==============================================================================
Phillies 8, Nationals 6                                     2026-08-26 · #1489
at Tannery Yards
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            8    8    6    1
Washington              6    6    6    1

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Mattke      rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Logar       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Santos      3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Israilov    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Andrade ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ka'apana    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Awoniyi ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Vásquez     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Martín  pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Skeen       2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Dias        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Alvarad pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   .000
  e-Tabarac pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Borges  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   8   6   3   0   0   7   6  10   0   0  0.200
  2B: Grizzlies (37), Santos (28), Martín (3).
  SB: Santos (19), Alvarado (4).
  CS: Grizzlies (13).
  E: Martín (4).
  GIDP: Logar (6), Borges (7).
  a-Grounded out for Israilov in the 4th.
  b-Singled for Ka'apana in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Vásquez in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Awoniyi in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Batted in the 6th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Musso       p  ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Jones-W pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Miguelito   lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Devezin     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Cheng       3b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Baloy       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Menz        ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ebun        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   6   6   1   1   0   5   4  13   0   2  0.207
  2B: Thompkins (10).
  3B: Mayer (1).
  SB: Devezin (20), Cheng (12).
  CS: Cheng (6).
  E: Pastore (3).
  a-Ran for Burrows in the 6th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dias (W, 1-0) .......    23   21  78%    4    2    2    3    9    0   80    -
Flam ................     4    2   7%    1    2    1    0    2    0   12  2-2
Bowen ...............     4    3  11%    1    2    2    0    1    0   14  2-2
Marte ...............     2    1   4%    0    0    0    1    1    0    5  1-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Musso ...............    23   17  63%    5    3    1    3    7    0   76    -
Gilliom (L, 0-2) ....    13   10  37%    1    5    5    3    3    0   53  3-3

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Dias (Outs 1-21) → Flam (Outs 22-23) → Bowen (Outs 24-26) → Marte (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Vásquez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Skeen (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Santos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ka'apana (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mattke (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Musso (Outs 1-17) → Gilliom (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Menz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  First pitch 7:35 PM ET. Weather: 86°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain. seed 137128.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 15.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 3.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Iván Dias Sandy Santos (3B) 1–0 —
T 15 Zach Grizzlies Nicolas Martín (3B) 2–0 —
T 15 Devron Borges Zach Grizzlies (3B) 3–0 —
T 17 Derlis Alvarado Zach Grizzlies (3B) 4–0 —
T 19 Iván Dias Adhithya Tabaracci (2B) 5–0 —
T 20 Anthony Mattke Derlis Alvarado (2B) 6–0 —
T 26 Nicolas Martín Anthony Mattke (3B) 7–0 —
T 26 Nicolas Martín Derlis Alvarado (2B) 8–0 —
B 20 Damion Thompkins David Musso (2B) 8–1 3.43
B 21 Cheng-wei Cheng Devron San Miguelito (3B) 8–2 3.50
B 22 Raz Menz Damion Thompkins (3B) 8–3 3.60
B 23 David Musso Cheng-wei Cheng (3B) 8–4 3.75
B 26 Tyler Mayer David Musso (2B) 8–5 12.00
B 26 Tyler Mayer Carl Jones-Wesley (1B) 8–6 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 15.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 3.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 172 ft Marco Logar — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +21° · 159 ft Sandy Santos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 238 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 85 mph · LA +21° · 194 ft Bryan Andrade — error · EV 72 mph · LA -8° · 69 ft Devron Borges — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -9° · 64 ft Vitas Anthony — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 208 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -0° · 94 ft Marco Logar — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 121 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 105 mph · LA -6° · 100 ft Devron Borges — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -12° · 62 ft Nicolas Martín — double · EV 94 mph · LA +38° · 346 ft Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 102 mph · LA +29° · 356 ft Iván Dias — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 87 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -9° · 66 ft Godfrey Skeen — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +19° · 104 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Rill Devezin — single · EV 103 mph · LA +7° · 98 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 248 ft Raz Menz — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +19° · 167 ft Tyler Mayer — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +39° · 415 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 65 mph · LA +25° · 128 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -23° · 85 ft Basil Burrows — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -0° · 72 ft David Musso — error · EV 78 mph · LA -1° · 74 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — single · EV 81 mph · LA -7° · 77 ft Damion Thompkins — double · EV 106 mph · LA +28° · 373 ft Rill Devezin — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 108 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 201 ft Marcos Pastore — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 291 ft Damion Thompkins — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 324 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
60% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Nicolas Martín 94 / +38° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Vitas Anthony 94 / +18° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Zach Grizzlies 102 / +29° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Sandy Santos 100 / +18° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Marco Logar 77 / +21° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Nationals
40% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cheng-wei Cheng 98 / +20° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Tyler Mayer 103 / +39° Oppo Triple 1.9 → 3 +1.07
Damion Thompkins 93 / +35° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Cheng-wei Cheng 65 / +25° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Marcos Pastore 92 / +30° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →