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Cubs 9, Reds 1                                              2026-08-19 · #1422
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Cincinnati              1      0    1    1    0
Chicago                 9      -    9    7    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Agnew       p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Acosta      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Levy        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-David   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Ribera      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bacca       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Murakam pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Morejón     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suarez      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   1   0   0   0   1   3  11   0   1  0.038
  SB: Murakami (19).
  a-Pinch-hit for Levy in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Bacca in the 7th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Santana     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Lamas   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Shurtleff   lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
May         3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Solis   pr ......    2   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Casey       ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lamas       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kurth   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Hollowe pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Campaz      p  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Conn        j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   9   7   3   0   1   8   4   7   0   0  0.219
  2B: Heinze (14), Campaz (3), Conn (1).
  HR: Solis (1), off Xargay.
  SB: Campaz (1), Solis (4), Conn (2).
  a-Ran for Santana in the 5th.
  b-Ran for May in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Lamas in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Seol in the 6th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (L, 9-12) .....    23   17  63%    5    6    6    2    3    0   92    -
Xargay ..............    13   10  37%    2    3    2    2    4    1   46    -

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (W, 10-11) ...    28   27 100%    1    1    1    3   11    0  117    -

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-17) → Xargay (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bacca (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Morejón (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Seol (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  Seconds: CIN o26 (1-9).
  First pitch 5:45 PM CT. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Clear · Dry. seed 524021.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O18)
  Walk-Back runs: off Xargay 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.11    Peak faced 4.50
    27 outs left: 1.11
    18 outs left: 1.67
     9 outs left: 3.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Isaiah Campaz Tomas Heinze (2B) 0–1 —
B 7 Isaiah Campaz Isaiah Campaz (2B) 0–2 —
B 13 Jaume Santana Eddie Solis (3B) 0–3 —
B 16 Wyatt Conn Maurice Hollowell (2B) 0–4 —
B 16 Wyatt Conn Davion Kurth (1B) 0–5 —
B 16 Douglas Casey Wyatt Conn (3B) 0–6 —
B 17 Eddie Solis Eddie Solis (HR) 0–7 —
B 17 Bryce Shurtleff Eddie Solis (3B) 0–8 —
B 26 Bryce Shurtleff Maurice Hollowell (3B) 0–9 —
T 17 Bret David Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 1–9 2.70
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.11
Peak faced 4.50
27 outs left 1.11
18 outs left 1.67
9 outs left 3.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Reds — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Felix Ribera — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Dariel Morejón — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -5° · 60 ft Zachary Subhash — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +42° · 241 ft Emmanuel Murakami — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +56° · 313 ft Colton Agnew — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -2° · 63 ft Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Johnny Acosta — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Johnny Acosta — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 145 ft Felix Ribera — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 172 ft Dariel Morejón — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 249 ft Zachary Subhash — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 101 ft Orlando Núñez — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
311' 428' 340' Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +26° · 252 ft Jaume Santana — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 196 ft Tomas Heinze — double · EV 90 mph · LA +38° · 313 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 88 ft Mikel Lamas — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +20° · 203 ft Isaiah Campaz — double · EV 104 mph · LA +19° · 268 ft Wyatt Conn — double · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 187 ft Eddie Solis — hr · EV 97 mph · LA +47° · 378 ft Víctor Lamas — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +17° · 166 ft Ryan Schellenger — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -4° · 61 ft Isaiah Campaz — single · EV 85 mph · LA +16° · 152 ft Yong-soo Seol — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -1° · 64 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Tomas Heinze — line_out · EV 66 mph · LA +14° · 80 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 93 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -12° · 75 ft Isaiah Campaz — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -14° · 63 ft Yong-soo Seol — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA -8° · 65 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +7° · 82 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +8° · 86 ft Douglas Casey — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +17° · 140 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 189 ft Tomas Heinze — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 235 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
7% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 4.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-3.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zachary Subhash 92 / +9° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Dariel Morejón 89 / +26° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Orlando Núñez 76 / +18° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Emmanuel Murakami 92 / +56° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Felix Ribera 76 / +16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Cubs
93% deserve-to-win  ·  10.1 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 15.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Eddie Solis 97 / +47° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.99
Jaume Santana 95 / +16° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Tomas Heinze 97 / +19° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Tomas Heinze 90 / +38° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Wyatt Conn 98 / +14° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
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