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Dodgers 4, Diamondbacks 3                                   2026-08-24 · #1470
at Wold Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Arizona                 3    3    5    0
Los Angeles             4    4    3    0

DIAMONDBACKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maupin      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Ullstro ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
McNutt      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Start       ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Schmelz pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Gronowski   2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Bektas      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Foyth       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Linton      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Henry       3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Efird       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pierre- ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Baxter  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Alderma ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Sitanil ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Galekovic   j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Manasse     j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   3   5   1   0   0   3   3  15   0   0  0.172
  2B: Manasse (8).
  SB: Start 2 (16), Schmelzle (12).
  CS: Gronowski 2 (20).
  GIDP: Henry (3), Baxter (4).
  a-Batted for Maupin in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Start in the 4th.
  c-Struck out for Efird in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Galekovic in the 4th.
  e-Batted for Schmelzle in the 5th.
  f-Batted for Pierre-Louis in the 6th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ochoa       ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Eggleston   3b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Guarnera    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Llorente    p  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Maier       lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gerardy     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Swanson     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Daniels     c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Garcés      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Murray  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Richard pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kromah      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   9   4   3   1   0   0   3   4   2   0   0  0.333
  2B: Llorente (5).
  a-Singled in the 3rd.
  b-Ran in the 6th.

DIAMONDBACKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Efird (L, 10-9) .....    12    8  30%    2    4    4    4    2    0   50    -

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Llorente (W, 11-4) ..    17   13  48%    3    2    2    2    8    0   59    -
Noguchi .............    15   14  52%    2    1    1    1    7    0   47  2-1

DIAMONDBACKS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-8)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Efird (Outs 1-8)
CATCHER (C)       | Maupin (Outs 1-8)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bektas (Outs 1-8)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gronowski (Outs 1-8)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Henry (Outs 1-8)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Start (Outs 1-8)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | McNutt (Outs 1-8)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foyth (Outs 1-8)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Linton (Outs 1-8)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Llorente (Outs 1-13) → Noguchi (Outs 14-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Daniels (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Guarnera (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maier (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Garcés (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted second; Diamondbacks batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM PT. Weather: 99°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 188105.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.44
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 13 Dennis Manasse Wallace Schmelzle (3B) 1–0 —
T 13 Dennis Manasse Wallace Schmelzle (3B) 2–0 —
T 15 Irving Ullstrom Ron Gronowski (3B) 3–0 —
B 0 Cristián Llorente Lenny Eggleston (1B) 3–1 0.33
B 4 Tony Garcés Cristián Llorente (3B) 3–2 0.26
B 5 Tomm Kromah Bautista Ochoa (3B) 3–3 0.14
B 7 Hubertus Murray Suntarine Richards (2B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.44
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Diamondbacks — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Huntley Maupin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft Toby Start — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Ron Gronowski — single · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Joao Foyth — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 49 ft Miguel Linton — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft Shyheim Baxter — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Dennis Manasse — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Irving Ullstrom — error · EV 52 mph · LA +22° · 74 ft Will Galekovic — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Shyheim Baxter — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -3° · 57 ft Gavin Sitanilei — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +32° · 239 ft Eugene Henry — double_play · EV 53 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Phillip Bektas — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Miguel McNutt — single · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
4 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Cristián Llorente — double · EV 96 mph · LA +12° · 149 ft Tony Garcés — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Tomm Kromah — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -14° · 94 ft Hubertus Murray — single · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 217 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Diamondbacks
29% deserve-to-win  ·  2.2 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 4.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+1.2 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 2 CS (-0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dennis Manasse 92 / +37° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Toby Start 76 / -10° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Ron Gronowski 76 / -9° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Miguel McNutt 92 / +4° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Will Galekovic 76 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Dodgers
71% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 3.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cristián Llorente 96 / +12° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Tomm Kromah 99 / -14° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Tony Garcés 81 / +4° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.30
Hubertus Murray 98 / +17° Pull Single 1.2 → 1 -0.22
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