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Canaries 8, Beavers 7                                       2026-08-21 · #1440
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              8    8   13    1
Portland                7    7    5    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     c  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Campos      ss ......    2   2   2   2   0   0   3   1   1   1   0  1.000
Junior      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   2  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.250
Lacava      3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Hollenbeck  lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Savides     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Conway  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nachand     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rushing ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Barron      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cordero     lf ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Morriso pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Gutierr pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  29   8  13   6   0   0   8   5   9   2   2  0.448
  2B: Pastore (9), Campos 2 (13), Navarro (7), Hollenbeck (14), Gutierrez (2).
  CS: Lacava (1), Hollenbeck (7), Morrison (5).
  E: Morrison (3).
  HBP: Cordero (8).
  a-Walked for Savides in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Nachand in the 9th.
  c-Singled for Barron in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Kerr in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Conway in the 5th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Clement     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     ss ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Tessema     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Schilli ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Waters      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Sabella pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Harper  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Zamora      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Fuenzal ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Streko      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Waston  pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Moulton     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Vahaly  ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  g-Turenne ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Vidal   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Palepal pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  j-Rabess  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   7   5   0   0   0   6   4  15   0   1  0.179
  SB: Waston (7), Fuenzalida (4), Palepale 2 (6).
  a-Grounded out for Tessema in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Guerra in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Holzworth in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Zamora in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Streko in the 2nd.
  f-Batted for Moulton in the 2nd.
  g-Struck out for Vidal in the 6th.
  h-Ran in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Harper in the 6th.
  j-Struck out for Redmayne in the 7th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Junior (W, 4-0) .....    23   17   81  3.5    5    6    6    4    7    0    -
Thom (F, 13) ........    10   10   44  4.4    0    1    1    0    9    0  1-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Moulton (L, 3-10) ...    31   24   99  3.2   11    8    8    5    9    0    -
Agunloye ............     5    3   22  4.4    2    0    0    0    1    0  1-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Junior (Outs 1-17) → Thom (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Savides (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Barron (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-24) → Agunloye (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Waters (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM PT. Weather: 65°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 784961.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Schillig NF (O14)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 1.36
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 14 Hugo Campos Edwin Gutierrez (3B) 1–0 —
T 15 Renaldo Pastore Roberto Lacava (3B) 2–0 —
T 18 Roberto Lacava Renaldo Pastore (3B) 3–0 —
T 18 Roberto Lacava Hugo Campos (2B) 4–0 —
T 21 Hugo Campos Edwin Gutierrez (3B) 5–0 —
T 21 Hugo Campos Grant Cordero (2B) 6–0 —
T 21 Ramón Navarro Renaldo Pastore (3B) 7–0 —
T 21 Ramón Navarro Hugo Campos (2B) 8–0 —
B 4 Mekhi Streko Holcombe Hydrick (3B) 8–1 1.04
B 4 Mekhi Streko Yadier Guerra (2B) 8–2 0.91
B 7 Sydney Redmayne Enrique Sabella (2B) 8–3 0.90
B 12 Holcombe Hydrick Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 8–4 1.00
B 17 Gabriel Harper Holcombe Hydrick (3B) 8–5 1.20
B 17 Gabriel Harper Francisco Vahaly (2B) 8–6 0.90
B 19 Kyle Rabess Deandre Palepale (3B) 8–7 0.75
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 1.36
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Canaries — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Jhornan Junior — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +5° · 78 ft Levar Nachand — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -14° · 64 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 73 mph · LA +21° · 142 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 95 mph · LA +17° · 201 ft Edwin Gutierrez — double · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 173 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 107 ft Jayden Rushing — infield_single · EV 65 mph · LA +8° · 62 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 93 mph · LA +3° · 88 ft Ramón Navarro — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 294 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 89 mph · LA +47° · 319 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 200 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 104 mph · LA +27° · 355 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 83 mph · LA -1° · 79 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Levar Nachand — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft Ramón Navarro — double · EV 89 mph · LA +11° · 116 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +45° · 243 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — double · EV 95 mph · LA +45° · 359 ft Ramón Navarro — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 215 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Bonsa Tessema — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +11° · 104 ft Yadier Guerra — error · EV 62 mph · LA +7° · 59 ft Mekhi Streko — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Derek Moulton — single · EV 75 mph · LA +15° · 109 ft Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +26° · 200 ft Sydney Redmayne — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Gabriel Harper — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +29° · 224 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 78 mph · LA -4° · 74 ft Francisco Vahaly — single · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 124 ft Agustín Waston — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +29° · 244 ft Gabriel Harper — single · EV 62 mph · LA -3° · 59 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
77% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 12.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (+4.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Edwin Gutierrez 93 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Jayden Rushing 65 / +8° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Hugo Campos 89 / +47° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Tripp Hollenbeck 95 / +45° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Ramón Navarro 92 / +30° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Beavers
23% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.2 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 0 CS (+1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Gabriel Harper 62 / -3° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Holcombe Hydrick 78 / -4° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Mekhi Streko 76 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Bonsa Tessema 83 / +11° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Derek Moulton 75 / +15° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
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