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Rockies 8, Padres 2                                         2026-08-21 · #1441
at Kuvvatov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               2    2    3    0
Colorado                8    8   11    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Atehortua   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Banuelos    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Andrade     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Schwinger   rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Manzano     cf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Salcido     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Lettier ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Arozarena   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   1  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  28   2   3   0   0   0   2   2  12   0   1  0.107
  SB: Manzano (3), Cleveland (3).
  HBP: Schwinger (4).
  GIDP: Lettiere (7).
  a-Grounded out for Salcido in the 9th.

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martinho    ss ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Herr    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Henry       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Otamend pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.500
Alderman    cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Kaiuway     2b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.667
Ibarra      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Robles      rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Ruidíaz     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Poling      1b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Goss        lf ......    4   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Oh          j  ......    0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   .000
Totals                  31   8  11   0   1   0   7   5   8   2   1  0.355
  3B: Goss (3).
  CS: Kaiuway (8).
  a-Ran for Martinho in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Henry in the 5th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Arozarena (L, 9-4) ..    28   21   86  3.1    9    7    3    5    4    0    -
Pace-Wilson .........     7    6   22  3.1    1    1    1    0    4    0  2-1

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Henry (W, 11-1) .....    30   27   98  3.3    2    2    2    2   12    0    -

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Arozarena (Outs 1-21) → Pace-Wilson (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Henry (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Poling (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kaiuway (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ibarra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Robles (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Rockies (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  First pitch 7:05 PM MT. Weather: 90°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 773177.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 7.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Ahkhari Goss Reed Poling (1B) 0–1 —
B 11 Tae-jun Oh Ahkhari Goss (3B) 0–2 —
B 12 Allen Alderman Oren Robles (3B) 0–3 —
B 12 Markeylin Martinho Tae-jun Oh (3B) 0–4 —
B 12 Markeylin Martinho Allen Alderman (2B) 0–5 —
B 15 Dixon Ibarra Wesly Otamendi (3B) 0–6 —
B 20 Wesly Otamendi Justin Kaiuway (3B) 0–7 —
B 26 Ahkhari Goss Wesly Otamendi (3B) 0–8 —
T 12 Jefry Manzano Jefry Manzano (3B) 1–8 1.60
T 16 Israel Fernández Huntley Cleveland (3B) 2–8 1.91
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 7.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 409' · RF 308' · 12' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Padres — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 409' 308' Kreigh Susnjar — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +29° · 206 ft Jefry Manzano — single · EV 89 mph · LA +6° · 85 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft Stefan Banuelos — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +4° · 62 ft Reed Lettiere — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +18° · 64 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 49 ft Cary Schwinger — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -6° · 57 ft Jefry Manzano — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA -16° · 67 ft Keshav Atehortua — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Israel Fernández — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +31° · 224 ft Haxzel Andrade — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +43° · 238 ft Jefry Manzano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 205 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -10° · 54 ft Stefan Banuelos — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +44° · 108 ft
Rockies — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 9 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 409' 308' Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 86 mph · LA +2° · 81 ft David Henry — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -2° · 57 ft Dixon Ibarra — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +10° · 70 ft Oren Robles — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Marco Ruidíaz — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +12° · 94 ft Reed Poling — single · EV 59 mph · LA +24° · 106 ft Ahkhari Goss — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +10° · 146 ft Tae-jun Oh — single · EV 77 mph · LA -17° · 73 ft Wesly Otamendi — infield_single · EV 63 mph · LA +17° · 88 ft Wesly Otamendi — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 114 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +3° · 77 ft Reed Poling — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +30° · 148 ft Allen Alderman — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft David Henry — error · EV 58 mph · LA +4° · 55 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 78 mph · LA +15° · 119 ft Oren Robles — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +36° · 226 ft Justin Kaiuway — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Wesly Otamendi — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +59° · 223 ft Reed Poling — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 195 ft Dixon Ibarra — error · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Oren Robles — single · EV 93 mph · LA +14° · 169 ft Ahkhari Goss — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 205 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
16% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 2.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jefry Manzano 71 / -16° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Jefry Manzano 89 / +6° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Keshav Atehortua 76 / +15° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Reed Lettiere 52 / +18° Oppo Double Play 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Keshav Atehortua 82 / +8° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.31
Rockies
84% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+3.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ahkhari Goss 101 / +10° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Reed Poling 59 / +24° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Wesly Otamendi 92 / +10° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Allen Alderman 76 / -1° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Tae-jun Oh 77 / -17° Center Stay 0.2 → 1 +0.76
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