==============================================================================
Athletics 6, Padres 4                                       2026-08-17 · #1400
at Saitch Coliseum
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Oakland                 6      -    6    3    0
San Diego               4      0    4    5    0

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mascherano  2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
DeLong      lf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Korda       c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Molina      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Leat        3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Sawchuk     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Crutchf pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Zago        1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Beach       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gerlach ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Fehr    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Noel    pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Colón   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Wiesner pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Sinclai ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Saunder pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Taygan      j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ghannam     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   6   3   0   0   0   5   6  13   0   1  0.125
  HBP: Beach (1), Taygan (3).
  GIDP: Saunders (2).
  Squeeze: Sinclair.
  a-Ran for Sawchuk in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Beach in the 2nd.
  c-Singled for Taygan in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Wiesner in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Fehr in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 2nd.
  g-Batted in the 4th.
  h-Ran in the 5th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fernández   lf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Susnjar     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.500
Salcido     cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   1   0  0.333
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Lettiere    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Banuelos    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Arozarena   p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  26   4   5   1   0   1   4   4  15   1   1  0.192
  2B: Salcido (4).
  HR: Fernández (7), off Beach.
  SB: Atehortua (12).
  CS: Arozarena (2).
  HBP: Lettiere (3).
  Squeeze: Susnjar (1 RBI).


ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Beach ...............     6    6   25  4.2    1    2    1    0    5    1    -
Kitler (W, 7-4) .....    16   15   59  3.7    1    0    0    2    8    0    -
Appiah ..............     9    6   24  2.7    2    2    2    2    3    0  2-2

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Arozarena (L, 9-3) ..    27   20   92  3.4    3    6    6    5   12    0    -
Pace-Wilson .........     5    6   11  2.2    0    0    0    1    2    0  2-0

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Beach (Outs 1-6) → Kitler (Outs 7-21) → Appiah (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Korda (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Zago (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mascherano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Leat (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | DeLong (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sawchuk (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Molina (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Arozarena (Outs 1-20) → Pace-Wilson (Outs 21-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Andrade (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Susnjar (Outs 1-26)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Athletics batted second.
  Seconds: OAK o26 (6-4), SDP o25 (4-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 896768.
  Walk-Back runs: off Beach 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.60
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Israel Fernández Israel Fernández (HR) 0–1 —
B 0 Kreigh Susnjar Israel Fernández (3B) 0–2 —
B 19 Keshav Atehortua Yimmi Arozarena (3B) 0–3 —
B 21 Ángelo Salcido Reed Lettiere (3B) 0–4 —
T 2 Martin Leat Tobias DeLong (3B) 1–4 0.48
T 8 Zane Wiesner Zane Wiesner (1B) 2–4 0.47
T 12 Tobias DeLong Chet Noel (3B) 3–4 0.40
T 16 Marcos Ghannam Rick Taygan (3B) 4–4 0.27
T 17 Cannon Sinclair Chet Noel (2B) 5–4 0.00
T 19 Javier Colón Javier Colón (3B) 6–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.60
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Athletics — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Tobias DeLong — single · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Mauro Mascherano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Randy Korda — single · EV 77 mph · LA +25° · 184 ft Ahmad Sawchuk — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Hal Fehr — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 168 ft Javier Colón — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -11° · 62 ft Keaton Saunders — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +1° · 73 ft Martin Leat — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +17° · 60 ft Cannon Sinclair — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -18° · 71 ft Alex Zago — line_out · EV 60 mph · LA +14° · 67 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
386' 403' 371' Israel Fernández — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +32° · 447 ft Haxzel Andrade — single · EV 87 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft Ángelo Salcido — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -22° · 86 ft Ludlow MacCracken — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +29° · 262 ft Yimmi Arozarena — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 243 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -17° · 84 ft Kreigh Susnjar — single · EV 87 mph · LA -3° · 83 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -27° · 68 ft Ángelo Salcido — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -13° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Athletics
29% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 3.1 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Randy Korda 77 / +25° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Tobias DeLong 76 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Martin Leat 52 / +17° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Alex Zago 60 / +14° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Ahmad Sawchuk 81 / +8° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.31
Padres
71% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 9.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-2.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yimmi Arozarena 100 / +19° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Ludlow MacCracken 88 / +29° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Haxzel Andrade 87 / -12° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Kreigh Susnjar 87 / -3° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Israel Fernández 111 / +32° Center Home Run 3.4 → 4 +0.62
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →