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Braves 17, Astros 12                                        2026-08-26 · #1490
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Atlanta                17      0   17   15    0
Houston                12      -   12   14    0

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Bombito     p  ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   1  0.667
Nilo        cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Spencer     lf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bray        rf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    5   3   3   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.600
Lamar       1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    4   4   3   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.750
Nightingale 2b ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.200
  a-Vargas  ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  37  17  15   2   0   3  16   1   8   0   1  0.405
  2B: Spencer (21), Lamar (29).
  HR: Chu (12), off Solaun; Bombito (3), off Faber; Ramon-Edwards (7), off Kryvonos.
  SB: Chu (31), Spencer (11), Ramon-Edwards 2 (10).
  HBP: Chu (5), Vargas (5).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pitchford   ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Prince  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Plum        lf ......    5   1   3   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Rivas       3b ......    5   3   3   2   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.600
O'Connor    2b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   2   2   1   0   0  0.667
  b-Henríqu pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Morales     1b ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.200
Thom        c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Gómez       cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Faber       p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Kingsbu ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Tassew  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  36  12  14   8   0   1  12   4  11   0   1  0.389
  2B: Plum 2 (6), Rivas 2 (29), O'Connor (16), Morales (15), Gómez (12), Kingsbury (13).
  HR: Rivas (7), off Rodriguez.
  SB: O'Connor 2 (8), Prince (1).
  CS: Plum 2 (6), O'Connor (7).
  a-Ran for Patridge in the 7th.
  b-Ran for O'Connor in the 9th.
  c-Batted in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Kingsbury in the 9th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bombito (W, 8-6) ....    16   12   63  3.9    5    4    4    1    6    0    -
Buford ..............    13   11   51  3.9    4    2    2    1    4    0  1-0
Morejón .............     6    2   18  3.0    4    4    4    0    1    0  1-1
Rodriguez ...........     5    2   23  4.6    1    2    2    2    0    1  1-0

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Faber ...............     5    2   19  3.8    3    3    2    0    1    1    -
Schueck .............     4    1   19  4.8    2    3    3    1    1    0  1-1
Kryvonos (L, 0-5) ...    13    9   44  3.4    4    5    4    0    3    1  2-1
Solaun ..............     6    4   27  4.5    2    5    4    0    2    1  2-2
Berger ..............    10   11   28  2.8    2    1    1    0    1    0    -

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bombito (Outs 1-12) → Buford (Outs 13-23) → Morejón (Outs 24-25) → Rodriguez (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Lamar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Faber (Outs 1-2) → Schueck (Outs 3-3) → Kryvonos (Outs 4-12) → Solaun (Outs 13-16) → Berger (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Plum (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Braves batted first.
  Seconds: ATL o26 (17-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 87°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 986704.
  Walk-Back runs: off Faber 1, off Kryvonos 1, off Solaun 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.00    Peak faced 12.00
    27 outs left: 2.00
    18 outs left: 2.33
     9 outs left: 4.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Donovan Bombito Todd Chu (2B) 1–0 —
T 0 Donovan Bombito Donovan Bombito (HR) 2–0 —
T 0 Oscar Nilo Donovan Bombito (3B) 3–0 —
T 2 Dennis Lamar Zack Spencer (3B) 4–0 —
T 2 Dennis Lamar Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 5–0 —
T 2 Donny Nightingale Dennis Lamar (3B) 6–0 —
T 3 Donovan Bombito Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 7–0 —
T 4 Zack Spencer Todd Chu (3B) 8–0 —
T 11 Sean Ramon-Edwards Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 9–0 —
T 11 Sean Ramon-Edwards Sean Ramon-Edwards (—) 10–0 —
T 11 Akili Sauerbrunn Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 11–0 —
T 12 Zack Spencer Mariano Vargas (3B) 12–0 —
T 12 Zack Spencer Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 13–0 —
T 13 Donovan Bombito Zack Spencer (3B) 14–0 —
T 14 Todd Chu Todd Chu (HR) 15–0 —
T 14 Donny Nightingale Todd Chu (3B) 16–0 —
T 24 Mariano Vargas Akili Sauerbrunn (2B) 17–0 —
B 7 Rhys Faber Butch Patridge (2B) 17–1 2.55
B 7 Scoville Rivas Rhys Faber (1B) 17–2 2.40
B 7 Dante O'Connor Scoville Rivas (2B) 17–3 2.25
B 9 Remington Plum Butch Patridge (1B) 17–4 2.33
B 22 Scoville Rivas Dante O'Connor (2B) 17–5 7.80
B 22 Dante O'Connor Scoville Rivas (2B) 17–6 7.20
B 23 Jeyland Morales Dante O'Connor (3B) 17–7 8.25
B 23 Remington Plum Jeyland Morales (2B) 17–8 7.50
B 24 Mayer Gómez Remington Plum (3B) 17–9 9.00
B 25 Marcos Kingsbury Mayer Gómez (2B) 17–10 12.00
B 25 Scoville Rivas Shimeket Tassew (2B) 17–11 10.50
B 25 Scoville Rivas Scoville Rivas (HR) 17–12 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.00
Peak faced 12.00
27 outs left 2.00
18 outs left 2.33
9 outs left 4.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Braves — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 3 HR
374' 430' 367' Todd Chu — single · EV 85 mph · LA +13° · 127 ft Donovan Bombito — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +39° · 465 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 109 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 297 ft Donny Nightingale — single · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 137 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Mariano Vargas — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +31° · 342 ft Donovan Bombito — single · EV 70 mph · LA +15° · 99 ft Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -17° · 91 ft Zack Spencer — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +27° · 255 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +24° · 190 ft Dennis Lamar — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +40° · 412 ft Todd Chu — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +35° · 456 ft Mariano Vargas — single · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 124 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Zack Spencer — double · EV 97 mph · LA +20° · 243 ft Donovan Bombito — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +60° · 435 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 83 mph · LA -1° · 79 ft Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +28° · 248 ft Donny Nightingale — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +32° · 340 ft Oscar Nilo — line_out · EV 112 mph · LA -5° · 106 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +11° · 131 ft Donny Nightingale — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 165 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 5 1B · 8 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +28° · 254 ft Rhys Faber — single · EV 95 mph · LA -3° · 91 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 82 mph · LA +18° · 161 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 116 mph · LA +19° · 329 ft Dante O'Connor — single · EV 105 mph · LA +10° · 149 ft Jeyland Morales — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +27° · 270 ft Remington Plum — double · EV 99 mph · LA +26° · 306 ft Mayer Gómez — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 296 ft Rhys Faber — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +21° · 147 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 117 mph · LA +4° · 111 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 108 mph · LA +22° · 329 ft Remington Plum — double · EV 88 mph · LA +42° · 308 ft Jeyland Morales — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +34° · 334 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +26° · 371 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 98 mph · LA +25° · 293 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 110 mph · LA +19° · 294 ft Jeyland Morales — double · EV 103 mph · LA +31° · 376 ft Remington Plum — single · EV 105 mph · LA +9° · 139 ft Mayer Gómez — double · EV 96 mph · LA +20° · 232 ft Scoville Rivas — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Remington Plum — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA +7° · 75 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
57% deserve-to-win  ·  14.0 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +3.0 vs expected
contact: 25.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 0 CS (+1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sean Ramon-Edwards 102 / +40° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Donny Nightingale 98 / +32° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Mariano Vargas 98 / +31° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Donovan Bombito 112 / +60° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.02
Sean Ramon-Edwards 94 / +11° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Astros
43% deserve-to-win  ·  12.1 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 26.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 25.0 (-1.1 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 3 CS (-0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scoville Rivas 109 / +26° Oppo Out 2.2 → 0 -2.25
Mayer Gómez 100 / +24° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jeyland Morales 95 / +34° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Remington Plum 99 / +26° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Dante O'Connor 98 / +25° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
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