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Cubs 9, Reds 5                                              2026-08-18 · #1412
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              5    5    2    0
Chicago                 9    9   13    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pittman     lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Levy        3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-David   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Ribera      c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Villalobos  cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Tsouban ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Suarez      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Post        p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.000
  d-Acosta  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   5   2   0   0   0   4   6  14   0   1  0.080
  CS: Murakami (14).
  HBP: Pittman (4), Subhash (7).
  a-Struck out for Núñez in the 9th.
  b-Batted for Levy in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Villalobos in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 7th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Segovia     rf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Lamas   pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Santana     2b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Heinze      c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Shurtleff   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
May         3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Solis       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Casey       1b ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Lamas       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Wimer       p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-McCullo ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Kurth   pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-O'Flahe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  37   9  13   3   0   0   8   1  13   0   0  0.351
  2B: Santana (14), Heinze (13), Casey (7).
  SB: Heinze (21), Lamas (16).
  a-Ran for Segovia in the 6th.
  b-Ran for May in the 7th.
  c-Singled for Verhoeven in the 7th.
  d-Ran for McCullough in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Post (L, 7-6) .......    30   22   92  3.1    9    6    6    1   12    0    -
Dodd ................     7    5   23  3.3    3    3    3    0    1    0  2-2

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wimer (W, 3-19) .....    25   21   99  4.0    1    5    5    5   10    0    -
Espinosa (F, 11) ....     7    6   22  3.1    0    0    0    1    4    0  1-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-22) → Dodd (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Levy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Pittman (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Villalobos (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-21) → Espinosa (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Casey (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 94°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 196723.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O14)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.11    Peak faced 3.75
    27 outs left: 1.11
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Jaume Santana Teófilo Segovia (1B) 0–1 —
B 13 Douglas Casey Tomas Heinze (3B) 0–2 —
B 19 Josh McCullough Víctor Lamas (3B) 0–3 —
B 19 Josh McCullough Maurice Hollowell (3B) 0–4 —
B 22 Víctor Lamas Brian Verhoeven (3B) 0–5 —
B 22 Jaume Santana Davion Kurth (3B) 0–6 —
B 22 Tomas Heinze Víctor Lamas (2B) 0–7 —
B 22 Tomas Heinze Jaume Santana (1B) 0–8 —
B 25 Douglas Casey Davion Kurth (2B) 0–9 —
T 3 Orlando Núñez Felix Ribera (2B) 1–9 1.12
T 6 George Post Zachary Subhash (3B) 2–9 1.14
T 8 Carter Suarez Lyle Pittman (2B) 3–9 1.11
T 19 Lyle Pittman Shelby Warwick (3B) 4–9 2.25
T 20 Felix Ribera Johnny Acosta (3B) 5–9 2.14
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.11
Peak faced 3.75
27 outs left 1.11
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Reds — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Felix Ribera — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Orlando Núñez — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -10° · 63 ft Bret David — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 150 ft George Post — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +39° · 106 ft Orlando Núñez — line_out · EV 61 mph · LA +26° · 117 ft Carter Suarez — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -13° · 73 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +1° · 62 ft Felix Ribera — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +34° · 220 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 9 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 81 mph · LA +17° · 144 ft Jaume Santana — double · EV 91 mph · LA +35° · 312 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Brian Verhoeven — single · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Josh McCullough — single · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 112 ft Víctor Lamas — single · EV 69 mph · LA +23° · 138 ft Davion Kurth — single · EV 86 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Kristian O'Flaherty — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 113 ft Jaume Santana — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +19° · 185 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +6° · 71 ft Douglas Casey — infield_single · EV 60 mph · LA -2° · 57 ft Brad Wimer — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +6° · 63 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Bryce Shurtleff — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 285 ft Erick May — single · EV 75 mph · LA -17° · 71 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -14° · 60 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 87 ft Tomas Heinze — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 214 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +1° · 71 ft Douglas Casey — double · EV 99 mph · LA +41° · 391 ft Brad Wimer — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +22° · 212 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
6% deserve-to-win  ·  1.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 1.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bret David 76 / +20° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Felix Ribera 76 / +9° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Carter Suarez 77 / -13° Pull Out 0.2 → 0 -0.24
Orlando Núñez 61 / +26° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.13
Orlando Núñez 66 / -10° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
Cubs
94% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +3.5 vs expected
contact: 11.5 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+3.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bryce Shurtleff 100 / +22° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Tomas Heinze 92 / +20° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Jaume Santana 91 / +35° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Douglas Casey 60 / -2° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Brian Verhoeven 76 / -6° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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