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Diamondbacks 8, Dodgers 7                                   2026-08-23 · #1458
at Wold Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Arizona                 8    8    8    0
Los Angeles             7    7    5    1

DIAMONDBACKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
McNutt      lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Pierre-Loui ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gronows pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Smashey     p  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Alderma ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Maupin      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Ullstro ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Start       3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Bektas      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Foyth       cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Linton      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Aogo        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Kruger  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Randall pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Halstea ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Gibson  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Caniza  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Galekovic   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Manasse     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  18   8   8   2   0   0   7   6   4   1   0  0.444
  2B: McNutt (21), Smashey (7).
  GIDP: Bektas (2).
  a-Ran for Pierre-Louis in the 2nd.
  b-Walked for Smashey in the 2nd.
  c-Walked for Maupin in the 2nd.
  d-Singled in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Alderman in the 2nd.
  f-Walked in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Halstead in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Kruger in the 5th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eggleston   3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Martin      lf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Mokiao-Atim 2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gerardy     rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Ochoa       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Daniels     c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Boyajyan    1b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Garcés      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Gilbert pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Tiernan     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gleason ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Richard pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Lepchen pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Querrey pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Abbott      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kromah      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   7   5   0   0   0   5   8  10   0   0  0.179
  E: Eggleston (8).
  HBP: Abbott (4).
  a-Ran for Garcés in the 2nd.
  b-Batted in the 2nd.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Gilbert in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

DIAMONDBACKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Smashey .............    14   10  37%    3    3    3    3    4    0   47    -
Daugherty (W, 2-1) ..    16   13  48%    1    3    3    2    6    0   66  1-0
Cheek ...............     8    4  15%    1    1    1    3    1    0   26    -

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tiernan .............     5    1   4%    4    1    1    0    1    0   22    -
Byrd (L, 7-1) .......     8    6  22%    1    3    3    2    4    0   41  3-2
Heinrich ............     9    6  22%    2    3    3    3    0    0   37  2-1
Sanchez .............     3    2   7%    1    1    1    1    0    0   12  2-0

DIAMONDBACKS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Smashey (Outs 1-10) → Daugherty (Outs 11-23) → Cheek (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maupin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bektas (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Aogo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Start (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Pierre-Louis (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | McNutt (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foyth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Linton (Outs 1-27)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-15)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tiernan (Outs 1-1) → Byrd (Outs 2-7) → Heinrich (Outs 8-13) → Sanchez (Outs 14-15)
CATCHER (C)       | Daniels (Outs 1-15)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Boyajyan (Outs 1-15)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-15)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-15)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-15)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-15)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Garcés (Outs 1-15)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-15)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted first; Diamondbacks batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM PT. Weather: 79°F · Wind out · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 359484.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 0.92
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Jed Boyajyan Tanner Gerardy (2B) 0–1 —
B 7 Elliott Gleason Jed Boyajyan (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Elliott Gleason Dean Gilbert (3B) 0–3 —
B 15 Lenny Eggleston Suntarine Richards (3B) 0–4 —
B 20 Shawn Daniels Thomas Martin (3B) 0–5 —
B 21 Tanner Gerardy Daylan Querrey (3B) 0–6 —
B 24 Wallace Monroe Thomas Martin (2B) 0–7 —
T 1 Toby Start Damian Smashey (3B) 1–7 0.81
T 1 Phillip Bektas Miguel McNutt (3B) 2–7 0.69
T 5 Irving Ullstrom Toby Start (3B) 3–7 0.68
T 6 Toby Start Anderson Randall (2B) 4–7 0.57
T 12 Dennis Manasse Joao Foyth (2B) 5–7 0.60
T 13 Graydon Kruger Ron Gronowski (3B) 6–7 0.43
T 13 Graydon Kruger Will Galekovic (3B) 7–7 0.21
T 15 Ron Gronowski Yomar Caniza (3B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 0.92
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Diamondbacks — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Damian Smashey — double · EV 84 mph · LA +15° · 137 ft Miguel McNutt — double · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 287 ft Toby Start — single · EV 77 mph · LA +25° · 178 ft Ryan Pierre-Louis — single · EV 92 mph · LA -13° · 87 ft Phillip Bektas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Will Galekovic — single · EV 79 mph · LA +4° · 75 ft Dennis Manasse — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +1° · 79 ft Graydon Kruger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Ron Gronowski — single · EV 64 mph · LA +6° · 61 ft Toby Start — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Phillip Bektas — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Toby Start — error · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Lenny Eggleston — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +26° · 280 ft Thomas Martin — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Tanner Gerardy — single · EV 83 mph · LA -23° · 79 ft Jed Boyajyan — single · EV 83 mph · LA +15° · 136 ft Elliott Gleason — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +10° · 92 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +7° · 85 ft Daylan Querrey — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +36° · 217 ft Jed Boyajyan — single · EV 68 mph · LA +17° · 106 ft Wallace Monroe — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -23° · 68 ft Shawn Daniels — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -5° · 65 ft Tanner Gerardy — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -10° · 66 ft Lenny Eggleston — single · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 114 ft Shawn Daniels — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -2° · 89 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Diamondbacks
42% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 4.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+5.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Damian Smashey 84 / +15° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.42
Miguel McNutt 92 / +29° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Ron Gronowski 64 / +6° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Toby Start 77 / +25° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Will Galekovic 79 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Dodgers
58% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shawn Daniels 68 / -5° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Lenny Eggleston 94 / +26° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Tanner Gerardy 83 / -23° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Elliott Gleason 83 / +10° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Jed Boyajyan 68 / +17° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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