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Giants 8, Orioles 7                                         2026-08-26 · #1495
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
San Francisco           8    8    6    0
Baltimore               7    7    8    0

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kelley      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Anger   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cardozo     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Figuero pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Reyes       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Leininger   rf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hoffken     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Jimenez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Marte       cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Matos   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Connelly    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Gallowa ph ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Short       ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Guerrant    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Rosado  pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Braxton ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Estrada ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Capdevila   j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   8   6   3   0   0   7   5   8   0   0  0.207
  2B: Short (4), Galloway (23), Capdevila (5).
  SB: Rosado (19).
  HBP: Kelley (4).
  a-Ran for Kelley in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Cardozo in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Hoffken in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Marte in the 4th.
  e-Batted for Connelly in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Guerrant in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 6th.
  h-Singled for Jimenez in the 9th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Foust       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Maciejc ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-López   pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Kautz       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Mateer      3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Heath   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Stokke      rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Roy         p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1   .000
  e-Michulk pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Purchas ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Kagame  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   7   8   1   0   0   6   6   8   1   2  0.308
  2B: Flowers (14).
  HBP: Stokke (2).
  GIDP: Mateer (4), Stokke (4).
  Squeeze: Sigourney (1 RBI).
  a-Batted for Foust in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Ison in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Mateer in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Alison in the 2nd.
  e-Ran for Roy in the 3rd.
  f-Batted for Barba in the 3rd.
  g-Ran in the 6th.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Guerrant ............    12    6   38  3.2    4    4    4    3    0    0    -
Warburg (W, 11-13) ..    15   17   53  3.5    3    2    2    2    7    0  3-1
Ishibashi (F, 30) ...     6    4   24  4.0    1    1    1    1    1    0    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Roy (L, 12-9) .......    15   12   54  3.6    2    3    3    3    4    0    -
Barella .............    16   12   61  3.8    3    3    3    2    3    0  1-0
Luqueño .............     3    3   15  5.0    1    2    2    0    1    0  2-2

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Guerrant (Outs 1-6) → Warburg (Outs 7-23) → Ishibashi (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Short (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Connelly (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Leininger (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Roy (Outs 1-12) → Barella (Outs 13-24) → Luqueño (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ison (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Stokke (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Giants batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 98°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 601378.
  Powerplays: Orioles — Michulka NF (O9)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 9.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Jhonny Reyes Ignacio Rosado (3B) 1–0 —
T 12 Brad Galloway Parker McNeal (2B) 2–0 —
T 12 Brad Galloway Raziel Jimenez (1B) 3–0 —
T 15 Stefan Braxton Jerome Short (3B) 4–0 —
T 15 Stefan Braxton Ignacio Rosado (3B) 5–0 —
T 24 Pramod Estrada Stefan Braxton (2B) 6–0 —
T 26 Hervé Capdevila Reuben Leininger (2B) 7–0 —
T 26 Hervé Capdevila Pramod Estrada (1B) 8–0 —
B 2 Kristian Alison Dyllan Ison (3B) 8–1 0.96
B 4 Alastair Roy Korey Flowers (3B) 8–2 0.91
B 5 Mackenzie Sigourney Ulises Barba (3B) 8–3 0.82
B 6 Dylan Purchase Maciek Stokke (3B) 8–4 0.71
B 13 Arkie Rubin Geoff Michulka (3B) 8–5 0.86
B 20 Mackenzie Sigourney Junior Kagame (3B) 8–6 1.29
B 26 Korey Flowers Edson López (1B) 8–7 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 9.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Giants — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Alafia Kelley — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Jhonny Reyes — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +27° · 238 ft Alexander Connelly — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA +3° · 70 ft Antolín Matos — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Brad Galloway — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 278 ft Stefan Braxton — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Ignacio Rosado — single · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Pramod Estrada — single · EV 91 mph · LA +11° · 127 ft Hervé Capdevila — double · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 135 ft Alafia Kelley — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -9° · 94 ft Jhonny Reyes — single · EV 99 mph · LA -17° · 94 ft Jerome Short — double · EV 119 mph · LA +24° · 426 ft Antolín Matos — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +14° · 180 ft Brad Galloway — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +22° · 190 ft Reuben Leininger — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +38° · 301 ft Jerome Short — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Reuben Leininger — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -28° · 74 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Rill Kautz — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Sidney Foust — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Dyllan Ison — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Korey Flowers — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Kreigh Mateer — single · EV 52 mph · LA -0° · 49 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Edson López — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Ahmad Heath — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Maciek Stokke — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 139 ft Kreigh Mateer — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +5° · 56 ft Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +50° · 228 ft Arkie Rubin — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +45° · 188 ft Ahmad Heath — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +13° · 68 ft Korey Flowers — double · EV 82 mph · LA +35° · 256 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
83% deserve-to-win  ·  9.4 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 13.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-4.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Antolín Matos 97 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Reuben Leininger 88 / +38° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.95
Jerome Short 119 / +24° Center Double 2.9 → 2 -0.93
Hervé Capdevila 96 / +11° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Antolín Matos 95 / +12° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Orioles
17% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.8 vs expected
contact: 4.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+4.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Korey Flowers 82 / +35° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Kreigh Mateer 52 / +0° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Dyllan Ison 76 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Sidney Foust 92 / +5° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Kristian Alison 92 / +7° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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