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Canaries 2, Orioles 1                                       2026-08-24 · #1473
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              2    2    7    0
Baltimore               1    1    4    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Richey      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Pastore ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Nachand     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Campos      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Israel      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  b-Barron  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Navarro     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Rushing     1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Savides     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kerr    ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Morriso pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Cordero ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  24   2   7   2   0   0   2   1  11   0   1  0.292
  2B: Morrison (5), Pastore (13).
  SB: Hollenbeck (10).
  CS: Morrison (6).
  a-Doubled for Richey in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Israel in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Savides in the 9th.
  d-Ran for Pastore in the 8th.
  e-Batted in the 5th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kautz       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Foust       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Schloss     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Alison  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mills       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Stokke      rf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Purchas ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ison        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kagame  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Samudio     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Shaffer     p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Barba   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Heath   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Thompson    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   1   4   1   0   0   1   3   9   0   0  0.160
  2B: Stokke (2).
  GIDP: Samudio (5).
  a-Batted for Schloss in the 5th.
  b-Walked for Stokke in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Ison in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Shaffer in the 3rd.
  e-Struck out for Thompson in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Israel (W, 9-10) ....    27   27 100%    3    1    1    3    9    0  106    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Shaffer (L, 10-4) ...    25   23  85%    7    2    2    1   12    0   88    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Savides (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Navarro (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-23)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-23)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-23)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foust (Outs 1-23)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-23)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-23)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-23)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Ison (Outs 1-23)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-23)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Stokke (Outs 1-23)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM ET. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 665270.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 19 Rónald Samudio Ulises Barba (3B) 0–1 —
T 23 Jerome Kerr Jayden Rushing (2B) 1–1 0.75
T 23 Ulises Morrison Jerome Kerr (1B) 2–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Hugo Campos — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 98 mph · LA -19° · 93 ft Levar Nachand — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 119 mph · LA +32° · 480 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +13° · 163 ft Jesse Woodall — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 219 ft Ulises Morrison — double · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 219 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 84 mph · LA -14° · 80 ft Hugo Campos — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +8° · 63 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 95 mph · LA -3° · 90 ft Jayden Rushing — single · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 144 ft Sidney Foust — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 137 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 74 ft Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +25° · 154 ft Maciek Stokke — double · EV 89 mph · LA +37° · 301 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 75 ft Cole Shaffer — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Cole Shaffer — single · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 86 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +2° · 93 ft Rill Kautz — line_out · EV 60 mph · LA +16° · 75 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 97 mph · LA +9° · 112 ft Rónald Samudio — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 75 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
45% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 9.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerome Kerr 97 / +13° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Renaldo Pastore 119 / +32° Center Double 2.9 → 2 -0.93
Ulises Morrison 98 / +18° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Tripp Hollenbeck 84 / -14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Jayden Rushing 88 / -9° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Orioles
55% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.8 vs expected
contact: 6.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Maciek Stokke 89 / +37° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Sidney Foust 92 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Cole Shaffer 90 / +3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Rill Kautz 85 / +15° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Rónald Samudio 81 / +8° Pull Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.58
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