==============================================================================
Royals 8, Beavers 7                                         2026-08-26 · #1491
at The Oval
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Kansas City             8    8    9    0
Portland                7    7    6    0

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rosales     3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Graham      lf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.667
Monson      2b ......    3   1   3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0  1.000
Fuenzalida  rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Li          p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Ekic    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tanguilig   1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Fontes  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Sabella     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Talavera    cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Devens  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Linnehan    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Farley  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Espinoz pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Press       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  21   8   9   2   1   2   8   3   4   1   0  0.429
  2B: Graham 2 (12).
  3B: Monson (4).
  HR: Li (1), off Giammalva; Tanguilig (2), off Giammalva.
  CS: Devens (8).
  HBP: Fuenzalida (1).
  GIDP: Linnehan (9).
  a-Struck out for Li in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Tanguilig in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Talavera in the 7th.
  d-Grounded out in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Clement     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Tessema     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Vidal   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Hydrick     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Guerra      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Aktaş       3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  b-Turenne pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Vahaly  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Zamora      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Rabess  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Streko      cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-Xue     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Giammalva   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Fuenzal ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Harper  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Sabella pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Palepal pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Redmayne    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7   6   3   0   0   5   4  12   0   0  0.194
  2B: Streko (4), Fuenzalida (11), Harper (10).
  SB: Clement (13), Fuenzalida 2 (6), Vidal (7).
  CS: Clement (12).
  a-Ran for Tessema in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Aktaş in the 9th.
  c-Batted for Holzworth in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Zamora in the 9th.
  e-Ran for Streko in the 8th.
  f-Batted for Giammalva in the 7th.
  g-Doubled in the 7th.
  h-Ran in the 8th.
  i-Ran for Sabella in the 9th.

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Li (W, 15-7) ........    28   23  85%    5    4    4    2   12    0   94    -
Muñoz ...............     6    4  15%    1    3    3    2    0    0   21  2-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Giammalva (L, 5-15) .    27   20  74%    9    8    8    3    6    2  106    -

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Li (Outs 1-23) → Muñoz (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Linnehan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Tanguilig (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Monson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sabella (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Graham (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Talavera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-20)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Giammalva (Outs 1-20)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-20)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-20)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-20)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-20)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Guerra (Outs 1-20)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-20)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-20)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hydrick (Outs 1-20)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Royals batted second.
  First pitch 1:05 PM PT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 652437.
  Powerplays: Royals — Fontes NF (O6)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.29
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 1.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 19 Gabriel Harper Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 0–1 —
B 19 Gabriel Harper Val Clement (2B) 0–2 —
B 22 Donis Zamora Enrique Sabella (3B) 0–3 —
B 23 Val Clement Hua Xue (2B) 0–4 —
B 26 Dawood Aktaş Álvaro Vidal (3B) 0–5 —
B 26 Kyle Rabess Deandre Palepale (3B) 0–6 —
B 26 Kyle Rabess Levar De Turenne (3B) 0–7 —
T 0 George Graham Jhonder Fuenzalida (1B) 1–7 0.78
T 0 Landon Tanguilig George Graham (2B) 2–7 0.67
T 0 Landon Tanguilig Landon Tanguilig (HR) 3–7 0.56
T 5 Ricky Li Kael Monson (3B) 4–7 0.55
T 5 Ricky Li Ricky Li (HR) 5–7 0.41
T 20 George Graham Chico Press (3B) 6–7 0.86
T 20 George Graham Luis Rosales (2B) 7–7 0.43
T 20 George Graham Yamil Fontes (1B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.29
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Royals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 2 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' George Graham — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Landon Tanguilig — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 459 ft Efraín Sabella — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -17° · 74 ft Luis Rosales — single · EV 110 mph · LA +9° · 144 ft Rich Linnehan — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Kael Monson — triple · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 272 ft Ricky Li — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Reinaldo Talavera — single · EV 73 mph · LA -6° · 70 ft Randy Farley — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -3° · 91 ft Kael Monson — single · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Luis Rosales — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +18° · 210 ft George Graham — fly_out · EV 103 mph · LA +19° · 263 ft Kael Monson — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +4° · 68 ft Kael Monson — single · EV 107 mph · LA +3° · 102 ft Rich Linnehan — line_out · EV 108 mph · LA -1° · 103 ft Efraín Sabella — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft George Graham — double · EV 119 mph · LA +13° · 245 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Val Clement — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -16° · 84 ft Bonsa Tessema — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +26° · 231 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 213 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 330 ft Gabriel Harper — double · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Enrique Sabella — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA +2° · 82 ft Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 73 mph · LA +15° · 108 ft Mekhi Streko — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +0° · 89 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +54° · 294 ft Bonsa Tessema — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 141 ft Dawood Aktaş — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +5° · 71 ft Mekhi Streko — double · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 123 ft Val Clement — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Dawood Aktaş — single · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 217 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Royals
70% deserve-to-win  ·  9.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 16.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+2.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ricky Li 110 / +49° Center Home Run 1.6 → 4 +2.42
Kael Monson 98 / +22° Oppo Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.78
George Graham 103 / +19° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Luis Rosales 95 / +18° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Landon Tanguilig 119 / +27° Oppo Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Beavers
30% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 1 CS (+0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mekhi Streko 88 / +12° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Jaime Fuenzalida 100 / +28° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Dawood Aktaş 84 / +25° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Aaron Holzworth 88 / +22° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Gabriel Harper 100 / +44° Pull Double 2.6 → 2 -0.59
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →