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Expos 8, Orcas 7                                            2026-08-26 · #1492
at Abdurakhmanov Park
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Montreal                8      -    8    7    0
Vancouver               7      0    7    9    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gareca      3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Hawwas  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Solórzano   lf ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Creek       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Grizzlies   c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Geffrard    cf ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Goodson     2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Fieldin pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Katsuhisa   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Quinter pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Spence      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Chará       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Deener  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   8   7   1   0   0   7   5  10   0   1  0.259
  2B: Geffrard (24).
  HBP: Creek (8), Grizzlies (8).
  GIDP: Morales (1).
  a-Batted for Gareca in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Goodson in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Katsuhisa in the 6th.
  d-Struck out for Currier in the 8th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blackshear  p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mendez      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Delía   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
Peavy       cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Alonso-Corc ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Noonan      c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Vallado pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Whitley     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Godín   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Edmonson    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Irvin   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Granberry   1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-Krickst ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Quintero    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Badger  ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  g-McInern pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Turrentine  j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   7   9   2   0   0   5   5  12   1   0  0.300
  2B: Badger (7), Cuéllar (8).
  CS: Irvin (1).
  HBP: Badger (3).
  a-Singled for Mendez in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Noonan in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Whitley in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Edmonson in the 5th.
  e-Struck out for Granberry in the 9th.
  f-Batted for Quintero in the 3rd.
  g-Ran in the 5th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Chará (W, 3-0) ......    18   14   79  4.4    3    1    1    2    5    0    -
Huard ...............     6    1   21  3.5    3    4    4    2    1    0  2-1
Cabalceta ...........    13   12   47  3.6    3    2    2    1    7    0  3-1

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Blackshear (L, 4-9) .    11    4   40  3.6    3    4    4    2    0    0    -
Aupiu ...............    15   14   55  3.7    2    3    3    2    9    0  3-2
Peck ................     8    7   18  2.2    2    1    1    1    1    0  1-1

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Chará (Outs 1-14) → Huard (Outs 15-15) → Cabalceta (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Katsuhisa (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Spence (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Creek (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Blackshear (Outs 1-4) → Aupiu (Outs 5-18) → Peck (Outs 19-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Granberry (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mendez (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Edmonson (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Whitley (Outs 1-25)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  Seconds: MON o25 (8-7), VCO o25 (7-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 57°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Dry. seed 770245.
  Powerplays: Expos — Quinteros NF (O14)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 0.92
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 12 Yerry Cuéllar Nahitan Valladolid (3B) 0–1 —
B 12 Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles Yerry Cuéllar (2B) 0–2 —
B 12 Mateus Delía Lipe McInerney (3B) 0–3 —
B 13 Louis Badger Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 0–4 —
B 13 Prakash Granberry Andrea Peavy (3B) 0–5 —
B 19 Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles Louis Badger (3B) 0–6 —
B 23 Louis Badger Yerry Cuéllar (3B) 0–7 —
T 1 Quincy Geffrard Rónald Solórzano (3B) 1–7 0.81
T 1 Quincy Geffrard Maciek Grizzlies (1B) 2–7 0.69
T 1 Marquis Goodson Román Gareca (3B) 3–7 0.58
T 4 Fran Creek Quincy Geffrard (3B) 4–7 0.52
T 7 Quincy Geffrard Omni Fielding (3B) 5–7 0.45
T 9 Roscoe Spence Rónald Solórzano (3B) 6–7 0.33
T 11 Rónald Solórzano Quincy Geffrard (3B) 7–7 0.19
T 22 Gabe Deener Augusto Quinteros (3B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 0.92
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Expos — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Fran Creek — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 173 ft Román Gareca — single · EV 71 mph · LA +14° · 98 ft Quincy Geffrard — double · EV 95 mph · LA +28° · 301 ft Marquis Goodson — single · EV 82 mph · LA +23° · 193 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -14° · 87 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 117 ft Pedro Morales — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -5° · 56 ft Román Gareca — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 229 ft Quincy Geffrard — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Roscoe Spence — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Elliott Currier — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Douglas Chará — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Fran Creek — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +5° · 69 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 92 mph · LA -17° · 87 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Graydon Blackshear — fielders_choice · EV 96 mph · LA -10° · 92 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Herb Noonan — single · EV 104 mph · LA +20° · 284 ft Berkeley Whitley — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +7° · 81 ft Alexis Edmonson — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +23° · 210 ft Prakash Granberry — ground_out · EV 101 mph · LA +4° · 96 ft Jonás Quintero — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -1° · 79 ft Yerry Cuéllar — double · EV 91 mph · LA +10° · 117 ft Mateus Delía — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Stuart Irvin — single · EV 69 mph · LA +14° · 89 ft Lipe McInerney — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 119 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Graydon Blackshear — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -5° · 60 ft Louis Badger — double · EV 108 mph · LA +19° · 283 ft Yerry Cuéllar — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Stuart Irvin — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -16° · 75 ft Prakash Granberry — single · EV 92 mph · LA -7° · 87 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
35% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 5.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+2.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Quincy Geffrard 95 / +28° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Quincy Geffrard 76 / -5° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Maciek Grizzlies 92 / -17° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Fran Creek 85 / +18° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Román Gareca 71 / +14° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Orcas
65% deserve-to-win  ·  6.5 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 10.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yerry Cuéllar 91 / +10° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Herb Noonan 104 / +20° Center Single 1.7 → 1 -0.68
Stuart Irvin 69 / +14° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Alexis Edmonson 85 / +23° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Prakash Granberry 92 / -7° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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