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Beavers 3, Canaries 2  (1 SI)                               2026-08-20 · #1429
at The Oval
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                        1      S    R    H    E
New Jersey              2      0    2    2    1
Portland                2      1    3    7    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kerr        rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Israel      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Pastore ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Navarro     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Campos  pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Rushing     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Conway  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Savides     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Morriso pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nachand     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Barron      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Cordero ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   2   2   0   0   0   1   6   6   0   1  0.074
  CS: Hollenbeck (6), Pastore (5).
  E: Nachand (1).
  GIDP: Navarro (1), Cordero (6).
  a-Batted for Israel in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Rushing in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Savides in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Morrison in the 5th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Turenne     lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Tessema     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Aktaş       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Guerra      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Harper  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Zamora      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Fuenzal ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Streko      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Vahaly  ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Schilli ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Sabella pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Vidal   pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  h-Smith   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  28   3   7   3   0   0   3   5  10   0   0  0.250
  2B: Vahaly (16), Velazquez (6), Vidal (3).
  CS: Redmayne (5), Waston (13).
  GIDP: Aktaş 2 (10), Zamora (3), Streko (10).
  Squeeze: Sabella.
  a-Singled for Holzworth in the 7th.
  b-Singled for Zamora in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Streko in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Henríquez in the 4th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.
  f-Ran for Harper in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 7th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Israel (L, 8-10) ....    32   29 107%    6    3    1    5   11    0  115    -

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henríquez (W, 10-9) .    31   30 111%    2    2    2    6    6    0   96    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-29)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-29)
CATCHER (C)       | Barron (Outs 1-29)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Rushing (Outs 1-29)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-29)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-29)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Savides (Outs 1-29)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-29)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-29)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-29)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Guerra (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Turenne (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hydrick (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 68°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 457187.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Schillig NF (O10)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Renaldo Pastore Hugo Campos (3B) 1–0 —
T 21 Tripp Hollenbeck Ulises Morrison (3B) 2–0 —
B 11 Gabriel Harper Sydney Redmayne (3B) 2–1 0.38
B 21 Ricki Smith Ricki Smith (3B) 2–2 0.50
SB 29 Álvaro Vidal Francisco Vahaly (2B) 2–3 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Canaries — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 129 ft Roberto Lacava — error · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Brandon Barron — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +38° · 105 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +6° · 62 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 102 ft Hugo Campos — fly_out · EV 64 mph · LA +40° · 162 ft Levar Nachand — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 191 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +40° · 175 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 115 ft Hugo Campos — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 97 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Grant Cordero — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 50 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +34° · 167 ft Ramón Navarro — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA -7° · 55 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 114 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Levar De Turenne — single · EV 87 mph · LA +19° · 188 ft Holcombe Hydrick — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +24° · 198 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 95 mph · LA +17° · 204 ft Donis Zamora — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA -12° · 63 ft Mekhi Streko — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -16° · 66 ft Édison Henríquez — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 382 ft Sydney Redmayne — error · EV 80 mph · LA -21° · 76 ft Wilmer Velazquez — double · EV 99 mph · LA +29° · 329 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — single · EV 87 mph · LA +2° · 82 ft Gabriel Harper — single · EV 90 mph · LA -19° · 85 ft Ludlow Schillig — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Ricki Smith — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 185 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 126 ft Ludlow Schillig — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +26° · 286 ft Francisco Vahaly — double · EV 85 mph · LA +40° · 286 ft Álvaro Vidal — double · EV 104 mph · LA +26° · 338 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
12% deserve-to-win  ·  1.9 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 3.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ramón Navarro 98 / +10° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Hugo Campos 84 / +10° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Renaldo Pastore 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Jesse Woodall 76 / +15° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Jerome Kerr 76 / +15° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Beavers
88% deserve-to-win  ·  5.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -2.3 vs expected
contact: 10.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-1.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Édison Henríquez 100 / +36° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Francisco Vahaly 85 / +40° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Dawood Aktaş 95 / +17° Oppo Double Play 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Ludlow Schillig 95 / +26° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Wilmer Velazquez 99 / +29° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
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