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Astros 8, Braves 6                                          2026-08-25 · #1487
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Atlanta                 6    6    8    1
Houston                 8    8    8    1

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Lamar   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Nilo        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Vargas  ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Kalogeropou lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Spencer     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Almeida pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bray        rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Powlus  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Molin   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nightingale 1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Martín  pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Morrow      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Alvelo  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  h-Sapriss pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Allison pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ortiz       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
María       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   6   8   1   0   0   4   5  11   0   0  0.296
  2B: Kalogeropoulos (23).
  SB: Chu (30), Sauerbrunn 2 (21), Martín (9).
  CS: Chu (12), Kalogeropoulos (11), Spencer (14).
  E: Powlus (1).
  HBP: Nightingale (5), Ortiz (5).
  GIDP: Saprissa (5).
  a-Singled for Chu in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Nilo in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Spencer in the 6th.
  d-Singled for Sauerbrunn in the 7th.
  e-Walked for Ramon-Edwards in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Nightingale in the 6th.
  g-Batted for Morrow in the 6th.
  h-Ran for Lamar in the 6th.
  i-Ran in the 7th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.667
Pitchford   ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Rivas       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Patridge    rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Plum        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Morales ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gómez       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wood        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Konig   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Takada  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Moros   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Henríqu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Trejo       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Oliveira    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  21   8   8   4   0   1   8   3   4   0   0  0.381
  2B: O'Connor 2 (15), Pitchford (3), Valencia (7).
  HR: Kingsbury (4), off Morrow.
  E: Konig (1).
  a-Grounded out for Plum in the 4th.
  b-Ran in the 6th.
  c-Walked in the 6th.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Takada in the 5th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Morrow ..............    13   10   43  3.3    4    3    1    1    1    1    -
Voorhees (L, 2-2) ...    11    6   48  4.4    4    5    5    2    3    0  1-0

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wood (W, 2-3) .......    19   16   80  4.2    4    1    1    1    9    0    -
Francavilla .........     4    3   21  5.2    0    2    2    2    1    0  3-1
Ayala ...............     4    1   13  3.2    2    3    3    2    0    0  2-2
Abrams ..............     6    7   18  3.0    1    0    0    0    1    0  1-0

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-16)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-10) → Voorhees (Outs 11-16)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-16)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nightingale (Outs 1-16)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Spencer (Outs 1-16)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-16)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-16)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-16)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-16)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-16)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wood (Outs 1-16) → Francavilla (Outs 17-19) → Ayala (Outs 20-20) → Abrams (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Plum (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Braves batted first.
  First pitch 7:15 PM CT. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 891185.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 0.95
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 16 Dennis Lamar Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 1–0 —
T 17 Edgar Ortiz Joseph Martín (3B) 2–0 —
T 17 Zack Spencer Haxzel Saprissa (3B) 3–0 —
T 19 Beals Powlus Edgar Ortiz (2B) 4–0 —
T 20 Lyrik Molin Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (3B) 5–0 —
T 20 Joseph Martín Cameron Allison (3B) 6–0 —
B 1 Marcos Kingsbury Marcos Kingsbury (HR) 6–1 0.69
B 10 Dante O'Connor Cedrick Konig (2B) 6–2 0.88
B 10 Butch Patridge Dante O'Connor (2B) 6–3 0.71
B 13 Maxi Valencia Iapani Thom (1B) 6–4 0.64
B 13 Benicio Trejo Maxi Valencia (2B) 6–5 0.43
B 16 Dante O'Connor Angel Henríquez (3B) 6–6 0.27
B 16 Dante O'Connor Benicio Trejo (2B) 6–7 0.00
B 16 Dante O'Connor Marcos Kingsbury (1B) 6–8 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 0.95
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Braves — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Oscar Nilo — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 190 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — double · EV 82 mph · LA +39° · 263 ft Jonathan Morrow — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 336 ft Mirko Alvelo — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 273 ft Dennis Lamar — single · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Beals Powlus — single · EV 81 mph · LA +10° · 87 ft Joseph Martín — infield_single · EV 64 mph · LA -11° · 60 ft Haxzel Saprissa — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Cameron Allison — fly_out · EV 65 mph · LA +36° · 161 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 95 mph · LA -10° · 90 ft Mariano Vargas — single · EV 108 mph · LA +20° · 296 ft Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Mariano Vargas — error · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 203 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 184 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Scoville Rivas — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 108 ft Marcos Kingsbury — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Dante O'Connor — line_out · EV 108 mph · LA +4° · 103 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -15° · 76 ft Mayer Gómez — error · EV 75 mph · LA -0° · 71 ft Raz Pitchford — double · EV 98 mph · LA +27° · 314 ft Mirko Moros — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +47° · 288 ft Maxi Valencia — double · EV 106 mph · LA +14° · 214 ft Benicio Trejo — single · EV 93 mph · LA +23° · 248 ft Marcelo Oliveira — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 110 mph · LA +15° · 248 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 78 mph · LA +21° · 166 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 79 mph · LA -8° · 75 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 90 mph · LA +32° · 291 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
42% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 3 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kreigh Kalogeropoulos 82 / +39° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Mirko Alvelo 100 / +21° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jonathan Morrow 92 / +44° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Mariano Vargas 94 / +17° Pull Reached on Error 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Joseph Martín 64 / -11° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Astros
58% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 12.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+2.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Kingsbury 100 / +42° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.40
Dante O'Connor 90 / +32° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.05
Raz Pitchford 98 / +27° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Scoville Rivas 88 / +10° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Iapani Thom 79 / -8° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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