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Astros 2, Canaries 1                                        2026-08-17 · #1399
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              1    1    2    0
Houston                 2    2    2    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kerr        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Savides ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Campos      ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Cordero     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Rushing     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Barron      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Arnoux      p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  b-Nachand pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Lacava  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Conway  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   1   2   0   0   0   1   7  11   0   0  0.083
  SB: Campos (4), Hollenbeck (8), Nachand (5).
  CS: Campos (5).
  GIDP: Cordero (5), Lacava (5).
  a-Struck out for Pastore in the 5th.
  b-Ran in the 4th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.
  d-Struck out for Savides in the 8th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hammerbeck  p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Moros       rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Braun       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Morales     1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gómez       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Totals                   5   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   1  0.400
  HR: Hammerbeck (1), off Arnoux.
  HBP: Morales (10).
  GIDP: Thom (4).
  Squeeze: Neely (1 RBI).


CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Arnoux (L, 13-3) ....     6    5  19%    2    2    2    0    0    1   11    -

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hammerbeck (W, 2-5) .    24   21  78%    2    1    1    4    9    0   85    -
Pratt ...............     7    6  22%    0    0    0    3    2    0   23  2-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-5)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Arnoux (Outs 1-5)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-5)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-5)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Rushing (Outs 1-5)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Barron (Outs 1-5)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-5)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-5)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-5)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-5)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hammerbeck (Outs 1-21) → Pratt (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Braun (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | —
CENTER FIELD (CF) | —
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Moros (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 625201.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.22
    27 outs left: 0.11
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 21 Tripp Hollenbeck Roberto Lacava (2B) 1–0 —
B 0 Zack Hammerbeck Zack Hammerbeck (HR) 1–1 0.11
B 4 Van Neely Jeyland Morales (3B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.22
27 outs left 0.11
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Canaries — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 79 mph · LA +21° · 165 ft Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Jesse Woodall — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +31° · 240 ft Roberto Lacava — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Jayden Rushing — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Grant Cordero — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +50° · 228 ft Jesse Woodall — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 78 ft Kadin Arnoux — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 229 ft Jayden Rushing — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 181 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 78 mph · LA +5° · 74 ft Grant Cordero — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Zack Hammerbeck — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +41° · 387 ft Brayan Braun — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 108 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Iapani Thom — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -10° · 63 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
76% deserve-to-win  ·  4.6 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -3.6 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jayden Rushing 92 / +16° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Tripp Hollenbeck 78 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Jayden Rushing 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Jesse Woodall 78 / +9° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Grant Cordero 76 / +14° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Astros
24% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.6 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zack Hammerbeck 99 / +41° Oppo Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.99
Brayan Braun 92 / +9° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mirko Moros 84 / +8° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Iapani Thom 80 / +7° Center Double Play 0.3 → 0 -0.30
Mayer Gómez 66 / -10° Center Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
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