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Marlins 15, Red Sox 2                                       2026-08-23 · #1463
at North Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Miami                  15      0   15   13    0
Boston                  2      0    2    5    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Enterline   ss ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Dibert      lf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.333
Suárez      2b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Suggs       j  ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Todd-Willia rf ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.400
Corzo       3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mangin      c  ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.200
Altamirano  1b ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Yanagi      p  ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.400
  a-Chappel ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  39  15  13   7   0   0  15   4  14   0   0  0.333
  2B: Enterline 2 (12), Dibert (9), Suárez (18), Suggs (8), Todd-Williams (2), Yanagi (4).
  GIDP: Altamirano (9).
  a-Batted in the 7th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cameron     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suazo       2b ......    0   0   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   .000
  a-Kamara  pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Venegas     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Nytes   pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Núñez       c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Falby       1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hodges      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Cordano     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hampton     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pope    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Merrill ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Rowley  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26   2   5   1   0   0   2   4   5   1   0  0.192
  2B: Nytes (13).
  SB: Kamara (1).
  CS: Rowley (4).
  HBP: Saravia (1).
  GIDP: Cameron (4).
  a-Ran for Suazo in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Venegas in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Hampton in the 7th.
  d-Grounded out for Pope in the 6th.
  e-Singled in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Yanagi (W, 2-13) ....    15   13   60  4.0    2    2    2    4    2    0    -
Joly ................    14   13   43  3.1    2    0    0    0    3    0    -
Baird ...............     1    1    1  1.0    0    0    0    0    0    0  2-0

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hampton .............     8    5   28  3.5    3    2    2    0    4    0    -
Barnhill ............     5    2   11  2.2    4    3    3    0    1    0  1-0
Mejía (L, 1-2) ......    15   11   37  2.5    3    4    4    2    4    0  1-0
Johnson .............    10    5   42  4.2    2    5    1    2    3    0  1-1
Hardy ...............     4    4   13  3.2    0    1    1    0    2    0  2-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Yanagi (Outs 1-13) → Joly (Outs 14-26) → Baird (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Enterline (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | —
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Todd-Williams (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hampton (Outs 1-5) → Barnhill (Outs 6-7) → Mejía (Outs 8-18) → Johnson (Outs 19-23) → Hardy (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hodges (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted second; Marlins batted first.
  Seconds: MIA o26 (15-0), BOS o26 (2-15).
  First pitch 1:05 PM ET. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 748654.
  Powerplays: Red Sox — Nytes NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.78    Peak faced 42.00
    27 outs left: 1.78
    18 outs left: 2.33
     9 outs left: 4.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Carson Suggs Kendall Suárez (1B) 1–0 —
T 4 Devon Mangin Carson Suggs (2B) 2–0 —
T 5 Shota Yanagi Jean Altamirano (1B) 3–0 —
T 5 Wallace Enterline Shota Yanagi (2B) 4–0 —
T 6 Kendall Suárez Wallace Enterline (2B) 5–0 —
T 12 Jean Altamirano Wilmer Corzo (3B) 6–0 —
T 17 Alex Dibert Bob Todd-Williams (2B) 7–0 —
T 17 Alex Dibert Kendall Suárez (1B) 8–0 —
T 17 Wallace Enterline Alex Dibert (2B) 9–0 —
T 20 Bob Todd-Williams Wallace Enterline (2B) 10–0 —
T 20 Clifford Chappell Alex Dibert (2B) 11–0 —
T 22 Shota Yanagi Bob Todd-Williams (3B) 12–0 —
T 22 Jean Altamirano Clifford Chappell (3B) 13–0 —
T 22 Jean Altamirano Jean Altamirano (2B) 14–0 —
T 22 Devon Mangin Shota Yanagi (2B) 15–0 —
B 8 Kervin Venegas Jide Falby (3B) 15–1 2.37
B 8 Walter Núñez Ferdi Pope (3B) 15–2 2.21
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.78
Peak faced 42.00
27 outs left 1.78
18 outs left 2.33
9 outs left 4.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 5 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Kendall Suárez — single · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Carson Suggs — double · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Devon Mangin — single · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Jean Altamirano — single · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 90 ft Shota Yanagi — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 298 ft Clifford Chappell — error · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 296 ft Wallace Enterline — double · EV 91 mph · LA +29° · 282 ft Kendall Suárez — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 385 ft Jean Altamirano — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 128 ft Shota Yanagi — fielders_choice · EV 93 mph · LA -26° · 88 ft Jean Altamirano — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 119 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Bob Todd-Williams — double · EV 112 mph · LA +17° · 282 ft Carson Suggs — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +36° · 316 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 161 ft Wallace Enterline — double · EV 114 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Bob Todd-Williams — single · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Devon Mangin — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 310 ft Shota Yanagi — line_out · EV 104 mph · LA +24° · 325 ft Jean Altamirano — single · EV 119 mph · LA +8° · 113 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Devon Mangin — error · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Carson Suggs — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +2° · 76 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Kervin Venegas — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +28° · 255 ft Tony Cameron — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +27° · 319 ft Vinicius Cordano — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Manuel Suazo — single · EV 80 mph · LA +24° · 195 ft Diego Saravia — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Inman Nytes — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +34° · 367 ft Craig Kamara — single · EV 95 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Kervin Venegas — single · EV 99 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 286 ft Tony Cameron — double_play · EV 97 mph · LA -14° · 92 ft Diego Saravia — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 230 ft Jide Falby — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +20° · 174 ft Craig Kamara — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +16° · 168 ft Inman Nytes — double · EV 88 mph · LA +47° · 310 ft Vinicius Cordano — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -18° · 59 ft Tony Cameron — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +15° · 76 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft Jide Falby — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 160 ft Walter Núñez — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +16° · 184 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
66% deserve-to-win  ·  11.7 expected runs
actual 15 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 23.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (-4.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shota Yanagi 104 / +24° Oppo Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Wallace Enterline 114 / +43° Oppo Double 3.6 → 2 -1.58
Wallace Enterline 91 / +29° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Jean Altamirano 96 / +10° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Clifford Chappell 100 / +24° Pull Reached on Error 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Red Sox
34% deserve-to-win  ·  8.3 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -6.3 vs expected
contact: 12.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-7.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Inman Nytes 99 / +34° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Vinicius Cordano 92 / +42° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Jide Falby 96 / +13° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Tony Cameron 99 / +27° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Inman Nytes 88 / +47° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
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