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Astros 20, Braves 3                                         2026-08-21 · #1446
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Atlanta                 3      0    3    6    0
Houston                20      0   20   14    0

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Nilo        cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Spencer     lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alvelo      2b ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Vargas      rf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Bray        1b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Nightingale ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Morrow      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kaloger ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   3   6   4   0   0   2   4  10   0   0  0.222
  2B: Spencer (20), Alvelo (25), Vargas (16), Nightingale (9).
  SB: Spencer (10), Bray (9).
  CS: Alvelo (17).
  HBP: Spencer (3).
  GIDP: Nilo (7).
  a-Batted in the 5th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Patridge    rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Prince  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kingsbury   lf ......    5   2   3   1   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Braun       cf ......    5   2   3   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Plum        3b ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   2   0   0  0.250
Thom        c  ......    5   2   3   1   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Gómez       1b ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Neely       ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Basham      p  ......    1   3   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Moros   ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Tassew  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  36  20  14   5   0   6  19   6  10   0   0  0.389
  2B: O'Connor (12), Kingsbury (11), Braun 2 (17), Thom (18).
  HR: Kingsbury (3), off Morejón; Plum (2), off Morrow; Thom (7), off Homans; Gómez (2), off Homans; Basham (1), off Buford; Moros (4), off Morejón.
  HBP: Gómez (4).
  a-Ran for Patridge in the 8th.
  b-Batted in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Moros in the 8th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Morrow ..............     6    2   7%    4    4    4    1    1    1   18    -
Homans ..............     7    3  11%    3    6    3    1    2    2   31  1-1
Buford ..............    13   12  44%    2    3    2    2    4    1   58  1-0
Morejón (L, 1-1) ....     9    5  19%    4    5    5    0    1    2   32    -
Ramon-Edwards .......     7    5  19%    1    2    2    2    2    0   30  1-0

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Basham ..............    13    9  33%    4    2    2    2    1    0   51    -
Fenty (W, 2-1) ......    13   14  52%    1    0    0    1    6    0   55  2-0
Solaun (F, 4) .......     6    4  15%    1    1    1    1    3    0   23  1-1

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-2) → Homans (Outs 3-5) → Buford (Outs 6-17) → Morejón (Outs 18-22) → Ramon-Edwards (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bray (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vargas (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Basham (Outs 1-9) → Fenty (Outs 10-23) → Solaun (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Plum (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Braun (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted first; Braves batted second.
  Seconds: ATL o26 (3-20), HOU o26 (20-0).
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 93°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 381691.
  Walk-Back runs: off Homans 3, off Buford 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.33    Peak faced 10.80
    27 outs left: 2.33
    18 outs left: 3.17
     9 outs left: 6.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Brayan Braun Butch Patridge (2B) 0–1 —
B 1 Remington Plum Marcos Kingsbury (3B) 0–2 —
B 1 Remington Plum Brayan Braun (1B) 0–3 —
B 1 Remington Plum Remington Plum (HR) 0–4 —
B 1 Iapani Thom Remington Plum (3B) 0–5 —
B 1 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 0–6 —
B 1 Mayer Gómez Iapani Thom (3B) 0–7 —
B 1 Mayer Gómez Mayer Gómez (HR) 0–8 —
B 4 Marcos Kingsbury Mayer Gómez (3B) 0–9 —
B 4 Marcos Kingsbury Jerome Basham (1B) 0–10 —
B 9 Jerome Basham Remington Plum (2B) 0–11 —
B 9 Jerome Basham Jerome Basham (HR) 0–12 —
B 11 Iapani Thom Jerome Basham (3B) 0–13 —
B 17 Mirko Moros Dante O'Connor (2B) 0–14 —
B 17 Mirko Moros Mirko Moros (HR) 0–15 —
B 21 Brayan Braun Mayer Gómez (3B) 0–16 —
B 21 Marcos Kingsbury Brayan Braun (2B) 0–17 —
B 21 Marcos Kingsbury Marcos Kingsbury (HR) 0–18 —
B 25 Iapani Thom Jeff Prince (3B) 0–19 —
B 25 Iapani Thom Shimeket Tassew (2B) 0–20 —
T 7 Mariano Vargas Hugo Bray (3B) 1–20 3.00
T 7 Oscar Nilo Donny Nightingale (3B) 2–20 2.85
T 22 Donny Nightingale Zack Spencer (3B) 3–20 10.80
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.33
Peak faced 10.80
27 outs left 2.33
18 outs left 3.17
9 outs left 6.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Braves — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Mariano Vargas — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 125 ft Mirko Alvelo — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft Hugo Bray — fielders_choice · EV 101 mph · LA -1° · 96 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Donny Nightingale — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 295 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Mariano Vargas — double · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 225 ft Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Oscar Nilo — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Zack Spencer — double · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 330 ft Donny Nightingale — double · EV 86 mph · LA +22° · 205 ft Hugo Bray — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 198 ft Hugo Bray — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 191 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 6 HR
374' 430' 367' Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 248 ft Brayan Braun — single · EV 85 mph · LA -3° · 81 ft Remington Plum — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +39° · 407 ft Iapani Thom — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Mayer Gómez — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +34° · 386 ft Van Neely — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +14° · 182 ft Jerome Basham — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Mirko Moros — line_out · EV 73 mph · LA +11° · 79 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 223 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Remington Plum — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 113 mph · LA +22° · 362 ft Mirko Moros — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +30° · 465 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 100 mph · LA -14° · 95 ft Marcos Kingsbury — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA +7° · 113 ft Butch Patridge — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 121 ft Van Neely — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -4° · 81 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Brayan Braun — double · EV 96 mph · LA +35° · 345 ft Marcos Kingsbury — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 449 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +1° · 75 ft Iapani Thom — double · EV 113 mph · LA +22° · 351 ft Brayan Braun — double · EV 116 mph · LA +10° · 186 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
13% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -3.7 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donny Nightingale 86 / +22° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Mirko Alvelo 92 / +20° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Mariano Vargas 92 / +21° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Hugo Bray 100 / +14° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Zack Spencer 92 / +39° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Astros
87% deserve-to-win  ·  17.4 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 31.0 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 37.0 (+6.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Remington Plum 102 / +39° Pull Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Mayer Gómez 102 / +34° Oppo Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Marcos Kingsbury 95 / +19° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Van Neely 99 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Mirko Moros 116 / +30° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
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