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Reds 4, Orcas 3                                             2026-08-22 · #1453
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              4    4    2    1
Vancouver               3    3    5    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Subhash     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Villalobos  lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Tsoubanos   rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cox         ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morejón     cf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ribera      c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Acosta  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Murakami    3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Aguilar     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   5   4   2   0   0   0   4   5   1   0   1  0.400
  E: Villalobos (1).
  HBP: Murakami (4), Warwick (2).
  GIDP: Subhash (7).
  a-Ran for Ribera in the 2nd.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blackshear  p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Badger      3b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  a-McInern pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Delía       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Godín       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Whitley     rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Irvin       2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.333
Granberry   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Quinter pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Edmonson    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Krickst ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Noonan  ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Teeguar ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   5   1   0   0   3   3   6   0   1  0.179
  2B: Badger (6).
  CS: McInerney (6).
  GIDP: Delía (2), Krickstein (3), Teeguarden (4).
  a-Ran for Badger in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Granberry in the 6th.
  c-Batted in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Quintero in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Cuéllar in the 4th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (W, 17-7) ...    31   27 100%    5    3    2    3    6    0   87    -

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blackshear ..........     1    0   0%    1    0    0    0    0    0    4    -
Pohlman (L, 0-1) ....    11    6  22%    1    4    4    5    1    0   49  1-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cox (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Villalobos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Morejón (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-6)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Pohlman (Outs 1-6)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-6)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Granberry (Outs 1-6)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Irvin (Outs 1-6)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-6)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Edmonson (Outs 1-6)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-6)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Godín (Outs 1-6)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Whitley (Outs 1-6)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 2:10 PM PT. Weather: 69°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 504051.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.50
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 15 Yerry Cuéllar Berkeley Whitley (3B) 0–1 —
B 18 Louis Badger Jonás Quintero (3B) 0–2 —
B 26 Coen Turrentine Herb Noonan (2B) 0–3 —
T 3 Felix Ribera Devron Villalobos (3B) 1–3 0.38
T 3 Emmanuel Murakami Agustin Cox (3B) 2–3 0.25
T 3 Rony Aguilar Dariel Morejón (3B) 3–3 0.12
T 6 Johnny Acosta Johnny Acosta (3B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.50
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Reds — Batted Balls
4 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 81 mph · LA +17° · 146 ft Zachary Subhash — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 73 ft Orlando Núñez — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +34° · 272 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 93 mph · LA +23° · 246 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Graydon Blackshear — single · EV 72 mph · LA -13° · 69 ft Louis Badger — single · EV 101 mph · LA +10° · 139 ft Mateus Delía — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft Stuart Irvin — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -21° · 74 ft Prakash Granberry — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft William Krickstein — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Yerry Cuéllar — single · EV 52 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Herb Noonan — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -10° · 88 ft Coen Turrentine — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -13° · 76 ft Mateus Delía — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +29° · 199 ft Norris Mendez — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +16° · 63 ft Omar Godín — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 196 ft Berkeley Whitley — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA +0° · 80 ft William Krickstein — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -28° · 54 ft Stuart Irvin — single · EV 92 mph · LA -4° · 87 ft Ivan Teeguarden — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA +22° · 114 ft Herb Noonan — error · EV 54 mph · LA +21° · 78 ft Louis Badger — double · EV 97 mph · LA +24° · 278 ft Mateus Delía — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Omar Godín — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +45° · 231 ft Stuart Irvin — error · EV 57 mph · LA +15° · 66 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
72% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 2.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Orlando Núñez 86 / +34° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Ed Tsoubanos 81 / +17° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Zachary Subhash 76 / +2° Center Double Play 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Felix Ribera 93 / +23° Center Single 0.9 → 1 +0.11
Orcas
28% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 7.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Louis Badger 97 / +24° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Graydon Blackshear 72 / -13° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Yerry Cuéllar 52 / +10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Stuart Irvin 92 / -4° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Ivan Teeguarden 64 / +22° Center Double Play 0.4 → 0 -0.42
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