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Canaries 5, Orioles 4                                       2026-08-23 · #1462
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              5    5    5    0
Baltimore               4    4    5    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cordero     lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Kerr    ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nachand     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     c  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campos      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Crader      p  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Lacava      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Navarro pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Hollenbeck  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Savides     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Barron      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    0   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   0   .000
Totals                  10   5   5   2   0   0   5   3   3   1   0  0.500
  2B: Pastore (12), Crader (5).
  CS: Pastore (7).
  HBP: Cordero (9).
  a-Walked for Cordero in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Alison  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Schloss     cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Flowers     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Stokke      c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Sigourney   3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Samudio     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Wayar       p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Melch       cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Kautz   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Michulk pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Thompson    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   4   5   0   0   0   4   5  11   0   0  0.185
  SB: Stokke 2 (10).
  CS: Foust (7), Michulka (6).
  HBP: Purchase (3).
  GIDP: Wayar (1).
  a-Batted for Ison in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Schloss in the 3rd.
  c-Grounded out for Wayar in the 9th.
  d-Walked for Barba in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Kautz in the 5th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Crader (W, 17-3) ....    33   27  123  3.7    5    4    4    5   11    0    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wayar (L, 9-5) ......    12    8   45  3.8    4    3    3    1    3    0    -
Solo ................     2    1   13  6.5    1    2    2    2    0    0  1-1

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Savides (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Barron (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-9)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wayar (Outs 1-8) → Solo (Outs 9-9)
CATCHER (C)       | Stokke (Outs 1-9)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-9)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-9)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sigourney (Outs 1-9)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-9)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-9)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Melch (Outs 1-9)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Flowers (Outs 1-9)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM ET. Weather: 97°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 554738.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.60
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 12 Arkie Rubin Ulises Barba (3B) 0–1 —
B 12 Arkie Rubin Maciek Stokke (2B) 0–2 —
B 21 Destyn Thompson Maciek Stokke (3B) 0–3 —
B 24 Nicolas Lichnovsky Destyn Thompson (3B) 0–4 —
T 2 Tripp Hollenbeck Grant Cordero (2B) 1–4 0.48
T 7 Renaldo Pastore Vincent Crader (3B) 2–4 0.45
T 8 Vincent Crader Renaldo Pastore (1B) 3–4 0.32
T 9 Jesse Woodall Vincent Crader (3B) 4–4 0.17
T 9 Jesse Woodall Jerome Kerr (2B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.60
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 221 ft Hugo Campos — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +22° · 200 ft Vincent Crader — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 132 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -7° · 76 ft Levar Nachand — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +32° · 267 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 80 mph · LA +20° · 166 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 84 mph · LA +9° · 85 ft Vincent Crader — double · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 193 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Zaimir Schloss — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 99 ft Korey Flowers — single · EV 78 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -19° · 71 ft Emilio Wayar — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 185 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 87 mph · LA +1° · 82 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +15° · 108 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 102 ft Nicolas Lichnovsky — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 230 ft Emilio Wayar — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +17° · 185 ft Maciek Stokke — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 116 ft Emilio Wayar — double_play · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -9° · 65 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +27° · 409 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
48% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 5.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Vincent Crader 95 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Renaldo Pastore 100 / +17° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.77
Hugo Campos 85 / +22° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Jesse Woodall 80 / +20° Oppo Stay 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Renaldo Pastore 84 / +9° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Orioles
52% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mackenzie Sigourney 112 / +27° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Emilio Wayar 93 / +16° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Emilio Wayar 90 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Korey Flowers 78 / -2° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Arkie Rubin 87 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
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