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Nationals 11, Phillies 10                                   2026-08-24 · #1468
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia           10   10   10    0
Washington             11   11    5    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Mattke      2b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Logar       1b ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Alvarado    c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Santos      3b ......    4   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   3   0   0  0.250
Moor        lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Andrade pr ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tabaracci   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Martín      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Awoniyi ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gullett     p  ......    4   1   1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
  c-Vásquez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Israilo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ferguson-Re j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  32  10  10   4   2   0   9   4  10   0   0  0.312
  2B: Grizzlies (36), Mattke (13), Alvarado (20), Andrade (3).
  3B: Santos (3), Gullett (1).
  CS: Mattke (7), Logar (1), Awoniyi (10).
  HBP: Logar (3).
  a-Ran for Moor in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Martín in the 4th.
  c-Ran in the 4th.
  d-Grounded out in the 8th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Miguelito   lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Devezin     rf ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Cheng       3b ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Baloy       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Houston     c  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Foster      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Heffner     ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Abadía      p  ......    1   1   1   0   1   0   3   1   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Jones-W pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  12  11   5   1   1   0   9  10   2   0   1  0.417
  2B: Houston (1).
  3B: Abadía (1).
  SB: Devezin (19).
  a-Ran for Abadía in the 4th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Gullett (L, 3-2) ....     8    4   33  4.1    2    3    3    4    1    0    -
Poruri ..............     4    2   13  3.2    1    2    2    1    1    0  2-2
Condron .............     5    2   16  3.2    2    3    3    2    0    0  2-2
Bisgrove ............     5    2   18  3.6    0    2    2    3    1    0  2-2
Lussi ...............     1    2    5  5.0    0    1    1    0    0    0  3-1

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Abadía (W, 9-19) ....    25   16  100  4.0    9    8    8    4    5    0    -
Al-Uqdah ............    12   11   53  4.4    1    2    2    0    5    0  1-1

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Gullett (Outs 1-4) → Poruri (Outs 5-6) → Condron (Outs 7-8) → Bisgrove (Outs 9-10) → Lussi (Outs 11-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Alvarado (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mattke (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Santos (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moor (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tabaracci (Outs 1-12)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-16) → Al-Uqdah (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Houston (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foster (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Heffner (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 129704.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 1.27
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Marco Logar Zach Grizzlies (2B) 1–0 —
T 1 Derlis Alvarado Marco Logar (1B) 2–0 —
T 7 Anthony Mattke Zach Grizzlies (1B) 3–0 —
T 10 Bryan Andrade Derlis Alvarado (3B) 4–0 —
T 11 Allen Ferguson-Reynolds Bryan Andrade (3B) 5–0 —
T 11 Allen Ferguson-Reynolds Alberto Vásquez (2B) 6–0 —
T 16 Sandy Santos Zach Grizzlies (2B) 7–0 —
T 16 Sandy Santos Marco Logar (1B) 8–0 —
T 16 Bryan Andrade Sandy Santos (3B) 9–0 —
T 20 Bright Awoniyi Andres Gullett (3B) 10–0 —
B 1 Sammy Houston Rill Devezin (3B) 10–1 1.15
B 3 Isaac Fábrega Cheng-wei Cheng (3B) 10–2 1.12
B 3 Frickson Abadía Sammy Houston (3B) 10–3 1.00
B 4 Frickson Abadía Rayce Foster (3B) 10–4 0.91
B 4 Frickson Abadía Isaac Fábrega (2B) 10–5 0.78
B 6 Sammy Houston Frickson Abadía (3B) 10–6 0.71
B 8 Devron San Miguelito Daniel Heffner (3B) 10–7 0.63
B 8 Devron San Miguelito Cheng-wei Cheng (3B) 10–8 0.47
B 9 Daniel Heffner Rill Devezin (3B) 10–9 0.33
B 10 Sammy Houston Devron San Miguelito (3B) 10–10 0.18
B 10 Kendry Baloy Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 10–11 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 1.27
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 319 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Marco Logar — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 132 ft Derlis Alvarado — double · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 394 ft Nicolas Martín — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +7° · 82 ft Bryan Andrade — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 143 ft Vitas Anthony — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +56° · 480 ft Allen Ferguson-Reynolds — single · EV 119 mph · LA +10° · 192 ft Zach Grizzlies — fielders_choice · EV 119 mph · LA +5° · 113 ft Anthony Mattke — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 326 ft Derlis Alvarado — single · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 228 ft Bryan Andrade — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Bright Awoniyi — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -10° · 88 ft Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 395 ft Anthony Mattke — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 133 ft Sandy Santos — triple · EV 109 mph · LA +13° · 211 ft Andres Gullett — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +24° · 347 ft Derlis Alvarado — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 121 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Devron San Miguelito — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Sammy Houston — single · EV 80 mph · LA -7° · 76 ft Frickson Abadía — triple · EV 102 mph · LA +24° · 308 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -17° · 58 ft Sammy Houston — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 390 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 60 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +3° · 90 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
56% deserve-to-win  ·  9.8 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 20.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sandy Santos 109 / +13° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.53
Anthony Mattke 100 / +9° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Vitas Anthony 114 / +56° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.15
Anthony Mattke 96 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Andres Gullett 108 / +24° Pull Triple 2.0 → 3 +1.00
Nationals
44% deserve-to-win  ·  8.7 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.3 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+2.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Frickson Abadía 102 / +24° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Sammy Houston 80 / -7° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Rill Devezin 81 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Devron San Miguelito 60 / +9° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Kendry Baloy 95 / +3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
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