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Nationals 2, Guardians 1                                    2026-08-21 · #1436
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington              2    2    2    0
Cleveland               1    1    3    0

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Thompkins   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alvarado    3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Giroud      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Corrales    cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Foster  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Burrows     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bothwell    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Miguelito   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-DeMelo  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  18   2   2   0   0   0   0   2   8   0   0  0.111

  a-Walked for Corrales in the 6th.
  b-Ran in the 6th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Carmona     lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  a-Bronaug pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Céspedes    ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Brymer      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bannatyne   3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ardón       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tanner      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Rollins pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Siereveld   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Velez       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Haliburton  p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Gazzani ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   1   3   2   0   0   0   0  10   0   0  0.107
  2B: Carmona (6), Céspedes (3).
  SB: Rollins (18).
  CS: Bronaugh (3).
  GIDP: Céspedes (1), Bannatyne (3).
  a-Ran for Carmona in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Tanner in the 4th.
  c-Grounded out in the 7th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bothwell (W, 2-6) ...    26   27 100%    3    1    1    0   10    0   92    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton (L, 11-9)     20   17  63%    2    2    2    2    8    0   74    -

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bothwell (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Velez (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Siereveld (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ardón (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Brymer (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tanner (Outs 1-17)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM ET. Weather: 79°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 294011.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.60
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Marcos Siereveld Tayavek Céspedes (3B) 0–1 —
T 17 Rill Devezin Dante DeMelo (3B) 1–1 0.30
T 17 Rill Devezin Júnior Alvarado (3B) 2–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.60
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Nationals — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Robby Bothwell — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 294 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +7° · 49 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Rill Devezin — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft Damion Thompkins — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 213 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Robby Bothwell — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Boris Carmona — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 194 ft Tayavek Céspedes — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 151 ft Anthony Brymer — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Júnior Ardón — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Eddie Velez — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Alastair Gazzaniga — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +51° · 225 ft Eddie Velez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Tony Tanner — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft Anthony Brymer — single · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 290 ft Tayavek Céspedes — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -14° · 57 ft Boris Carmona — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +1° · 91 ft Doug Bannatyne — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Eddie Velez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Keshav Haliburton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Boris Carmona — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 324 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
58% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Devezin 92 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Marcos Pastore 76 / +2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Robby Bothwell 92 / +30° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Robby Bothwell 92 / +8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Rill Devezin 76 / +23° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Guardians
42% deserve-to-win  ·  1.5 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 6.0 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tayavek Céspedes 92 / +13° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Boris Carmona 92 / +37° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Anthony Brymer 92 / +15° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Boris Carmona 96 / +1° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Eddie Velez 76 / +14° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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