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Padres 8, Expos 4                                           2026-08-18 · #1414
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Montreal                4    4    5    0
San Diego               8    8    9    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goodson     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-MacKay  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Solórzano   lf ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Creek       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Grizzlies   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Spence      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hiebert     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Fielding    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hutnick     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Drotar      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Currier     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  25   4   5   1   0   1   3   5   9   0   0  0.200
  2B: Solórzano (23).
  HR: Solórzano (17), off Hulbert.
  CS: Solórzano (9).
  HBP: Hutnick (3).
  GIDP: Grizzlies (6), Hutnick (2).
  GITP: Grizzlies (1).
  a-Ran for Goodson in the 7th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Susnjar     lf ......    4   0   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
MacCracken  2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Andrade     cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Deery       ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Alemu       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   1  0.000
Schwinger   rf ......    4   3   3   0   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.750
Lettiere    c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hulbert     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   8   9   3   0   0   8   3  12   0   1  0.300
  2B: Susnjar 2 (6), Atehortua (8).
  SB: Susnjar (4).
  CS: Susnjar (5).
  HBP: Andrade (2).


EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Drotar ..............    15   11  41%    5    3    3    1    5    0   58    -
Brown (L, 3-2) ......    10    8  30%    3    4    4    1    4    0   31  2-2
Cabalceta ...........     9    8  30%    1    1    1    1    4    0   32  1-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hulbert (W, 7-14) ...    31   27 100%    5    4    3    5    9    1  115    -

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Drotar (Outs 1-11) → Brown (Outs 12-19) → Cabalceta (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Spence (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hiebert (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hutnick (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Hulbert (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Deery (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM PT. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 242038.
  Walk-Back runs: off Hulbert 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 15.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Cary Schwinger Trevor Deery (2B) 0–1 —
B 8 Keshav Atehortua Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–2 —
B 11 Cary Schwinger Haxzel Andrade (3B) 0–3 —
B 15 Cary Schwinger Keshav Atehortua (3B) 0–4 —
B 18 Ludlow MacCracken Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–5 —
B 18 Ludlow MacCracken Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–6 —
B 19 Kreigh Susnjar Ludlow MacCracken (1B) 0–7 —
B 23 Huntley Cleveland Keshav Atehortua (2B) 0–8 —
T 16 Samuel Drotar Raiden MacKay (3B) 1–8 2.18
T 16 Rónald Solórzano Samuel Drotar (1B) 2–8 1.91
T 16 Rónald Solórzano Rónald Solórzano (HR) 3–8 1.64
T 16 Fran Creek Rónald Solórzano (3B) 4–8 1.36
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 15.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Expos — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
386' 403' 371' Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 138 ft Maciek Grizzlies — triple_play · EV 56 mph · LA -25° · 54 ft Roscoe Spence — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Titus Hiebert — single · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 110 ft Samuel Drotar — fly_out · EV 61 mph · LA +31° · 130 ft Elliott Currier — single · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 148 ft Rónald Solórzano — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +28° · 128 ft Maciek Grizzlies — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 50 ft Mark Hutnick — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +2° · 54 ft Samuel Drotar — single · EV 83 mph · LA +1° · 79 ft Fran Creek — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Rónald Solórzano — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +38° · 380 ft Titus Hiebert — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 137 ft Samuel Drotar — line_out · EV 57 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 49 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Kreigh Susnjar — double · EV 115 mph · LA +25° · 402 ft Ludlow MacCracken — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +48° · 259 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -16° · 65 ft Trevor Deery — single · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 89 mph · LA +13° · 141 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +0° · 85 ft Roy Hulbert — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +19° · 231 ft Huntley Cleveland — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +25° · 218 ft Keshav Atehortua — single · EV 63 mph · LA +12° · 63 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 106 mph · LA +6° · 101 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 83 mph · LA +15° · 140 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 86 mph · LA -1° · 82 ft Kreigh Susnjar — double · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 339 ft Kreigh Susnjar — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Keshav Atehortua — double · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 324 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 106 mph · LA -5° · 101 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
30% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rónald Solórzano 99 / +38° Center Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.55
Rónald Solórzano 92 / +12° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Samuel Drotar 83 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Titus Hiebert 76 / +18° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Titus Hiebert 86 / +11° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Padres
70% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 11.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Roy Hulbert 98 / +19° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Keshav Atehortua 94 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Kreigh Susnjar 115 / +25° Center Double 2.9 → 2 -0.93
Kreigh Susnjar 92 / +46° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Ludlow MacCracken 86 / -1° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
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