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Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 3                                   2026-08-27 · #1498
at Arizona Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Los Angeles             6    6    4    3
Arizona                 3    3    5    0

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eggleston   3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Martin      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Maier       c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Guarner ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mokiao-Atim 1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Boyajya ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gerardy     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ochoa       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Chang   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Swanson     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Murray      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Gleason ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tiernan     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Richard pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Roby    pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Querrey pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Abbott      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kromah      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  28   6   4   1   0   1   6   4  10   0   0  0.143
  2B: Guarnera (10).
  HR: Mokiao-Atimalala (5), off Frame.
  E: Eggleston 2 (10), Abbott (4).
  a-Doubled for Maier in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Mokiao-Atimalala in the 4th.
  c-Walked for Ochoa in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Murray in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Guarnera in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 4th.
  g-Ran in the 6th.

DIAMONDBACKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maupin      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Schmelz ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Frame       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Ullstro ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
McNutt      lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Start       ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Alderma ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bektas      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Henry   pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Foyth       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Linton      rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Caniza      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Aogo        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  e-O'Conne pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Gronows pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Kruger  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Gibson  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  28   3   5   0   0   0   2   4  12   0   0  0.179
  SB: Gronowski (24).
  CS: Gronowski (21), Start (4).
  GIDP: Linton (5), O'Connell (4).
  a-Singled for Maupin in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Frame in the 6th.
  c-Struck out for Start in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Bektas in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Aogo in the 8th.
  f-Ran for Schmelzle in the 6th.
  g-Struck out in the 7th.
  h-Ran in the 7th.

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tiernan (W, 9-0) ....    27   22  81%    3    3    3    3   12    0  108    -
Goss (F, 13) ........     5    5  19%    2    0    0    1    0    0   16  2-0

DIAMONDBACKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Frame (L, 7-10) .....    24   17  63%    4    5    5    4    8    1   84    -
Cheek ...............     8   10  37%    0    1    1    0    2    0   24  3-1

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tiernan (Outs 1-22) → Goss (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maier (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murray (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-27)

DIAMONDBACKS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Frame (Outs 1-17) → Cheek (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maupin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bektas (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Aogo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Caniza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Start (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | McNutt (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foyth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Linton (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Diamondbacks (home) batted second; Dodgers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM MT. Weather: 86°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 881715.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 12.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Ben Mokiao-Atimalala Quentin Maier (1B) 1–0 —
T 2 Ben Mokiao-Atimalala Ben Mokiao-Atimalala (HR) 2–0 —
T 10 Wyatt Guarnera Eugene Roby (1B) 3–0 —
T 15 Eugene Roby Suntarine Richards (3B) 4–0 —
T 17 Wallace Monroe Daylan Querrey (3B) 5–0 —
T 17 Jed Boyajyan Eugene Roby (3B) 6–0 —
B 19 Phillip Bektas Ron Gronowski (3B) 6–1 2.25
B 19 Joao Foyth Isadore Gibson (3B) 6–2 1.88
B 22 Leverton Aogo Miguel McNutt (3B) 6–3 2.40
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 12.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Arizona Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 340' · CF 429' · RF 341' · 8' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest Ivy Wall
Dodgers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
340' 429' 341' Quentin Maier — single · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +36° · 432 ft Bautista Ochoa — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Hubertus Murray — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +28° · 314 ft Jaylen Tiernan — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 177 ft Lenny Eggleston — fielders_choice · EV 110 mph · LA +8° · 105 ft Berkeley Abbott — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +21° · 309 ft Wyatt Guarnera — double · EV 101 mph · LA +27° · 335 ft Eugene Roby — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 113 ft Tomm Kromah — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +31° · 194 ft Daylan Querrey — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -3° · 66 ft Jed Boyajyan — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 59 ft Berkeley Abbott — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 267 ft Elliott Gleason — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +23° · 252 ft Thomas Martin — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 158 ft Tanner Gerardy — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -17° · 61 ft Jaylen Tiernan — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft
Diamondbacks — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
340' 429' 341' Alfredo Frame — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +8° · 70 ft Toby Start — single · EV 58 mph · LA -7° · 55 ft Miguel Linton — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Irving Ullstrom — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -4° · 62 ft Wallace Schmelzle — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Don O'Connell — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA -7° · 52 ft Eugene Henry — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 73 ft Miguel McNutt — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Irving Ullstrom — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft Miguel McNutt — error · EV 58 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Phillip Bektas — error · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Joao Foyth — error · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Miguel Linton — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Yomar Caniza — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 49 ft Miguel Linton — single · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Dodgers
94% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.9 vs expected
contact: 14.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-6.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Berkeley Abbott 107 / +21° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Berkeley Abbott 100 / +21° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Ben Mokiao-Atimalala 106 / +36° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.12
Thomas Martin 96 / +13° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Hubertus Murray 98 / +28° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Diamondbacks
6% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.0 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Toby Start 58 / -7° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Miguel Linton 92 / +15° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Miguel Linton 76 / -7° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Eugene Henry 76 / -5° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Alfredo Frame 77 / +8° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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