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Nationals 4, Guardians 1                                    2026-08-17 · #1398
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Cleveland               1    1    4    1
Washington              4    4    4    0

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Haliburton  p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Céspedes    ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cabrera     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Siereveld   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Anwunah     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Gazzani ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rollins pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Brymer      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Mayotte pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cosper      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Carmona     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Ardón   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Tanner  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Granber ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   1   4   0   0   0   1   4   8   0   1  0.167
  SB: Rollins (16).
  CS: Ardón (12).
  E: Tanner (1).
  HBP: Cabrera (3), Brymer (2).
  GIDP: Tanner (3).
  a-Batted for Anwunah in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Bannatyne in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Brymer in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.
  f-Grounded out for Mayotte in the 7th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Thompkins   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Menz    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Houston pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Folds       p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Burrows     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Jones-W pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Miguelito   lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  d-DeMelo  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Giroud      ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Alvarado    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Crowdus     j  ......    0   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   1   0   .000
Totals                  11   4   4   1   0   0   4   3   2   1   2  0.364
  2B: Crowdus (2).
  a-Ran for Thompkins in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Pastore in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Burrows in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Miguelito in the 5th.

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton (L, 11-8)     14   12  44%    4    4    4    3    2    0   54    -

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Folds (W, 3-1) ......    29   27 100%    4    1    1    4    8    0  108    -

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Siereveld (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Bannatyne (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Anwunah (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cosper (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Brymer (Outs 1-12)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Folds (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Guardians batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 275699.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.33
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 15 Keshav Haliburton Benoit Mayotte (3B) 1–0 —
B 9 Devron San Miguelito Óscar Giroud (2B) 1–1 0.17
B 12 Erwin Crowdus Dante DeMelo (3B) 1–2 0.00
B 12 Erwin Crowdus Sammy Houston (2B) 1–3 0.00
B 12 Erwin Crowdus Rill Devezin (1B) 1–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.33
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Guardians — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Keshav Haliburton — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 128 ft Sekou Cabrera — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +37° · 265 ft Amir Anwunah — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -3° · 57 ft Doug Bannatyne — single · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 91 ft Aleksandar Cosper — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +44° · 376 ft Hal Rollins — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 134 ft Alastair Gazzaniga — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 129 ft Tony Tanner — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Boris Carmona — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +35° · 250 ft Aleksandar Cosper — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +41° · 236 ft Tayavek Céspedes — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Keshav Haliburton — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 276 ft Aleksandar Cosper — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 121 ft Keshav Haliburton — single · EV 91 mph · LA +11° · 122 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Gerry Folds — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Marcos Pastore — error · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 146 ft Óscar Giroud — error · EV 86 mph · LA -6° · 82 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 78 mph · LA -20° · 74 ft Erwin Crowdus — double · EV 98 mph · LA +24° · 287 ft Gerry Folds — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +44° · 295 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 95 mph · LA -3° · 90 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Guardians
74% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -5.2 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-4.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Aleksandar Cosper 97 / +44° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Hal Rollins 88 / +13° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Keshav Haliburton 92 / +27° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Keshav Haliburton 81 / +15° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Alastair Gazzaniga 88 / +12° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Nationals
26% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 4.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Pastore 92 / +13° Pull Reached on Error 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Devron San Miguelito 78 / -20° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Gerry Folds 86 / +44° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Marcos Pastore 95 / -3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Gerry Folds 100 / +6° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
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