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Maximo Cardozo Antolín Matos (2B) 0–1 —
B 1 Brad Galloway Alafia Kelley (3B) 0–2 —
B 8 Maximo Cardozo Orien Hoffken (3B) 0–3 —
B 9 Hervé Capdevila Ignacio Rosado (2B) 0–4 —
B 13 Tally Mateas Raziel Jimenez (3B) 0–5 —
B 13 Tally Mateas Manolo Figueroa (2B) 0–6 —
B 18 Stefan Braxton Parker McNeal (3B) 0–7 —
B 18 Manolo Figueroa Tally Mateas (3B) 0–8 —
T 16 Taylor Kiesewetter Alexis Edmonson (3B) 1–8 2.18
T 16 Taylor Kiesewetter Ivan Teeguarden (2B) 2–8 1.91
T 18 Amarien Beigel Lipe McInerney (3B) 3–8 2.00
T 20 John Millar Prakash Granberry (3B) 4–8 2.14
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 5.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Orcas — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Amarien Beigel — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -22° · 54 ft Yerry Cuéllar — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +4° · 68 ft Norris Mendez — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -5° · 60 ft Amarien Beigel — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +7° · 52 ft Omar Godín — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 76 ft Taylor Kiesewetter — error · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 121 ft John Millar — single · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 112 ft Amarien Beigel — infield_single · EV 65 mph · LA -7° · 62 ft Louis Badger — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +33° · 232 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Antolín Matos — single · EV 64 mph · LA +16° · 86 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 89 mph · LA +10° · 112 ft Maximo Cardozo — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +8° · 71 ft Brad Galloway — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -16° · 63 ft Orien Hoffken — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 374 ft Hervé Capdevila — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA -10° · 90 ft Tally Mateas — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 182 ft Manolo Figueroa — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +5° · 75 ft Antolín Matos — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +2° · 82 ft Maximo Cardozo — single · EV 95 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Orien Hoffken — double_play · EV 89 mph · LA +10° · 106 ft Stefan Braxton — single · EV 83 mph · LA +4° · 79 ft Tally Mateas — single · EV 82 mph · LA +19° · 167 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
25% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 2.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Amarien Beigel 65 / -7° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Yerry Cuéllar 72 / +4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Omar Godín 78 / +9° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Taylor Kiesewetter 79 / +14° Pull Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Louis Badger 80 / +33° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Giants
75% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +4.4 vs expected
contact: 7.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tally Mateas 92 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Orien Hoffken 89 / +10° Center Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Stefan Braxton 83 / +4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Antolín Matos 64 / +16° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Maximo Cardozo 95 / +6° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
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