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Orioles 12, Cubs 9                                          2026-08-20 · #1431
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 9    9    8    1
Baltimore              12   12    9    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lamas       3b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Schnugg     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Santana     2b ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   3   0   2   0   1  0.333
Heinze      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cody        cf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Segovia     rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Shurtleff   lf ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.667
Solis       ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sarkissian  1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Hollowe pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-May     ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   9   8   0   1   0   7   8   7   0   1  0.276
  3B: Santana (3).
  SB: Solis (5), May (14).
  CS: Lamas (2).
  E: Schellenger (4).
  HBP: Cody (2).
  GITP: Heinze (1).
  a-Ran for Sarkissian in the 6th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  a-López   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Samudio     ss ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.500
Ison        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Alison      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Foust   ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kagame      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Michulka    3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Stokke      rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Kautz       c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Shaffer     p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  35  12   9   6   0   0  12   4  13   0   0  0.257
  2B: Purchase (15), Samudio 2 (12), Alison (10), Kautz (22), Thompson (4).
  SB: Michulka (5).
  CS: Stokke (6).
  a-Ran for Purchase in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Ison in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Alison in the 6th.
  d-Struck out in the 7th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Schnugg .............    19   13  48%    6    5    3    0    3    0   51    -
Bay-Regula (L, 1-3) .    13    6  22%    3    7    7    4    5    0   44  1-0
Sama ................     7    8  30%    0    0    0    0    5    0   30  1-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Shaffer (W, 10-3) ...    13   12  44%    3    2    2    1    2    0   43    -
Nealon ..............    13   10  37%    4    5    5    3    2    0   49    -
Luqueño (F, 36) .....     9    5  19%    0    2    2    4    3    0   34  1-1

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Schnugg (Outs 1-13) → Bay-Regula (Outs 14-19) → Sama (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cody (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-12) → Nealon (Outs 13-22) → Luqueño (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Michulka (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kagame (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Stokke (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM ET. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 931777.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 7.50
    27 outs left: 1.44
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 3.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Rónald Samudio Dylan Purchase (1B) 0–1 —
B 3 Geoff Michulka Rónald Samudio (2B) 0–2 —
B 3 Maciek Stokke Geoff Michulka (2B) 0–3 —
B 10 Kristian Alison Geoff Michulka (1B) 0–4 —
B 13 Dylan Purchase Rónald Samudio (1B) 0–5 —
B 18 Destyn Thompson Ulises Barba (3B) 0–6 —
B 18 Destyn Thompson Sidney Foust (2B) 0–7 —
B 18 Destyn Thompson Jason Adams (1B) 0–8 —
B 19 Rill Kautz Destyn Thompson (2B) 0–9 —
B 19 Rónald Samudio Rill Kautz (3B) 0–10 —
B 19 Rónald Samudio Cole Shaffer (2B) 0–11 —
B 19 Rónald Samudio Edson López (1B) 0–12 —
T 1 Bryce Shurtleff Dudley Cody (3B) 1–12 1.38
T 4 Samuel Sarkissian Teófilo Segovia (3B) 2–12 1.43
T 16 Eddie Solis Erick May (3B) 3–12 2.73
T 16 Eddie Solis Maurice Hollowell (2B) 4–12 2.45
T 22 Jaume Santana Bryce Shurtleff (3B) 5–12 4.80
T 22 Jaume Santana Dudley Cody (2B) 6–12 4.20
T 22 Jaume Santana Teófilo Segovia (1B) 7–12 3.60
T 24 Wyatt Conn Bryce Shurtleff (2B) 8–12 5.00
T 25 Maurice Hollowell Jaume Santana (3B) 9–12 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 7.50
27 outs left 1.44
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 3.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Cubs — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 63 mph · LA -4° · 60 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -13° · 69 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -14° · 76 ft Samuel Sarkissian — ground_out · EV 104 mph · LA -0° · 99 ft Rill Schnugg — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 155 ft Dudley Cody — single · EV 74 mph · LA +17° · 122 ft Mikel Lamas — single · EV 83 mph · LA -2° · 79 ft Wyatt Conn — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -7° · 70 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 80 mph · LA +25° · 197 ft Tomas Heinze — triple_play · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Eddie Solis — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +36° · 287 ft Samuel Sarkissian — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +32° · 254 ft Dudley Cody — ground_out · EV 102 mph · LA +7° · 97 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 83 mph · LA -21° · 79 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 151 ft Jaume Santana — triple · EV 99 mph · LA +23° · 285 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 3 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Dylan Purchase — single · EV 98 mph · LA +25° · 297 ft Rónald Samudio — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 175 ft Dyllan Ison — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +43° · 273 ft Geoff Michulka — single · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Maciek Stokke — single · EV 97 mph · LA +1° · 92 ft Cole Shaffer — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Jason Adams — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA -9° · 81 ft Destyn Thompson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 291 ft Cole Shaffer — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +28° · 467 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA -6° · 113 ft Geoff Michulka — error · EV 99 mph · LA +9° · 119 ft Junior Kagame — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 266 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -6° · 83 ft Rónald Samudio — error · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Dylan Purchase — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 239 ft Dylan Purchase — double · EV 110 mph · LA +22° · 343 ft Rill Kautz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 164 ft Rónald Samudio — double · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 337 ft Geoff Michulka — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 182 ft Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -12° · 92 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
32% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 7.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jaume Santana 99 / +23° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.78
Teófilo Segovia 63 / -4° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Rill Schnugg 88 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mikel Lamas 83 / -2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Eddie Solis 83 / -21° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Orioles
68% deserve-to-win  ·  10.7 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 19.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-4.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 119 / +28° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Dylan Purchase 119 / +12° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Geoff Michulka 99 / +9° Pull Reached on Error 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Rónald Samudio 94 / +36° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Rónald Samudio 100 / +13° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
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