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Rockies 18, Padres 4                                        2026-08-20 · #1433
at Kuvvatov Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Diego               3      1    4    8    1
Colorado               18      -   18   19    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Staten      ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Schwinger   rf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Salaun      p  ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Lettiere    c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Salcido     3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Manzano     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Alemu   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  30   4   8   0   0   1   4   4  13   1   0  0.267
  HR: Salaun (2), off Ribas.
  E: MacCracken (8).
  HBP: Alemu (5).
  GIDP: Lettiere (6), Fernández (13).
  a-Was hit by a pitch in the 6th.

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martinho    ss ......    5   3   3   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.600
Holzworth   p  ......    4   2   3   0   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.750
Ruidíaz     rf ......    5   3   3   0   0   1   5   0   1   0   0  0.600
Cubillán    2b ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.600
Ibarra      3b ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Mondragón   c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kaiuway     1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   3   1   2   0   1  0.333
Poling      lf ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.400
Otamendi    cf ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.400
  a-Goss    ph ......    2   2   1   0   1   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Oh          j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  40  18  19   5   1   1  18   5   6   0   1  0.475
  2B: Martinho (56), Cubillán (4), Kaiuway (13), Poling (16), Otamendi (21).
  3B: Goss (2).
  HR: Ruidíaz (6), off Pohlman.
  Squeeze: Kaiuway (1 RBI).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Salaun ..............    22   11  41%   11   10    1    3    3    0   61    -
Pohlman (L, 1-5) ....    14    9  33%    6    8    7    1    0    1   38  1-1
Manning .............     8    7  26%    1    0    0    1    3    0   32  1-0

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Holzworth (W, 12-1) .    22   16  59%    5    1    1    3    9    0   86    -
Ribas (F, 23) .......    13   11  41%    3    3    3    1    4    1   46  2-0

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Salaun (Outs 1-11) → Pohlman (Outs 12-20) → Manning (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Holzworth (Outs 1-16) → Ribas (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mondragón (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaiuway (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cubillán (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ibarra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Poling (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Rockies (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  Seconds: SDP o23 (3-18).
  First pitch 5:45 PM MT. Weather: 78°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Dry. seed 688129.
  Walk-Back runs: off Pohlman 1, off Ribas 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.11    Peak faced 9.60
    27 outs left: 2.11
    18 outs left: 3.17
     9 outs left: 6.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Corey Holzworth Markeylin Martinho (2B) 0–1 —
B 10 Dixon Ibarra Dixon Ibarra (3B) 0–2 —
B 11 Marco Ruidíaz Wesly Otamendi (2B) 0–3 —
B 11 Tae-jun Oh Dixon Ibarra (2B) 0–4 —
B 11 Markeylin Martinho Marco Ruidíaz (3B) 0–5 —
B 11 Markeylin Martinho Tae-jun Oh (2B) 0–6 —
B 11 Wesly Otamendi Corey Holzworth (3B) 0–7 —
B 11 Wesly Otamendi Markeylin Martinho (1B) 0–8 —
B 11 Justin Kaiuway Wesly Otamendi (3B) 0–9 —
B 11 Justin Kaiuway Reed Poling (1B) 0–10 —
B 12 Marco Ruidíaz Justin Kaiuway (3B) 0–11 —
B 12 Marco Ruidíaz Ahkhari Goss (2B) 0–12 —
B 12 Marco Ruidíaz Pervis Cubillán (1B) 0–13 —
B 12 Marco Ruidíaz Marco Ruidíaz (HR) 0–14 —
B 12 Corey Holzworth Marco Ruidíaz (3B) 0–15 —
B 13 Corey Holzworth Markeylin Martinho (1B) 0–16 —
B 17 Ahkhari Goss Corey Holzworth (2B) 0–17 —
B 17 Justin Kaiuway Ahkhari Goss (3B) 0–18 —
T 17 Barry Salaun Barry Salaun (HR) 1–18 5.40
T 20 Cary Schwinger Barry Salaun (3B) 2–18 7.29
T 20 Ángelo Salcido Zane Staten (2B) 3–18 6.86
seconds_second 3 Ludlow MacCracken Ángelo Salcido (3B) 4–18 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.11
Peak faced 9.60
27 outs left 2.11
18 outs left 3.17
9 outs left 6.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 409' · RF 308' · 12' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Padres — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 8 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
341' 409' 308' Barry Salaun — single · EV 52 mph · LA +18° · 64 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 115 ft Kreigh Susnjar — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 126 ft Zane Staten — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 195 ft Israel Fernández — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 153 ft Ángelo Salcido — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Reed Lettiere — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -18° · 54 ft Barry Salaun — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Zane Staten — error · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Ángelo Salcido — single · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 152 ft Ángelo Salcido — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -24° · 55 ft Reed Lettiere — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 118 ft Ángelo Salcido — single · EV 84 mph · LA +0° · 79 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft
Rockies — Batted Balls
31 BIP· 11 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
341' 409' 308' Markeylin Martinho — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 244 ft Corey Holzworth — single · EV 99 mph · LA +10° · 128 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 112 mph · LA -3° · 106 ft Pervis Cubillán — single · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 147 ft Aníbal Mondragón — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -13° · 57 ft Dixon Ibarra — error · EV 104 mph · LA +5° · 99 ft Tae-jun Oh — single · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Ahkhari Goss — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +11° · 220 ft Wesly Otamendi — single · EV 96 mph · LA +31° · 323 ft Aníbal Mondragón — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Pervis Cubillán — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 80 mph · LA -7° · 76 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 110 mph · LA +20° · 310 ft Justin Kaiuway — double · EV 104 mph · LA +15° · 224 ft Dixon Ibarra — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 160 ft Corey Holzworth — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 97 ft Ahkhari Goss — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +27° · 227 ft Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 98 mph · LA +43° · 384 ft Reed Poling — single · EV 95 mph · LA +21° · 240 ft Marco Ruidíaz — hr · EV 107 mph · LA +36° · 430 ft Markeylin Martinho — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 211 ft Corey Holzworth — single · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Dixon Ibarra — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -18° · 76 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 93 ft Marco Ruidíaz — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 252 ft Pervis Cubillán — line_out · EV 75 mph · LA +0° · 71 ft Reed Poling — double · EV 101 mph · LA +23° · 295 ft Wesly Otamendi — fly_out · EV 104 mph · LA +12° · 181 ft Corey Holzworth — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +27° · 221 ft Markeylin Martinho — line_out · EV 108 mph · LA +25° · 354 ft Pervis Cubillán — double · EV 101 mph · LA +11° · 154 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
10% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.9 vs expected
contact: 8.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+2.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Barry Salaun 92 / +42° Oppo Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.82
Zane Staten 92 / +18° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Kreigh Susnjar 92 / +11° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Reed Lettiere 92 / +15° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Ángelo Salcido 76 / -21° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Rockies
90% deserve-to-win  ·  17.8 expected runs
actual 18 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 30.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (-2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Markeylin Martinho 108 / +25° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Ahkhari Goss 119 / +11° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.48
Markeylin Martinho 100 / +16° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Wesly Otamendi 104 / +12° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Marco Ruidíaz 107 / +36° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.12
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