==============================================================================
Expos 5, Orcas 4                                            2026-08-23 · #1464
at Abdurakhmanov Park
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Montreal                5    5    6    0
Vancouver               4    4    3    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gareca      3b ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Grizzli pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Katsuhisa   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Geffrard    1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Creek       lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
López       p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
MacKay      ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Spence      c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Solórza ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hiebert     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  c-Fieldin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Warner      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  18   5   6   4   0   0   4   3   8   0   1  0.333
  2B: Gareca (13), Geffrard (23), Creek (19), Solórzano (24).
  SB: Creek (5).
  a-Ran for Gareca in the 5th.
  b-Doubled for Spence in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out for Hiebert in the 5th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Delía       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Godín   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Krickstein  ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Whitley pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Edmonson    rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Granberry   1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  c-McInern pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Quintero    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Abreu       p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Vallado pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Noonan  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Irvin   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Turrentine  j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   4   3   1   0   0   3   8   9   0   1  0.120
  2B: Abreu (2).
  SB: Peavy (11), Cuéllar (3).
  GIDP: Edmonson (2), Godín (4), Turrentine (5), Irvin (6).
  a-Batted for Delía in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Krickstein in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Granberry in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Abreu in the 3rd.
  e-Walked for Whitley in the 4th.
  f-Grounded out in the 8th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
López (W, 18-1) .....    20   17  63%    2    3    3    4    6    0   73    -
Huard ...............    13   10  37%    1    1    1    4    3    0   44  1-0

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abreu (L, 2-3) ......    16   12  44%    4    4    4    3    7    0   46    -
Aupiu ...............     5    4  15%    2    1    1    0    1    0   13  1-0

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | López (Outs 1-17) → Huard (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Katsuhisa (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | MacKay (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hiebert (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Warner (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-16)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Abreu (Outs 1-12) → Aupiu (Outs 13-16)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-16)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Granberry (Outs 1-16)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Quintero (Outs 1-16)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-16)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Krickstein (Outs 1-16)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-16)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-16)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edmonson (Outs 1-16)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  First pitch 4:05 PM PT. Weather: 82°F · Wind in · Clear · Light rain. seed 707870.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.79
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 6 Papu Abreu Andrea Peavy (3B) 0–1 —
B 7 Yerry Cuéllar Nahitan Valladolid (2B) 0–2 —
B 17 Yerry Cuéllar Berkeley Whitley (3B) 0–3 —
B 25 Nahitan Valladolid Lipe McInerney (2B) 0–4 —
T 8 Fran Creek Roscoe Spence (3B) 1–4 0.63
T 8 Devron López Fran Creek (3B) 2–4 0.47
T 12 Rónald Solórzano Maciek Grizzlies (2B) 3–4 0.40
T 12 Rónald Solórzano Raiden MacKay (1B) 4–4 0.20
T 16 Quincy Geffrard Devron López (1B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.79
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Expos — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Quincy Geffrard — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 138 ft Román Gareca — double · EV 97 mph · LA +26° · 291 ft Carson Warner — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 119 mph · LA +32° · 480 ft Omni Fielding — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Fran Creek — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 387 ft Román Gareca — single · EV 119 mph · LA +6° · 113 ft Quincy Geffrard — double · EV 119 mph · LA +15° · 285 ft Fran Creek — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 451 ft Devron López — single · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 155 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Norris Mendez — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Andrea Peavy — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Papu Abreu — double · EV 92 mph · LA +47° · 339 ft Yerry Cuéllar — single · EV 96 mph · LA +9° · 109 ft Omar Godín — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Alexis Edmonson — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Coen Turrentine — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Stuart Irvin — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Louis Badger — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Norris Mendez — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +20° · 70 ft Andrea Peavy — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Coen Turrentine — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Alexis Edmonson — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Prakash Granberry — single · EV 77 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Nahitan Valladolid — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Andrea Peavy — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
54% deserve-to-win  ·  8.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.1 vs expected
contact: 14.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-4.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Fran Creek 119 / +26° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Rónald Solórzano 119 / +32° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.64
Román Gareca 97 / +26° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Quincy Geffrard 88 / +13° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Omni Fielding 100 / +8° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Orcas
46% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.4 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Papu Abreu 92 / +47° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Coen Turrentine 76 / +16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Prakash Granberry 77 / +16° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Andrea Peavy 76 / +13° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Coen Turrentine 76 / +13° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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