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Orioles 7, Marlins 6                                        2026-08-16 · #1394
at Deifel Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               7    7    5    0
Miami                   6    6    8    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Heath   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mateer      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kagame      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-López   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Schloss     cf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
  c-Stokke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kautz       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Shaffer     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  d-Barba   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   7   5   2   0   0   6   6  10   0   1  0.185
  2B: Schloss 2 (13).
  SB: Barba (7).
  HBP: Kagame (2).
  a-Grounded out for Foust in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Kagame in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Schloss in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Shaffer in the 3rd.
  e-Struck out for Thompson in the 7th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Altamirano  1b ......    3   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Narazak pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Trevino     3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Chieh-y ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Suggs       cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Mangin  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Suárez      2b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Dibert      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   1  0.000
Baird       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   4   0   1   0   1  0.333
  d-Chappel pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Enquist ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Corzo   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nantze      j  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   6   8   0   1   0   6   4  11   0   2  0.276
  3B: Altamirano (4).
  CS: Blackman (8), Suggs (7).
  GIDP: Nantze (2).
  a-Ran for Altamirano in the 7th.
  b-Walked for Trevino in the 7th.
  c-Struck out for Suggs in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Baird in the 8th.
  e-Grounded out for Mangin in the 7th.
  f-Struck out for Chieh-yu in the 9th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Shaffer (W, 9-3) ....    26   22  81%    7    5    5    3    8    0   99    -
Luqueño (F, 31) .....     7    5  19%    1    1    1    1    3    0   30  1-0

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baird (L, 6-19) .....    31   24  89%    4    5    5    5   11    0   94    -
Entringer ...........     4    3  11%    1    2    2    1    0    0   15  3-2

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-22) → Luqueño (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kagame (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Baird (Outs 1-24) → Entringer (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Trevino (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  First pitch 2:10 PM ET. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 963883.
  Powerplays: Marlins — Chappell NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 2.00
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Cole Shaffer Zaimir Schloss (2B) 1–0 —
T 11 Kreigh Mateer Ulises Barba (3B) 2–0 —
T 19 Destyn Thompson Maciek Stokke (3B) 3–0 —
T 19 Destyn Thompson Edson López (2B) 4–0 —
T 20 Kristian Alison Jason Adams (3B) 5–0 —
T 25 Jason Adams Rónald Samudio (3B) 6–0 —
T 25 Jason Adams Dylan Purchase (2B) 7–0 —
B 4 Alex Dibert Cary Nantze (3B) 7–1 0.91
B 6 Treston Baird Carson Suggs (3B) 7–2 0.86
B 21 Treston Baird Keishiro Narazaki (3B) 7–3 2.50
B 22 Treston Baird Cary Nantze (3B) 7–4 2.40
B 22 Treston Baird Montavious Chieh-yu (2B) 7–5 1.80
B 23 Kendall Suárez Clifford Chappell (2B) 7–6 1.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 2.00
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Orioles — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +15° · 192 ft Kristian Alison — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Zaimir Schloss — double · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 403 ft Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Cole Shaffer — single · EV 88 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Arkie Rubin — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 317 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 113 mph · LA +7° · 108 ft Ahmad Heath — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Jason Adams — single · EV 97 mph · LA -17° · 92 ft Junior Kagame — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft Kreigh Mateer — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +26° · 204 ft Destyn Thompson — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 122 ft Zaimir Schloss — double · EV 100 mph · LA +43° · 399 ft Rill Kautz — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 139 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Ramon Blackman — single · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -4° · 79 ft Cary Nantze — single · EV 85 mph · LA -8° · 81 ft Carson Suggs — single · EV 85 mph · LA +7° · 81 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 73 mph · LA +21° · 140 ft Jason Enquist — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft Treston Baird — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +1° · 76 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -13° · 69 ft Israel Trevino — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 110 ft Cary Nantze — double_play · EV 71 mph · LA -9° · 67 ft Wallace Enterline — fly_out · EV 103 mph · LA +28° · 349 ft Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Wallace Enterline — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +51° · 394 ft Jean Altamirano — triple · EV 111 mph · LA +14° · 233 ft Treston Baird — single · EV 84 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 68 mph · LA +22° · 130 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
94% deserve-to-win  ·  13.0 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -6.0 vs expected
contact: 19.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-12.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 114 / +42° Center Out 3.6 → 0 -3.58
Kreigh Mateer 100 / +46° Pull Out 2.6 → 0 -2.59
Arkie Rubin 100 / +26° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Kristian Alison 100 / +15° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Junior Kagame 100 / +15° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Marlins
6% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jean Altamirano 111 / +14° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.54
Wallace Enterline 103 / +28° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Wallace Enterline 100 / +51° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Ramon Blackman 81 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Carson Suggs 85 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
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