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Red Sox 11, Marlins 3                                       2026-08-20 · #1430
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   3    3    6    0
Boston                 11   11    8    1

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Nantze      j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hester      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mangin      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Suggs       3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Chieh-yu    lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Totals                  29   3   6   0   0   0   2   3  12   0   0  0.207
  CS: Blackman (9).
  GIDP: Enterline (7), Chieh-yu (5).


RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Pope    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Venegas     c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Nytes       1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Cordano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Falby       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Castillo    p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Rowley  pr ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
  d-Miranda ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Pezzell ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Echever pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31  11   8   2   0   2  10   4  11   0   0  0.258
  2B: Rowley (10), Miranda (6).
  HR: Merrill (1), off Hester; Rowley (1), off Cook.
  SB: Pope (8), Rowley (2).
  CS: Nytes (4).
  E: Malard (1).
  GIDP: Cameron (3).
  a-Ran for Suazo in the 3rd.
  b-Walked for Nytes in the 8th.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Doubled for Malard in the 4th.
  e-Walked for Miranda in the 6th.
  f-Ran for Pezzella in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hester (L, 3-8) .....    18   11  41%    5    7    6    2    7    1   58    -
Cook ................    15   12  44%    3    3    3    2    4    1   57  1-1
Joly ................     3    4  15%    0    1    1    0    1    0    9  2-1

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (W, 5-5) ...    13   12  44%    1    0    0    1    6    0   53    -
Barnhill ............    13   12  44%    3    3    3    2    4    0   48  2-2
Cortez ..............     4    3  11%    1    0    0    0    2    0   19    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-11) → Cook (Outs 12-23) → Joly (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-12) → Barnhill (Outs 13-24) → Cortez (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 94°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 344283.
  Walk-Back runs: off Hester 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 27.00
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 2.00
     9 outs left: 3.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Henri Merrill Henri Merrill (HR) 0–1 —
B 5 Tony Cameron Henri Merrill (3B) 0–2 —
B 9 Pancho Pfister Raymond Rowley (3B) 0–3 —
B 10 Ivo Malard Ferdi Pope (3B) 0–4 —
B 10 Daylan Miranda Inman Nytes (2B) 0–5 —
B 10 Daylan Miranda Ivo Malard (1B) 0–6 —
B 11 Diego Saravia Daylan Miranda (2B) 0–7 —
B 11 Raymond Rowley Diego Saravia (1B) 0–8 —
B 20 Raymond Rowley Raymond Rowley (HR) 0–9 —
B 22 Denis Echeverría Raymond Rowley (3B) 0–10 —
B 26 Henri Merrill Tony Cameron (3B) 0–11 —
T 12 Anthonie Hester Wallace Enterline (3B) 1–11 2.20
T 12 Jason Enquist Cary Nantze (3B) 2–11 2.00
T 14 Anthonie Hester Jean Altamirano (3B) 3–11 2.08
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 27.00
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 2.00
9 outs left 3.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Jean Altamirano — infield_single · EV 64 mph · LA -13° · 61 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Wallace Enterline — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +18° · 64 ft Cary Nantze — error · EV 54 mph · LA -0° · 52 ft Jason Enquist — single · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Devon Mangin — single · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Carson Suggs — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Cary Nantze — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA -23° · 72 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -21° · 49 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -10° · 60 ft Cary Nantze — single · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Henri Merrill — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +28° · 464 ft Tony Cameron — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +0° · 94 ft Ivo Malard — single · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 119 ft Daylan Miranda — double · EV 106 mph · LA +18° · 270 ft Raymond Rowley — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 277 ft Denis Echeverría — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -2° · 79 ft Manuel Suazo — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 225 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -14° · 76 ft Tony Cameron — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +2° · 100 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 98 mph · LA +4° · 93 ft Inman Nytes — single · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Raymond Rowley — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +34° · 448 ft Henri Merrill — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Kervin Venegas — fielders_choice · EV 91 mph · LA +7° · 86 ft Tony Cameron — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA -10° · 73 ft Diego Saravia — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -11° · 78 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Henri Merrill — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 112 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
1% deserve-to-win  ·  0.9 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cary Nantze 52 / +5° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Jean Altamirano 64 / -13° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Jason Enquist 76 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Devon Mangin 76 / -15° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Ramon Blackman 76 / +14° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Red Sox
99% deserve-to-win  ·  9.6 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 17.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Henri Merrill 118 / +28° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Tony Cameron 105 / +2° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Raymond Rowley 100 / +22° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Raymond Rowley 110 / +34° Oppo Home Run 3.4 → 4 +0.58
Henri Merrill 80 / +13° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
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