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Marlins 7, Padres 6                                         2026-08-26 · #1494
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   7    7    6    0
San Diego               6    6    2    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Enquist     cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Chappell    nf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Mangin  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Dibert      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Suárez      2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Suggs       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Enterli ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Altamirano  rf ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  1.000
Hester      p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Corzo   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Trevino ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nantze      j  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  28   7   6   0   0   0   7   5  14   0   1  0.214
  SB: Suárez (11).
  a-Struck out for Chappell in the 7th.
  b-Walked for Suggs in the 7th.
  c-Walked for Enterline in the 9th.
  d-Grounded out for Nantze in the 9th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Banuelos    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lettiere    c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0  0.000
Salcido     ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Andrade     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Manzano     cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Schwinger   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bennette    p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Cleveland   j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   6   2   0   0   0   5   6   5   0   0  0.071
  GIDP: Banuelos (4), Andrade (10).


MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hester (W, 4-8) .....    31   25   94  3.0    2    6    1    6    4    0    -
Dawe ................     2    2   12  6.0    0    0    0    0    1    0  2-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bennette ............    28   22   99  3.5    6    6    6    3   13    0    -
Mori (L, 1-2) .......     5    3   19  3.8    0    1    1    2    1    0  1-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-25) → Dawe (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bennette (Outs 1-22) → Mori (Outs 23-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Andrade (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Salcido (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Manzano (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-25)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM PT. Weather: 91°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 939782.
  Powerplays: Marlins — Chappell NF (O14), Mangin NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.33
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Ludlow MacCracken Israel Fernández (2B) 0–1 —
B 18 Huntley Cleveland Jefry Manzano (3B) 0–2 —
B 18 Haxzel Andrade Reed Lettiere (3B) 0–3 —
B 22 Stefan Banuelos Warren Bennette (2B) 0–4 —
B 23 Ángelo Salcido Israel Fernández (2B) 0–5 —
B 25 Jefry Manzano Huntley Cleveland (3B) 0–6 —
T 6 Jason Enquist Jean Altamirano (2B) 1–6 0.86
T 7 Jean Altamirano Anthonie Hester (3B) 2–6 0.75
T 8 Cary Nantze Jason Enquist (3B) 3–6 0.63
T 18 Cary Nantze Kendall Suárez (2B) 4–6 1.00
T 21 Cary Nantze Wallace Enterline (2B) 5–6 1.00
T 21 Montavious Chieh-yu Jean Altamirano (2B) 6–6 0.50
T 24 Israel Trevino Cary Nantze (3B) 7–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.33
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Marlins — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Cary Nantze — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Jean Altamirano — single · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 83 ft Anthonie Hester — error · EV 103 mph · LA +17° · 239 ft Jason Enquist — single · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Israel Trevino — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +31° · 277 ft Cary Nantze — single · EV 78 mph · LA +18° · 145 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Alex Dibert — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +24° · 208 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 94 mph · LA -8° · 90 ft Cary Nantze — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -3° · 81 ft Cary Nantze — single · EV 91 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Kendall Suárez — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +36° · 267 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Stefan Banuelos — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -12° · 75 ft Haxzel Andrade — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +9° · 77 ft Cary Schwinger — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +5° · 61 ft Warren Bennette — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Israel Fernández — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Reed Lettiere — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -28° · 58 ft Huntley Cleveland — error · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -2° · 69 ft Cary Schwinger — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 87 ft Haxzel Andrade — fly_out · EV 63 mph · LA +28° · 132 ft Ángelo Salcido — line_out · EV 54 mph · LA +22° · 82 ft Stefan Banuelos — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 246 ft Stefan Banuelos — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Jefry Manzano — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 169 ft Stefan Banuelos — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Ángelo Salcido — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -12° · 73 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
44% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 6.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthonie Hester 103 / +17° Center Reached on Error 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Israel Trevino 89 / +31° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Jean Altamirano 88 / +2° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Montavious Chieh-yu 86 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Jason Enquist 80 / -11° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Padres
56% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 6.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-4.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stefan Banuelos 98 / +20° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Haxzel Andrade 81 / +9° Center Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Israel Fernández 76 / +9° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Warren Bennette 78 / +13° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Jefry Manzano 76 / +24° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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