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Brewers 21, Stars 5                                         2026-08-20 · #1435
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Nashville               5    5    7    0
Milwaukee              21   21   14    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cooper      lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Karouani    1b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Sappington  c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Fusano      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Spence      rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Coupe       3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Boattin     cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gayton      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Falcao      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
  a-Burani  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   7   2   0   0   4   5   8   1   0  0.241
  2B: Cooper (21), Karouani (24).
  CS: Falcao (2).
  GIDP: Spence (9).
  Squeeze: Fusano (1 RBI).
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Irving      lf ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.500
Yani        c  ......    5   4   2   0   0   2   4   0   3   0   0  0.400
Edwards     3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      ss ......    5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kass        cf ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.200
Flores      1b ......    4   3   3   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.750
Trejo       2b ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     rf ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Cortizo     p  ......    4   3   3   1   0   1   7   0   2   1   0  0.750
  a-Mesidor ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Nava        j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  39  21  14   3   0   4  20   5  17   1   0  0.359
  2B: Kass (6), Flores (8), Cortizo (3).
  HR: Yani 2 (7), off Langenfeld, Kingsbury; Sakurai (4), off Kingsbury; Cortizo (6), off Falcao.
  HBP: Flores (3).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Falcao ..............     8    5  19%    3    4    4    1    4    1   28    -
Langenfeld ..........    12    6  22%    3    7    7    3    4    1   42  1-1
Scotti ..............    13    9  33%    3    2    1    1    5    0   56  1-1
Kingsbury (L, 0-2) ..     5    2   7%    3    6    5    0    2    2   17  2-2
Spence ..............     7    5  19%    2    2    1    0    3    0   29  1-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cortizo (W, 13-4) ...    14   13  48%    2    1    1    2    4    0   60    -
Hamdy ...............    13    9  33%    3    4    4    1    4    0   53    -
Kossmann (F, 50) ....     6    5  19%    1    0    0    2    0    0   24  1-0

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Falcao (Outs 1-5) → Langenfeld (Outs 6-11) → Scotti (Outs 12-20) → Kingsbury (Outs 21-22) → Spence (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cortizo (Outs 1-13) → Hamdy (Outs 14-22) → Kossmann (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Yani (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kass (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sakurai (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Stars batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 653839.
  Walk-Back runs: off Langenfeld 1, off Scotti 1, off Kingsbury 1, off Spence 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.44    Peak faced 51.00
    27 outs left: 2.44
    18 outs left: 3.50
     9 outs left: 7.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Oscar Cortizo Clifford Irving (3B) 0–1 —
B 5 Oscar Cortizo Rodolfo Flores (2B) 0–2 —
B 5 Oscar Cortizo Francis Trejo (3B) 0–3 —
B 5 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (HR) 0–4 —
B 5 Percy Nava Oscar Cortizo (3B) 0–5 —
B 10 Rodolfo Flores Percy Nava (2B) 0–6 —
B 10 Oscar Cortizo Rodolfo Flores (3B) 0–7 —
B 10 Oscar Cortizo Francis Trejo (2B) 0–8 —
B 10 Oscar Cortizo Takuto Sakurai (1B) 0–9 —
B 11 Graydon Yani Oscar Cortizo (2B) 0–10 —
B 11 Graydon Yani Graydon Yani (HR) 0–11 —
B 11 Stan Mesidor Graydon Yani (3B) 0–12 —
B 18 Stan Mesidor Steven Kaplan (3B) 0–13 —
B 21 Takuto Sakurai Steven Kaplan (3B) 0–14 —
B 21 Takuto Sakurai Rodolfo Flores (2B) 0–15 —
B 21 Takuto Sakurai Takuto Sakurai (HR) 0–16 —
B 22 Clifford Irving Takuto Sakurai (3B) 0–17 —
B 22 Graydon Yani Clifford Irving (1B) 0–18 —
B 22 Graydon Yani Graydon Yani (HR) 0–19 —
B 24 Thierry Kass Graydon Yani (3B) 0–20 —
B 24 Rodolfo Flores Thierry Kass (2B) 0–21 —
T 6 Hugo Falcao Sean Spence (3B) 1–21 3.00
T 20 Tracy Fusano Khosilot El Karouani (3B) 2–21 8.57
T 21 Bruno Cooper Sean Spence (3B) 3–21 9.50
T 21 Bruno Cooper Tracy Fusano (2B) 4–21 9.00
T 21 Bruno Cooper Khosilot El Karouani (3B) 5–21 8.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.44
Peak faced 51.00
27 outs left 2.44
18 outs left 3.50
9 outs left 7.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Stars — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Bruno Cooper — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +14° · 98 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Tracy Fusano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Sean Spence — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Hady Coupe — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -18° · 62 ft Pepe Boattin — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 156 ft Hugo Falcao — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +18° · 70 ft Hugo Falcao — single · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Sean Spence — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA +10° · 62 ft Tracy Fusano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Khosilot El Karouani — double · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 272 ft Edwin Gayton — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +16° · 66 ft Pepe Boattin — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Bruno Cooper — double · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 249 ft Khosilot El Karouani — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Bruno Cooper — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +21° · 159 ft Tracy Fusano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -28° · 72 ft Hady Coupe — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 152 ft Pepe Boattin — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +7° · 80 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 4 HR
344' 415' 304' Clifford Irving — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 193 ft Oscar Cortizo — single · EV 87 mph · LA +22° · 205 ft Percy Nava — error · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 205 ft Rodolfo Flores — double · EV 106 mph · LA +27° · 356 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 93 mph · LA +9° · 111 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Oscar Cortizo — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 397 ft Daniel Edwards — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA +2° · 102 ft Oscar Cortizo — double · EV 98 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Takuto Sakurai — infield_single · EV 59 mph · LA -1° · 56 ft Graydon Yani — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +42° · 384 ft Steven Kaplan — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Takuto Sakurai — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Steven Kaplan — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 228 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 87 mph · LA -14° · 82 ft Takuto Sakurai — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -13° · 89 ft Graydon Yani — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +32° · 445 ft Thierry Kass — double · EV 112 mph · LA +15° · 250 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
15% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 8.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Khosilot El Karouani 92 / +27° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Bruno Cooper 89 / +26° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Pepe Boattin 92 / +42° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Hugo Falcao 78 / +7° Oppo Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Bruno Cooper 78 / +21° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Brewers
85% deserve-to-win  ·  12.7 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +8.3 vs expected
contact: 24.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (+4.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Graydon Yani 98 / +42° Center Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.99
Oscar Cortizo 100 / +42° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Percy Nava 100 / +16° Oppo Reached on Error 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Oscar Cortizo 98 / +11° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Takuto Sakurai 59 / -1° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
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