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Marlins 4, Padres 3                                         2026-08-25 · #1488
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   4    4    8    0
San Diego               3    3    5    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Fitzgerald  p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   2  0.500
Dibert      2b ......    4   1   2   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Suárez      3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Mangin      c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Enquist     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nantze      j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Totals                  27   4   8   0   1   0   4   2   8   0   2  0.296
  3B: Dibert (2).
  CS: Chieh-yu (18).
  HBP: Enquist (7).
  GIDP: Mangin (15), Enquist (16).


PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Staten      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Salcido pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Andrade     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Atehort pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Fernández   lf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Deery       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Alemu       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Manzano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Schwinger   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Arozarena   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Gleeson ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   5   0   0   0   3   5  11   0   0  0.192
  SB: Staten (6), Atehortua (14).
  CS: Arozarena (3).
  HBP: Atehortua (8), Arozarena (2).
  GIDP: Deery (5).
  a-Ran for MacCracken in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Andrade in the 7th.
  c-Walked for Alemu in the 7th.
  d-Struck out in the 8th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Fitzgerald (W, 9-12)     33   27  119  3.6    5    3    3    5   11    0    -

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Arozarena (L, 9-5) ..    30   27  117  3.9    8    4    4    2    8    0    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Arozarena (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Deery (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted second; Marlins batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM PT. Weather: 93°F · Wind in · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 587626.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Wallace Enterline Devon Mangin (3B) 1–0 —
T 13 Montavious Chieh-yu Cary Nantze (3B) 2–0 —
T 13 Randall Fitzgerald Kendall Suárez (3B) 3–0 —
T 16 Alex Dibert Alex Dibert (3B) 4–0 —
B 16 Israel Fernández Zane Staten (2B) 4–1 1.09
B 17 Haxzel Andrade Israel Fernández (2B) 4–2 0.90
B 17 Zane Staten Ángelo Salcido (2B) 4–3 0.60
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Marlins — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Randall Fitzgerald — single · EV 64 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Wallace Enterline — single · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA +6° · 54 ft Jason Enquist — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +7° · 56 ft Wallace Enterline — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA -15° · 66 ft Cary Nantze — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 136 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 56 mph · LA -3° · 53 ft Alex Dibert — single · EV 57 mph · LA +18° · 78 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 230 ft Devon Mangin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Alex Dibert — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +33° · 377 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -2° · 78 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -6° · 62 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Alex Dibert — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Israel Fernández — single · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Zane Staten — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 150 ft Trevor Deery — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -17° · 95 ft Yimmi Arozarena — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +2° · 81 ft Zane Staten — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Haxzel Andrade — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +24° · 270 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 112 mph · LA +4° · 107 ft Trevor Deery — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA -23° · 84 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 106 ft Haxzel Andrade — single · EV 99 mph · LA -11° · 94 ft Zane Staten — single · EV 88 mph · LA +18° · 184 ft Trevor Deery — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -12° · 94 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Zane Staten — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +19° · 188 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
12% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 6.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+3.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alex Dibert 101 / +33° Oppo Triple 1.9 → 3 +1.05
Wallace Enterline 69 / -15° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Kendall Suárez 56 / -3° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Jason Enquist 92 / +25° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Randall Fitzgerald 64 / +10° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Padres
88% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -4.3 vs expected
contact: 8.1 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zane Staten 88 / +19° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Haxzel Andrade 95 / +24° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Israel Fernández 88 / -10° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Zane Staten 83 / +16° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Haxzel Andrade 99 / -11° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.56
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