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Guardians 6, Nationals 4                                    2026-08-22 · #1447
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington              4    4    7    0
Cleveland               6    6    1    0

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Giroud      ss ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Jones-W pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Houston pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Folds       p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Menz    pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Miguelito   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Thompki ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Corrales    3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Alvarad ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cheng       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Baloy       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  f-Foster  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Devezin pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ebun        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  30   4   7   3   0   0   3   2  13   0   0  0.233
  2B: Giroud (5), Menz (5), Fábrega (6).
  GIDP: Pastore (4), Baloy (6).
  a-Ran for Giroud in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Pastore in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Burrows in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Miguelito in the 6th.
  e-Pinch-hit for Corrales in the 7th.
  f-Grounded out for Jones-Wesley in the 6th.
  g-Ran in the 7th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Granberry   2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Gazzani ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Tanner      rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rollins     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Ardón       1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hutson      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  b-Bronaug pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Velez       3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Siereve pr ......    2   3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Chadwick    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   2  0.000
Totals                  22   6   1   0   0   0   6   5   7   0   3  0.045
  HBP: Tanner 2 (3), Rollins (3), Hutson (6), Gazzaniga (1).
  GIDP: Granberry (6), Tanner (4), Rollins (3).
  a-Batted for Cabrera in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Hutson in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Velez in the 3rd.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Folds (L, 3-2) ......    31   27  115  3.7    0    6    6    5    7    0    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Chadwick (W, 1-3) ...    19   15   58  3.1    5    2    2    0    7    0    -
Robles (F, 24) ......    14   12   54  3.9    2    2    2    2    7    0  2-2

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Folds (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cheng (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Chadwick (Outs 1-15) → Robles (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ardón (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Velez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Rollins (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hutson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tanner (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  First pitch 7:05 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 228268.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O24)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 2.25
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Sidney Chadwick Tony Tanner (3B) 0–1 —
B 12 Alastair Gazzaniga Marcos Siereveld (3B) 0–2 —
B 18 Júnior Ardón Doug Bannatyne (2B) 0–3 —
B 20 Sidney Chadwick Marcos Siereveld (3B) 0–4 —
B 21 Kemari Granberry Hal Rollins (3B) 0–5 —
B 23 Doug Bannatyne Marcos Siereveld (3B) 0–6 —
T 12 Marcos Pastore Renaldo Corrales (3B) 1–6 1.20
T 13 Gerry Folds Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 2–6 1.07
T 15 Raz Menz Sammy Houston (3B) 3–6 1.00
T 22 Isaac Fábrega Raz Menz (3B) 4–6 1.80
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 2.25
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Nationals — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Gerry Folds — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Basil Burrows — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Devron San Miguelito — error · EV 58 mph · LA -4° · 55 ft Marcos Pastore — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA +5° · 51 ft Kendry Baloy — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Raz Menz — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 160 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Renaldo Corrales — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 89 ft Óscar Giroud — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 298 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Basil Burrows — single · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Gerry Folds — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 120 ft Isaac Fábrega — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 309 ft Gerry Folds — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA +5° · 55 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 0 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Kemari Granberry — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +20° · 255 ft Marcos Siereveld — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA -17° · 55 ft Tony Tanner — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 49 ft Júnior Ardón — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Kemari Granberry — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Alastair Gazzaniga — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +9° · 96 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Marcos Siereveld — line_out · EV 56 mph · LA +17° · 69 ft Kemari Granberry — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Júnior Ardón — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Hal Rollins — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Kemari Granberry — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Júnior Ardón — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
15% deserve-to-win  ·  2.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 6.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+4.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Óscar Giroud 92 / +31° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Raz Menz 92 / +14° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Isaac Fábrega 92 / +33° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Gerry Folds 92 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Basil Burrows 76 / -3° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Guardians
85% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 0.0 (-4.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kemari Granberry 99 / +20° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Alastair Gazzaniga 87 / +9° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Kemari Granberry 76 / +10° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Kemari Granberry 76 / +16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Marcos Siereveld 56 / +17° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
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