==============================================================================
Astros 12, Braves 5                                         2026-08-27 · #1497
at Meadow Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Atlanta                 5      0    5    8    1
Houston                12      0   12   12    1

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kalogeropou lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nilo        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Chu     pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alvelo      2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Spencer     1b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bray        rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Lamar   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Nightingale ss ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Almeida ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Justiniano  c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Powlus  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Correa      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Vargas  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Ramon-E pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Martín  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ortiz       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   5   8   2   0   0   5   2   6   0   0  0.250
  2B: Vargas (17), Nightingale (10).
  SB: Alvelo 2 (15), Martín (10).
  CS: Spencer (15), Justiniano (10).
  E: Vargas (1).
  a-Ran for Nilo in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Saprissa in the 6th.
  c-Singled for Nightingale in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Justiniano in the 5th.
  e-Doubled for Correa in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Vargas in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Almeida in the 6th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rivas       3b ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.750
Hammerbeck  p  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
O'Connor    2b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Patridge    rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Morales     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kingsbu ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Plum        ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gómez   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Moros       lf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    5   2   2   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Olsson      cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Colón   pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Prince  pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Takada  ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  36  12  12   7   0   1  12   3  10   0   0  0.333
  2B: Rivas (30), Hammerbeck (3), O'Connor (17), Patridge (11), Olsson (4), Prince (4), Takada (10).
  HR: Thom (8), off Correa.
  SB: Thom (5), Prince (2).
  E: O'Connor (5).
  a-Grounded out for Morales in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Plum in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Olsson in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Kingsbury in the 3rd.
  e-Batted in the 5th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Correa ..............    10    6  22%    4    3    3    1    3    1   33    -
Homans ..............    10    7  26%    2    3    3    1    2    0   27  1-1
Kyle (L, 3-3) .......     6    1   4%    5    5    5    1    0    0   20  1-0
Buford ..............    13   13  48%    1    1    1    0    5    0   47  1-1

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hammerbeck (W, 3-5) .    16   12  44%    4    2    1    0    2    0   43    -
Solaun ..............     7    4  15%    3    3    3    1    1    0   26  2-1
Basham (F, 12) ......    12   11  41%    1    0    0    1    4    0   39  2-0

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Correa (Outs 1-6) → Homans (Outs 7-13) → Kyle (Outs 14-14) → Buford (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Justiniano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Hammerbeck (Outs 1-12) → Solaun (Outs 13-16) → Basham (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Plum (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Olsson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted first; Braves batted second.
  Seconds: ATL o26 (5-12), HOU o26 (12-0).
  First pitch 6:40 PM CT. Weather: 97°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 821776.
  Walk-Back runs: off Homans 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 24.00
    27 outs left: 1.44
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 2.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 5 Iapani Thom Scoville Rivas (2B) 0–1 —
B 5 Iapani Thom Remington Plum (1B) 0–2 —
B 5 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 0–3 —
B 5 Herb Olsson Iapani Thom (3B) 0–4 —
B 8 Marcos Kingsbury Rubén Colón (2B) 0–5 —
B 12 Scoville Rivas Jeff Prince (3B) 0–6 —
B 12 Scoville Rivas Scoville Rivas (1B) 0–7 —
B 13 Dante O'Connor Zack Hammerbeck (1B) 0–8 —
B 13 Butch Patridge Dante O'Connor (2B) 0–9 —
B 13 Jeff Prince Butch Patridge (3B) 0–10 —
B 13 Masamichi Takada Jeff Prince (2B) 0–11 —
B 17 Zack Hammerbeck Masamichi Takada (2B) 0–12 —
T 5 Donny Nightingale Haxzel Saprissa (1B) 1–12 1.64
T 5 Maximo Justiniano Donny Nightingale (3B) 2–12 1.50
T 11 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Donny Nightingale (2B) 3–12 1.88
T 14 Mariano Vargas Mirko Alvelo (3B) 4–12 2.08
T 15 Wilson Almeida Todd Chu (3B) 5–12 2.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 24.00
27 outs left 1.44
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 2.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Braves — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -5° · 75 ft Mirko Alvelo — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 93 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 203 ft Hugo Bray — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +28° · 312 ft Haxzel Saprissa — single · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 93 ft Donny Nightingale — double · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 339 ft Maximo Justiniano — error · EV 80 mph · LA +6° · 76 ft Mariano Vargas — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft Beals Powlus — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 192 ft Wilson Almeida — single · EV 58 mph · LA +22° · 94 ft Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +35° · 231 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Fernando Correa — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +31° · 357 ft Maximo Justiniano — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -28° · 59 ft Donny Nightingale — single · EV 80 mph · LA +10° · 90 ft Haxzel Saprissa — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +23° · 114 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 98 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 124 ft Hugo Bray — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 201 ft Mirko Alvelo — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +22° · 161 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 93 mph · LA +26° · 274 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 135 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 4 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Scoville Rivas — single · EV 112 mph · LA +23° · 360 ft Zack Hammerbeck — single · EV 95 mph · LA +14° · 172 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 153 ft Iapani Thom — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +42° · 463 ft Herb Olsson — double · EV 90 mph · LA +34° · 306 ft Marcos Kingsbury — error · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 164 ft Jeff Prince — double · EV 91 mph · LA +39° · 323 ft Masamichi Takada — double · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 381 ft Rubén Colón — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +33° · 269 ft Butch Patridge — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -5° · 68 ft Dante O'Connor — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +31° · 271 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 89 mph · LA +23° · 227 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 302 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 101 mph · LA +38° · 393 ft Butch Patridge — double · EV 82 mph · LA +44° · 269 ft Iapani Thom — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 189 ft Zack Hammerbeck — double · EV 94 mph · LA +46° · 354 ft Rubén Colón — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -15° · 82 ft Butch Patridge — fly_out · EV 105 mph · LA +30° · 383 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -11° · 77 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Mirko Moros — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
24% deserve-to-win  ·  6.6 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 12.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 2 CS (-0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Fernando Correa 101 / +31° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Kreigh Kalogeropoulos 100 / +10° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Mariano Vargas 92 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Hugo Bray 97 / +28° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Donny Nightingale 94 / +36° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Astros
76% deserve-to-win  ·  11.8 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 24.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (-2.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Butch Patridge 105 / +30° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Butch Patridge 82 / +44° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Marcos Kingsbury 100 / +12° Oppo Reached on Error 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Herb Olsson 90 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Jeff Prince 91 / +39° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →