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Giants 8, Orcas 7                                           2026-08-18 · #1413
at Kolenda Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver               7    7    7    0
San Francisco           8    8    8    1

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  a-Irvin   ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Delía       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Granber ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Noonan  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Godín       2b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Krickstein  ss ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-McInern pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Whitley     rf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Quintero    lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Mendez  ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Teeguarden  1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Edmonso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Blackshear  p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Vallado pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Millar  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  31   7   7   3   0   0   5   2  14   0   0  0.226
  2B: Whitley (7), Quintero (7), Mendez (3).
  SB: Godín (10), Whitley (11), Quintero (10), McInerney (5).
  HBP: Millar (1), Turrentine (3).
  a-Grounded out for Badger in the 8th.
  b-Struck out for Delía in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Peavy in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Krickstein in the 7th.
  e-Batted for Quintero in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Teeguarden in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Blackshear in the 3rd.
  h-Was hit by a pitch for Granberry in the 8th.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hoffken     3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Figuero pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Matos       rf ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rosado  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Kelley      ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Gallowa ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cardozo     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Leining ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Reyes       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Marte       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Connelly    lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
McNeal      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Caniza      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
  e-Arbeloa pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Mantía  ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Braxton pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Estrada ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lacasse     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.500
Capdevila   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sundling    j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   8   8   2   0   0   5   6  11   1   1  0.296
  2B: Matos (29), Kelley (8).
  SB: Rosado (18).
  E: Hoffken (2).
  HBP: Arbeloa (1).
  GIDP: Caniza (2).
  a-Ran for Hoffken in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Matos in the 3rd.
  c-Walked for Kelley in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Cardozo in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Galloway in the 5th.
  f-Singled for Capdevila in the 6th.
  g-Ran in the 7th.
  h-Struck out for Braxton in the 7th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blackshear (L, 4-8) .    13    9  33%    4    4    4    1    3    0   57    -
Abreu ...............    15   11  41%    3    1    1    3    6    0   52    -
Quevedo .............     6    5  19%    1    3    3    2    2    0   22  3-3

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caniza ..............    12    7  26%    5    4    2    0    4    0   34    -
Warburg (W, 9-13) ...    15   13  48%    2    1    1    1    7    0   63  1-1
Ishibashi ...........     8    7  26%    0    2    2    1    3    0   27  2-1

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Blackshear (Outs 1-9) → Abreu (Outs 10-20) → Quevedo (Outs 21-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Teeguarden (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Godín (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Krickstein (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Whitley (Outs 1-25)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Caniza (Outs 1-7) → Warburg (Outs 8-20) → Ishibashi (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Connelly (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted second; Orcas batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 67°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 774341.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.33
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 4 Berkeley Whitley William Krickstein (1B) 1–0 —
T 4 Jonás Quintero Berkeley Whitley (3B) 2–0 —
T 7 Norris Mendez Nahitan Valladolid (2B) 3–0 —
T 7 Norris Mendez Alexis Edmonson (1B) 4–0 —
T 7 Berkeley Whitley Norris Mendez (3B) 5–0 —
T 22 John Millar Omar Godín (3B) 6–0 —
T 22 Herb Noonan Stuart Irvin (3B) 7–0 —
B 0 Maximo Cardozo Antolín Matos (3B) 7–1 0.78
B 0 Jhonny Reyes Alafia Kelley (3B) 7–2 0.67
B 8 Jhonny Reyes Manolo Figueroa (3B) 7–3 0.79
B 8 Jhonny Reyes Ignacio Rosado (3B) 7–4 0.63
B 18 Leo Lacasse Stefan Braxton (3B) 7–5 1.00
B 21 Rubilio Caniza Cas Arbeloa (3B) 7–6 1.00
B 23 Leo Lacasse Jaume La Mantía (3B) 7–7 0.75
B 24 Reuben Leininger Chase Sundling (3B) 7–8 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.33
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Orcas — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Omar Godín — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +39° · 343 ft William Krickstein — single · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Berkeley Whitley — double · EV 119 mph · LA +11° · 204 ft Jonás Quintero — double · EV 105 mph · LA +18° · 264 ft Graydon Blackshear — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +37° · 298 ft Norris Mendez — double · EV 109 mph · LA +16° · 259 ft Nahitan Valladolid — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +21° · 73 ft Alexis Edmonson — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +28° · 269 ft Stuart Irvin — fielders_choice · EV 95 mph · LA +4° · 90 ft Graydon Blackshear — error · EV 86 mph · LA -17° · 82 ft Ivan Teeguarden — single · EV 90 mph · LA +23° · 234 ft Berkeley Whitley — single · EV 77 mph · LA +21° · 158 ft William Krickstein — single · EV 97 mph · LA +36° · 354 ft Omar Godín — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +0° · 75 ft Mateus Delía — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +9° · 85 ft Omar Godín — error · EV 115 mph · LA +1° · 109 ft Berkeley Whitley — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +9° · 81 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Antolín Matos — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 306 ft Alafia Kelley — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 307 ft Maximo Cardozo — single · EV 57 mph · LA +19° · 78 ft Jhonny Reyes — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +27° · 92 ft Parker McNeal — fielders_choice · EV 55 mph · LA +5° · 52 ft Rubilio Caniza — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -24° · 72 ft Reuben Leininger — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 175 ft Hervé Capdevila — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Jaume La Mantía — single · EV 56 mph · LA +22° · 86 ft Leo Lacasse — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Antolín Matos — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 153 ft Maximo Cardozo — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Jhonny Reyes — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 311 ft Alexander Connelly — single · EV 58 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Rubilio Caniza — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +7° · 54 ft Reuben Leininger — single · EV 92 mph · LA -21° · 87 ft Jhonny Reyes — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +29° · 93 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
65% deserve-to-win  ·  9.6 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -2.6 vs expected
contact: 14.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-4.0 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 0 CS (+1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Omar Godín 94 / +39° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Graydon Blackshear 88 / +37° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Alexis Edmonson 91 / +28° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Omar Godín 115 / +1° Center Reached on Error 0.7 → 0 -0.71
William Krickstein 88 / +2° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Giants
35% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Antolín Matos 92 / +32° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Alafia Kelley 92 / +33° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Jhonny Reyes 92 / +33° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Maximo Cardozo 92 / +15° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Reuben Leininger 92 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
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