==============================================================================
Nationals 4, Phillies 3                                     2026-08-23 · #1465
at Tannery Yards
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            3    3    7    0
Washington              4    4    9    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Andrade     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Mattke      cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Logar       1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Alvarado    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Santos      ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Moor        lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.333
Tabaracci   c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Craft   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Martín      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Awoniyi ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Chavez      p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Grizzli pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Vásquez pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Borges  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Ka'apan pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Anthony     j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ferguson-Re j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   3   7   1   0   0   3   3  11   1   0  0.241
  2B: Chavez (1).
  CS: Grizzlies (12), Vásquez (2).
  GIDP: Tabaracci (8).
  a-Batted for Tabaracci in the 4th.
  b-Singled for Martín in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Chavez in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 4th.
  e-Walked in the 7th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Jones-W pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Giroud      ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Corrales    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Thompki ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Houston     nf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Rico        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Miguelito   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Foster  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Devezin     rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Cheng       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Menz    pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Fábrega     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  e-Cruz    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Baloy   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Bartlet pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Shi     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   4   9   3   0   0   4   3   5   0   0  0.333
  2B: Pastore (17), Menz (6), Burrows (7).
  SB: Jones-Wesley (10).
  HBP: Cheng (4), Thompkins (11), Foster (4).
  a-Ran for Pastore in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Corrales in the 7th.
  c-Was hit by a pitch for Miguelito in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Cheng in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 7th.
  f-Walked for Cruz in the 9th.
  g-Ran for Baloy in the 9th.
  h-Ran for Foster in the 9th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chavez ..............    16   15  56%    4    0    0    2    1    0   43    -
Maples (L, 3-8) .....    12   10  37%    3    2    2    1    3    0   34  1-0
Bowen ...............     4    2   7%    1    2    2    0    1    0   14  2-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rico (W, 6-14) ......    31   27 100%    7    3    3    3   11    0  109    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Chavez (Outs 1-15) → Maples (Outs 16-25) → Bowen (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Tabaracci (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Martín (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moor (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Andrade (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Rico (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  First pitch 1:10 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 662894.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O14)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.33
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 20 Vitas Anthony Anthony Mattke (3B) 1–0 —
T 22 Jahiem Moor Jerome Ka'apana (3B) 2–0 —
T 26 Anthony Mattke Vitas Anthony (3B) 3–0 —
B 25 Raz Menz Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 3–1 4.50
B 25 Raz Menz Cooper Bartlett (1B) 3–2 3.00
B 25 Rill Devezin Zhiqiang Shi (3B) 3–3 1.50
B 26 Sammy Houston Damion Thompkins (2B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Sandy Santos — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA +6° · 63 ft Alfredo Chavez — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -23° · 80 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 82 mph · LA +25° · 209 ft Vitas Anthony — single · EV 95 mph · LA +21° · 241 ft Allen Ferguson-Reynolds — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 194 ft Alberto Vásquez — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 128 ft Zach Grizzlies — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +16° · 115 ft Alfredo Chavez — double · EV 101 mph · LA +22° · 287 ft Jahiem Moor — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Derlis Alvarado — fly_out · EV 57 mph · LA +29° · 109 ft Marco Logar — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 256 ft Anthony Mattke — single · EV 99 mph · LA +6° · 94 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +5° · 78 ft Jahiem Moor — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Jahiem Moor — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -6° · 79 ft Anthony Mattke — single · EV 87 mph · LA +22° · 210 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Basil Burrows — double · EV 99 mph · LA +36° · 371 ft Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +25° · 265 ft Óscar Giroud — single · EV 94 mph · LA -1° · 90 ft Rill Devezin — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +12° · 109 ft Renaldo Corrales — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Isaac Fábrega — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +10° · 63 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — single · EV 87 mph · LA -18° · 83 ft Aleem Rico — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +15° · 184 ft Basil Burrows — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +25° · 186 ft Marcos Pastore — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 145 ft Rill Devezin — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Renaldo Corrales — single · EV 80 mph · LA +0° · 76 ft Isaac Fábrega — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +31° · 370 ft Raz Menz — double · EV 84 mph · LA +45° · 282 ft Sammy Houston — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 76 ft Isaac Fábrega — single · EV 77 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Rill Devezin — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 182 ft Aleem Rico — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 133 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
11% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 8.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Allen Ferguson-Reynolds 92 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Jahiem Moor 76 / +6° Center Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Marco Logar 92 / +25° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Bright Awoniyi 82 / +25° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Alfredo Chavez 101 / +22° Oppo Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Nationals
89% deserve-to-win  ·  9.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -5.9 vs expected
contact: 12.6 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-1.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Isaac Fábrega 102 / +31° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Raz Menz 84 / +45° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Marcos Pastore 92 / +13° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Aleem Rico 97 / +15° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Rill Devezin 98 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →