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Brewers 8, Guardians 6  (3 SI)                              2026-08-23 · #1466
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Milwaukee               6      2    8    8    2
Cleveland               6      0    6    5    1

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Irving      lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.333
Williams    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Ishida  pr ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Edwards     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Mesidor pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0  0.000
Yani        c  ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Struthe ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kass        cf ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.200
Saravia     ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   1   0   0  0.500
Trejo       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  d-Flores  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kollen      p  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
Nava        j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Eggleston   j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  39   8   8   3   0   0   5  10  19   1   0  0.205
  2B: Kass (7), Kollen (5), Nava (11).
  CS: Saravia (1).
  E: Williams 2 (3).
  HBP: Irving (3).
  GIDP: Yani (8).
  a-Ran for Williams in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Edwards in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Kaplan in the 9th.
  d-Batted for Trejo in the 9th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cabrera     c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Velez   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Granberry   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Ardón   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Siereveld   1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Céspedes    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Anwunah ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Enquist     cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Hutson      rf ......    5   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.200
Carmona     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Bronaug pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ricard      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Rollins pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Tanner  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  39   6   5   1   0   1   6   2  16   0   0  0.128
  2B: Cabrera (7).
  HR: Hutson (7), off Kollen.
  SB: Rollins (19), Bronaugh (8).
  E: Anwunah (8).
  GIDP: Ricard (2).
  a-Ran for Cabrera in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Granberry in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Céspedes in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Carmona in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Ricard in the 4th.
  f-Batted in the 7th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kollen (W, 16-3) ....    41   36 133%    5    6    6    2   16    1  150    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ricard (L, 11-15) ...    40   30 111%    7    7    3    8   14    0  143    -
Yano ................     9    6  22%    1    1    1    2    5    0   30  1-1

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-36)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kollen (Outs 1-36)
CATCHER (C)       | Yani (Outs 1-36)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-36)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-36)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Williams (Outs 1-36)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-36)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-36)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kass (Outs 1-36)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edwards (Outs 1-36)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-36)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ricard (Outs 1-30) → Yano (Outs 31-36)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-36)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Siereveld (Outs 1-36)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-36)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-36)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-36)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-36)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-36)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hutson (Outs 1-36)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  Super-innings: 3.
  First pitch 1:10 PM ET. Weather: 75°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 935999.
  Powerplays: Guardians — Ardón NF (O5)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 2.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Steven Kaplan Clifford Irving (3B) 1–0 —
T 12 Jesse Williams Steven Kaplan (2B) 2–0 —
T 13 Percy Nava Stan Mesidor (3B) 3–0 —
T 15 Donni Eggleston Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 4–0 —
T 18 Thierry Kass Percy Nava (3B) 5–0 —
T 21 Robby Kollen Graydon Yani (3B) 6–0 —
B 9 Boris Carmona Hal Rollins (2B) 6–1 1.33
B 10 Oren Hutson Clint Bronaugh (1B) 6–2 1.24
B 10 Oren Hutson Oren Hutson (HR) 6–3 1.06
B 18 Doug Bannatyne Júnior Ardón (3B) 6–4 1.67
B 20 Sekou Cabrera Oren Hutson (1B) 6–5 1.71
B 26 Tony Tanner Clint Bronaugh (3B) 6–6 9.00
ST 34 Robby Kollen Sergio Saravia (2B) 7–6 —
ST 34 Clifford Irving Robby Kollen (2B) 8–6 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 2.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Brewers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Jesse Williams — infield_single · EV 59 mph · LA -14° · 56 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 248 ft Graydon Yani — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Thierry Kass — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -10° · 61 ft Sergio Saravia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Percy Nava — double · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 251 ft Clifford Irving — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +48° · 192 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 109 ft Daniel Edwards — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA +8° · 58 ft Jesse Williams — error · EV 54 mph · LA -29° · 52 ft Steven Kaplan — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -12° · 64 ft Stan Mesidor — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 91 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -26° · 82 ft Robby Kollen — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +19° · 260 ft Toshihiro Ishida — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -15° · 62 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 90 mph · LA +4° · 86 ft Thierry Kass — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 171 ft Robby Kollen — double · EV 101 mph · LA +23° · 293 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
315' 410' 349' Tayavek Céspedes — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 116 ft Marcos Siereveld — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 264 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Sam Enquist — single · EV 82 mph · LA -24° · 78 ft Boris Carmona — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +32° · 202 ft Lawson Ricard — double_play · EV 75 mph · LA -2° · 71 ft Amir Anwunah — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -9° · 77 ft Tony Tanner — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -6° · 77 ft Hal Rollins — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -12° · 62 ft Clint Bronaugh — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -8° · 67 ft Lawson Ricard — error · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 234 ft Boris Carmona — single · EV 98 mph · LA -14° · 93 ft Sekou Cabrera — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +54° · 442 ft Oren Hutson — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Sam Enquist — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -7° · 83 ft Tony Tanner — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Marcos Siereveld — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Doug Bannatyne — single · EV 88 mph · LA -24° · 84 ft Oren Hutson — error · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Sekou Cabrera — double · EV 109 mph · LA +17° · 272 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
57% deserve-to-win  ·  7.0 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.0 vs expected
contact: 9.0 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Robby Kollen 103 / +19° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Thierry Kass 92 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Percy Nava 92 / +24° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Jesse Williams 59 / -14° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Steven Kaplan 92 / +4° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Guardians
43% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Oren Hutson 115 / +49° Pull Home Run 1.0 → 4 +2.98
Sekou Cabrera 108 / +54° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.58
Marcos Siereveld 92 / +26° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Lawson Ricard 88 / +25° Pull Reached on Error 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Sam Enquist 82 / -24° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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