==============================================================================
Orcas 6, Expos 5                                            2026-08-24 · #1474
at Abdurakhmanov Park
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Montreal                5    5   10    1
Vancouver               6    6    5    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solórzano   lf ......    4   1   3   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Creek       rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gareca      3b ......    3   1   3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Fieldin pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rezac       p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Grizzlies   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Goodson     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Katsuhisa   1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Spence      ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Geffrar ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hiebert     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   5  10   6   0   0   4   2   9   0   0  0.312
  2B: Solórzano 2 (26), Creek (20), Gareca 2 (15), Katsuhisa (5).
  CS: Solórzano (10), Fielding (4).
  E: Goodson (11).
  a-Ran for Gareca in the 7th.
  b-Struck out for Spence in the 8th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mendez      2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Badger  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Krickstein  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Godín   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Edmonson    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Delía       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Teeguar pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Whitley     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Granberry   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Quintero    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Noonan  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Irvin   ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Vallado pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-McInern pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  19   6   5   0   0   0   3   4   8   0   0  0.263
  GIDP: Edmonson (3).
  a-Batted for Mendez in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Krickstein in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Delía in the 3rd.
  d-Walked for Quintero in the 6th.
  e-Singled for Valladolid in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 2nd.
  g-Ran for Noonan in the 5th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Rezac ...............    18   12   59  3.3    4    3    1    2    9    0    -
Chang ...............     4    3    9  2.2    0    1    1    1    0    0  3-1
Matthews (L, 7-6) ...     2    0   10  5.0    1    2    2    1    0    0  3-2

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Martínez (W, 7-3) ...    29   24   98  3.4    9    5    5    1    8    0    -
Quevedo .............     4    3   15  3.8    0    0    0    1    1    0  1-0

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-15)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Rezac (Outs 1-12) → Chang (Outs 13-15)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-15)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Katsuhisa (Outs 1-15)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-15)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-15)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Spence (Outs 1-15)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-15)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hiebert (Outs 1-15)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Creek (Outs 1-15)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Martínez (Outs 1-24) → Quevedo (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Edmonson (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Krickstein (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Whitley (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Expos batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM PT. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 654941.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.75
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 David Rezac Rónald Solórzano (3B) 1–0 —
T 7 Rónald Solórzano Roscoe Spence (1B) 2–0 —
T 8 Elliott Currier Fran Creek (3B) 3–0 —
T 9 Curt Gibson Román Gareca (3B) 4–0 —
T 24 Rónald Solórzano David Rezac (1B) 5–0 —
B 4 Prakash Granberry Norris Mendez (3B) 5–1 0.65
B 5 Sandy Martínez Berkeley Whitley (3B) 5–2 0.55
B 12 Stuart Irvin Nahitan Valladolid (3B) 5–3 0.60
B 12 Ivan Teeguarden Lipe McInerney (2B) 5–4 0.40
B 15 Omar Godín Ivan Teeguarden (3B) 5–5 0.25
B 15 Alexis Edmonson Stuart Irvin (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.75
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Expos — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 70 mph · LA +26° · 154 ft Fran Creek — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +23° · 263 ft Román Gareca — single · EV 101 mph · LA +7° · 96 ft Maciek Grizzlies — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +20° · 127 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — double · EV 90 mph · LA +10° · 112 ft Roscoe Spence — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Curt Gibson — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +33° · 370 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 96 mph · LA +28° · 300 ft Fran Creek — double · EV 91 mph · LA +29° · 280 ft Román Gareca — double · EV 90 mph · LA +28° · 267 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 131 ft Marquis Goodson — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +20° · 202 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -1° · 60 ft Rónald Solórzano — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 283 ft Fran Creek — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Román Gareca — double · EV 104 mph · LA +22° · 299 ft Maciek Grizzlies — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 270 ft Marquis Goodson — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +38° · 250 ft David Rezac — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +54° · 267 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 105 mph · LA +26° · 347 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Norris Mendez — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 158 ft Andrea Peavy — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +45° · 231 ft Berkeley Whitley — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Jonás Quintero — error · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Stuart Irvin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 161 ft Ivan Teeguarden — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Mateus Delía — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 193 ft Alexis Edmonson — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA +7° · 61 ft Louis Badger — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft Alexis Edmonson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
78% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 17.7 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Curt Gibson 101 / +33° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Fran Creek 100 / +16° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Fran Creek 91 / +29° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Román Gareca 90 / +28° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Fran Creek 95 / +23° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Orcas
22% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.4 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Louis Badger 92 / +36° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Alexis Edmonson 76 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Berkeley Whitley 76 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Jonás Quintero 76 / +12° Oppo Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Stuart Irvin 76 / +22° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →