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Stars 2, Padres 1                                           2026-08-23 · #1467
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Nashville               2    2    6    0
San Diego               1    1    6    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cooper      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Sapping ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      3b ......    3   0   2   1   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Boattin     ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Ruiz    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Burani      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Caballero   c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Karouan ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Santamaría  1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kekahuna    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
Santiago    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Giannou     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morariu     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26   2   6   1   1   0   2   3   8   0   1  0.231
  2B: Mendez (8).
  3B: Mendez (1).
  CS: Ruiz (5).
  a-Grounded out for Spence in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Boattin in the 8th.
  c-Struck out for Caballero in the 7th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Andrade     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Staten  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Banuelos    3b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  b-Lettier pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Schwinger   rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Manzano pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Wilcox      p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
Susnjar     c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Salcido     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Corona      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Atehort ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   6   0   0   0   1   4  10   0   0  0.231
  SB: Manzano (4).
  GIDP: Andrade 2 (9), Atehortua (11), Corona (1).
  a-Singled for MacCracken in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Banuelos in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Schwinger in the 6th.
  d-Grounded out for Fernández in the 7th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Kekahuna (W, 7-2) ...    30   27  114  3.8    6    1    1    4   10    0    -

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wilcox (L, 15-10) ...    30   27  114  3.8    6    2    2    3    9    0    -

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kekahuna (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Caballero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Santamaría (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Corona (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted second; Stars batted first.
  First pitch 7:15 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 823186.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 2.00
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Facundo Mendez Sean Spence (2B) 1–0 —
T 1 Facundo Mendez Edwin Gayton (1B) 2–0 —
B 7 Stefan Banuelos Bertram Wilcox (3B) 2–1 0.30
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 2.00
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Stars — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Bruno Cooper — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Facundo Mendez — triple · EV 99 mph · LA +13° · 177 ft Justo Burani — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -20° · 58 ft Dylan Kekahuna — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Erwin Santiago — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -14° · 95 ft Nat Morariu — single · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -6° · 65 ft Dylan Kekahuna — single · EV 87 mph · LA -21° · 83 ft Pepe Boattin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Sean Spence — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -16° · 75 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Nestor Santamaría — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 102 ft Justo Burani — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 74 ft Pepe Boattin — single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 138 ft Facundo Mendez — double · EV 90 mph · LA +20° · 209 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -6° · 76 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Kreigh Susnjar — line_out · EV 61 mph · LA +19° · 92 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Huntley Cleveland — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 67 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Zane Staten — single · EV 52 mph · LA -5° · 49 ft Stefan Banuelos — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA +6° · 65 ft Cary Schwinger — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft Haxzel Andrade — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA -15° · 58 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Lautaro Corona — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Haxzel Andrade — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Ángelo Salcido — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 188 ft Kreigh Susnjar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
56% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 7.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Facundo Mendez 99 / +13° Pull Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.91
Bruno Cooper 100 / +21° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Facundo Mendez 90 / +20° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Dylan Kekahuna 87 / -21° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Nat Morariu 88 / +6° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Padres
44% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.5 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stefan Banuelos 68 / +6° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Ángelo Salcido 92 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Zane Staten 52 / -5° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Bertram Wilcox 52 / +19° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Kreigh Susnjar 76 / +13° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
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